Boise State Looking for Respect for Group of 5 With CFP Run

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After a somewhat disappointing slate of first-round matchups in the 2025 College Football Playoff, the No. 9 Boise State Broncos (12-1) will hope to inject excitement into a promising group of quarterfinal games when they take on the surging No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions (12-2) in the Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 31.

The Broncos are coming off a bye week as a result of their Mountain West Conference Championship win, while Penn State took down the No. 10 SMU Mustangs (11-3) in dominating fashion to open its playoff campaign.

How does Boise State match up against a determined Nittany Lions team with much higher expectations? Will the Broncos' regular season success translate to the postseason? And most importantly, what effect will Boise State's performance have on the future of the Group of 5 as a whole?

Boise State Season in Review

The Broncos kicked off their 2024 season with a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair against the Georgia Southern Eagles (8-5). Their 56-45 victory demonstrated their explosive offensive potential, but the closer-than-expected win did little to quiet the fans who doubted that Boise State could be a legitimate playoff contender.

In Week 2, Boise State silenced the skeptics. The Broncos held their own against the No. 1 Oregon Ducks (13-0), leading by a touchdown in the fourth quarter before eventually losing 37-34 in heartbreaking fashion. Running back Ashton Jeanty broke out for 192 yards and 3 touchdowns, a performance that placed him at the forefront of the conversation for national awards just two weeks in the season.

Boise State kicked into full gear after the hard-fought loss, earning statement wins over the Washington State Cougars (8-5) and No. 24 UNLV Rebels (11-3) during the regular season. The Broncos struggled some late, beating the Nevada Wolfpack (3-10) by a touchdown and needing a late touchdown to get by the Wyoming Cowboys (3-9). But they ultimately refused to falter, relying on historic performances from Jeanty combined with a resurgent effort from the defense late in the season to win the MWC Championship in a rematch against UNLV. Their conference championship win combined with their well-deserved top-10 ranking earned them a coveted first-round bye in the CFP.

Group of 5 Expectations in CFP Era

With the release of the CFP bracket, Boise State became just the second team from the Group of 5 to make the playoff, joining the 2021 Cincinnati Bearcats.

The 2021 Bearcats finished the season 13-0, earning impressive wins over ranked Notre Dame and Houston teams along the way. Despite all they accomplished, many fans felt that Cincinnati did not deserve a place in the CFP, citing their relatively weak strength of schedule compared to other teams vying for a playoff spot.

In the CFP, the Bearcats looked like a team that was not ready for the national spotlight. The No. 1-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide embarrassed Cincinnati 27-6, a result that was a shockingly poor display from a Bearcats team who had scored less than 30 points only one other time that season. The disappointing performance sparked debate about whether the Group of 5 belonged in the CFP and severely hurt the reputation of Group of 5 teams attempting to assert themselves in future CFP conversations.

Despite being the No. 3-seed, the Broncos enter their game against the No. 6-seed Nittany Lions as a 12-point underdog. The betting line represents the perceived strength of a Penn State team coming off a dominating win in the first round, but it also represents the general lack of belief that a Group of 5 team has what it takes to compete in the postseason.

How Boise State performs—win or lose—will have significant consequences on not only the perceptions of Group of 5 teams in the playoff, but also how the CFP is structured going forward. If Boise State proves themselves worthy of their seed with a strong performance against Penn State, the CFP committee may continue to look favorably on potential Group of 5 contenders in the future. If the Broncos are embarrassed on a national stage, however, the result may lead to sweeping changes of the playoff structure that could leave the Group of 5 out entirely in the future.

Keys to CFP Success

The Broncos have the pieces to succeed in their important quarterfinal matchup. Jeanty's tenacity and strength carried Boise State through adversity during the season, and the Broncos will have to continue to rely on his ability to stay competitive. Jeanty's historic season included 2,497 rushing yards, which is just 131 yards short of legendary running back Barry Sanders' all-time rushing record, and Jeanty's 29 rushing touchdowns are the second most in the FBS. To make sure he has an opportunity to impact the game, the Broncos will need to utilize a methodical tempo on offense to control the clock and avoid letting the game get out of hand early.

Boise State will also need to play mistake-free football. Quarterback Maddux Madsen has been one of the unsung heroes of the Boise State offense, throwing for 22 touchdowns with just 3 interceptions on the season. Madsen has proven to be a reliable threat with the ball in his hands, and the Broncos will need him to continue to take care of the football to keep up with the explosive Penn State offense.

On the other side of the ball, the Broncos will hope to rely on their disruptive defensive line that garnered 51 sacks over the course of the season, a total that is second-best in the FBS. If defensive ends Jayden Virgin-Morgan and Ahmed Hassanein can create havoc in the Penn State backfield, it could be a long day for the Nittany Lions offense.

When Boise State kicks off their quarterfinal matchup against Penn State on New Year's Eve, they will be fighting not only to earn a spot in the CFP semifinals, but also to earn respect for the entire Group of 5. The Broncos have proven they can have success in the spotlight of college football. Will they have what it takes to rise to the challenge when it matters most?