College Football Playoff Scenarios for the Big 12 Conference

© Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch/USA TODAY SPORTS

The race for the Big 12 Conference title is heating up, and with that, the race for a potential College Football Playoff spot. A whopping 12 teams are still in the running for the conference championship game in Arlington, Texas on Dec. 7, which just goes to show you how competitive this conference has been this season.

Big 12, Big Potential Problem

In lies the fault of the Big 12, however. You may notice the word "potential" placed before "College Football Playoff" in the previous paragraph. That's because the Big 12 is not guaranteed a playoff spot. According to the parameters set by the College Football Playoff Committee, the five highest-ranked conference champions will get an automatic bid.

Obviously, there are four "power" conferences, so it was largely inferred that the Big Ten Conference, Southeastern Conference, Atlantic Coast Conference and Big 12 would have the top four bids on lock with the top Group of 5 teams taking the fifth spot.

That may not be the case, though, as we may soon see. Teams like the No. 16 Army Black Knights (9-0, 8-0 American Athletic Conference), No. 25 Tulane Green Wave (8-2, 6-0 AAC), No. 13 Boise State Broncos (8-1, 5-0 Mountain West conference) and No. 19 Washington State Cougars (8-1 Pac-12 Conference) may pose an issue due to their conference alignments and overall records.

That's three conferences that have the potential of being ahead of the Big 12 when all is said and done. Depending on what the strength of schedules and strength of wins looks like as well, it could spell trouble. Should the Big 12 eat itself from the inside, then that makes the potential of a Big 12-less College Football Playoff all the more possible.

Talking about the potential College Football Playoff scenarios for the Big 12 could get quite messy, but here, let's try and best summarize what exactly needs to happen for the Big 12 to get one and maybe even two teams in. However, because this is still quite possible, let's also take into account the prospect of the Big 12 having zero teams in the CFP.

For reference, here are the overall probabilities of the top Big 12 teams in the CFP rankings making the playoff, as of Nov. 11 (via The Athletic):

No. 6 BYU Cougars: 63 percent

No. 18 Colorado Buffaloes: 36 percent

No. 20 Kansas State Wildcats: 12 percent

Iowa State Cyclones: 8 percent

Arizona State Sun Devils: 3 percent

As you can see, there's still a chance for prosperity in the Big 12 with one or even two teams making the CFP should everything go according to plan, but also a big chance for absolute chaos to ensue should it not. How will things turn out?

Scenario No. 1: 1 Team In

Odds: Roughly an 89.9 Percent Chance

This scenario comes first as it is the most likely scenario. For this scenario to happen, things more or less have to stay the course of where they are going. Minor shakeups can happen, but overall should a team have two losses or less, this should guarantee a playoff spot in the event that this team is crowned conference champion.

The most likely suspect here is BYU, who sit atop the Big 12 at 9-0 with a 4-0 conference record. The Cougars have beaten three ranked opponents this season, more than any other Big 12 team this year thus far. Should they win out against the Kansas Jayhawks (3-6, 2-4), Arizona State (7-2, 4-2) and Houston (4-5, 3-3), along with a Big 12 title win, they will be a shoo-in for the College Football Playoff and have pretty high seeding at that. Even if they lose one in the regular season, their chances still sit at around 96 percent as long as they win the Big 12 title.

Other teams that could be the coveted Big 12 golden goose include all the two-loss teams in the conference. Colorado (7-2, 5-1), Arizona State, Iowa State (7-2, 4-2) and Kansas State (7-2, 4-2) all have a shot at usurping the Cougars should they win out and win the title game. This would have an impact on how the Big 12 is seeded, but they would in all likelihood still be there unless both Boise State and Army win out.

Even then, it would be up to the committee, who hasn't favored the Big 12 in recent weeks, could have a change of heart and would have to rank not one, but two Group of 5 schools ahead of the Big 12 champion. This seems unlikely to the untrained eye but is more likely than you think should the Big 12 eat itself from the inside out while the aforementioned Group of 5 teams continue to climb. However, the committee taketh away, but also giveth, and could be generous to the Big 12 should it be in the good graces of the committee.

Scenario No. 2: 2 Teams In

Odds: Roughly a 4.2 Percent Chance

We go from the most likely scenario to the least likely here with two Big 12 teams making the College Football Playoff. Let's face facts, after Iowa State's loss to Kansas this past weekend, that really hurt the Big 12's potential to get two teams in. Just one Big 12 team is ranked in the top 12 at the moment, all other contenders not named BYU have two or more losses and should any team not named BYU lose just once, the chances of having two in the playoff more or less drop to none.

Should BYU lose in the conference championship, however, then the chances for two teams actually go up so long as the team that beats them in the title game has won out in the regular season. It is still quite long odds, though. In this case, BYU cannot lose in the regular season and the aforementioned Group of 5 teams would likely have to implode on themselves, along with perhaps a few current top 12 Power Four schools.

Kansas can be more or less to blame for this massive drop in probability and can shoulder even more of the blame should they beat BYU on Nov. 16 in Provo, Utah. A 3-6 team that has had its fair share of heartbreak this season could even do the unthinkable, and should chips fall where they may, keep the Big 12 out of the College Football Playoff entirely.

Scenario No. 3: Zero Teams In

Odds: Roughly a 6.8 Percent Chance

Now we get to the nightmare scenario for the Big 12, a conference that prides itself in being included within the Power Four and outlasting the Pac-12 in the endless battle for survival in college athletics. This scenario would certainly do damage to that resume should it happen. Lucky for Big 12 fans, it's rather unlikely. Unluckily for them, though, it's still more possible than two teams making it. Here's how this could happen.

Obviously, BYU losing more than a single game hurts immensely. If your team is out of contention for a playoff spot and you now just want to see your conference succeed, then you're rooting for BYU as that is your best bet. If not, though and you just want to watch the world burn, you're rooting for Kansas, Arizona State and/or Houston over these next three weeks.

BYU crumbling doesn't entirely knock the Big 12 out of playoff contention, however, as the teams below BYU will also have to lose. BYU, Colorado, Arizona State, Iowa State and Kansas State can still have one more loss and make it to the College Football Playoff. For teams other than BYU though, they wouldn't control their own destiny should they lose one more, and should BYU find themselves in the same position of losing two or more, they won't either. A three-loss team has a less than 1 percent chance of making it to the College Football Playoff while a two-loss team's odds aren't much better, as can be seen above.

Basically, should BYU lose once, the odds still remain in the Big 12's favor to have at least one team in the College Football Playoff. Should they lose twice, however, this throws a major wrench into things. BYU losing twice would mean Colorado would likely need to be the team to win out, given that they're the next highest in the current College Football Playoff rankings. Should that not happen, the odds lessen and the onus to win out falls onto Kansas State, the next-highest team. Should that not happen, however, the Big 12 likely does not control their own destiny anymore and would have to depend on what happens with the other conferences.

Should this scenario arise, and for Colorado, Kansas State, Arizona State and Iowa State fans it basically has, then the Big 12 fans should be rooting against Army, Tulane, Boise State and Washington State. If the Big Ten, SEC and ACC secure their bids and not lose ground themselves, then this is the Big 12's last resort should BYU and the top two-loss teams fall apart.

Given the favor the committee has given to the Big Ten, SEC, and to a degree, the ACC as well, unless something catastrophic happens within those conferences, the Big 12 is likely the conference that will be fighting for a bid should this occur given the top-ranked conferences rule.

An at-large bid is likely not in the Big 12's future, as was mentioned in the two-team scenario. They would need to secure one of the top conference bids, which becomes less likely the more the top teams lose. There are two games for error at most for each Big 12 team in contention, and with three games plus the championship left to go, anything can happen.

Is the Big 12 'Safe?'

Before some go reading too much into the potential nightmare scenarios, let's issue a quick reminder that college football is highly unpredictable. As said before, anything can happen and the most reliable source is numbers, as they do not lie.

The Big 12 is more or less "safe" from being snubbed of a College Football Playoff spot. BYU has a little bit of room for error, there are multiple two-loss teams that have a strong enough strength of schedule and wins that, should they win out, will likely be in and overall, there's also a lot working against the teams that could keep the Big 12 out.

In the end, fate and luck are fickle subjects, but that's really what it all comes down to. Odds are certainly not foolproof and could change at any time. The best we can do is measure trends and probability, of which both are trending in the right direction for at least one Big 12 school to find their way into the College Football Playoff.

Stranger things have happened though.