Are Michigan's Actions Telling Us Just How NOA Plays Out?

© Junfu Han/USA TODAY NETWORK

Michigan's actions of late might be telling you just how this sign-stealing investigation is about to play out. A week before Michigan was to respond to the NCAA Notice of Allegations (NOA), the university did a 180-degree turn with NIL and started using it aggressively in recruiting. Michigan then announced a five-year contract extension for Warde Manuel, the Donald R. Shepherd Director of Athletics. From the start of this entire matter rival fans have been screaming for the NCAA to hammer Michigan, but as of late Michigan's actions have shown no worry of any stiff penalties coming.

The narrative from rivals has remained the same and never wavered from the start—the hammer is coming and the 2023 National Championship will be vacated. The talking points used regardless of the situation have also stayed the same, if Michigan calls themselves national champions, rivals say it's being vacated. When Michigan loses it because they can’t cheat. If Michigan wins it doesn’t matter because a postseason ban is coming. Rivals use the hope of the hammer to deal with the losses they have suffered over the last few years.

If actions are worth a thousand words, Michigan just wrote a three-book trilogy and people are refusing to read it. Despite being in a down year and unable to steal signs, Michigan somehow still found a way to beat Ohio State and Michigan State. Michigan beating both teams has added to their rival's fanbases' desire for the NCAA hammer to come down. But their desire for stiff punishment will turn to disgust when the punishment that's handed out is nothing like they thought. Many missed it, but two actions have started to paint a picture of how this will play out.

NIL Buy In

Michigan is not transactional, they are transformational—at least that was their belief in recruiting. That mentality has hindered Michigan in recruiting over the year and caught up with them this season at the QB position. Michigan removed the transformational at the end of the season and turned into transactional. Michigan used their new transactional philosophy to flip five-star top overall quarterback prospect Bryce Underwood.

Jolin and Larry Ellison made it possible to get Underwood and at some point asked about the NOA and the punishment coming from it. To flip Underwood, Michigan most likely needed to guarantee that certain penalties would not be coming. The money used for Underwood just happened to come from Larry and Jolin Ellison. Larry Ellison is one of the richest people in the world and you don’t get to that point by just throwing away money. Most would think that before Ellison gives any money, he would want the same kind of guarantee that a player he hands millions to won't leave because of postseason bans. Ellison, who also just acquired Paramount—network that shows Big Ten Conference games, probably knows the right people to ask to get the information he wants so he won't be wasting money.

Manuel Extension

On Dec. 5 the University of Michigan announced that Manuel received a five-year contract extension to remain as the Donald R. Shepherd Director of Athletics. Manuel was originally hired as the Athletic Director on Jan. 29, 2016, and received his first contract extension on Feb. 18, 2021 that runs through June 30, 2026.

Former head coach Jim Harbaugh got suspended a year ago for the sign-stealing scandal, but it came under Manuel's watch. If the NCAA hands Michigan the program-altering penalties that rivals have predicted, Michigan wouldn't hand the AD who let it happen an extension. You can not give an AD who let “the biggest scandal in college football history” happen under his leadership a contract extension. The only way this contract extension happens is if Manuel either already knows the outcome or is 100 percent certain he knows exactly what the outcome will be. Either way, after Manuel communicated the outcome, or possible outcome, and Michigan decided his efforts warranted another five-year deal.

Regardless of what happens one thing is certain—this has taken way too long to get the actual outcome. What should happen and what will happen are usually two different things, especially with the NCAA.  

Certain people at Michigan and the NCAA already know the outcome. The same people also know when and how everyone will find out, and it will be the typical Friday night media drop. The reason there are a lot of people who are not going to like how this plays out is that in the end, it comes down to one-thing: money. And Michigan is good for business.