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It’s been 30 years since the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Oregon Ducks last squared off in the Rose Bowl. Penn State leads the all-time series 3-1 against the Ducks. The two will meet in the Big Ten Championship game as the No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1, 8-1) face the No. 1 Oregon Ducks (12-0, 9-0) for a potential first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.
See how our picks stack up compared to odds across betting sites.
CFP Implications
Penn State has never played in the CFP and the last time Oregon was there the Ducks fell 42-20 to Ohio State in the inaugural 2015 CFP National Championship game. Penn State hasn’t been this close to a possible spot in the CFP since 2016, the last time the Nittany Lions appeared in the Big Ten Championship game against the Wisconsin Badgers.
Keys for the Lions
For Penn State to pull off an upset win is to control the line of scrimmage. Penn State’s offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has made that his strategy throughout the season. Control the line of scrimmage with the running game and pass when the situation calls for it.
Running back Nick Singleton should be as close to 100 percent as he can be. The Nittany Lions will surely need him against a stout Oregon defensive front. Penn State's linebackers need to come ready to play when facing Oregon's duel-threat quarterback Dillon Gabriel. The duel-threat style is something Penn State hasn't faced a ton throughout this season.
Keys for the Ducks
For the Oregon Ducks and head coach Dan Lanning to win this game is simple. It’s something that just about every big team that James Franklin has faced over the last five-plus years is to make the Nittany Lions uncomfortable. In the big games, the problem for Penn State has been their inability to adjust to what the opposition throws at them.
Whether it’s a big play or a crazy turnover that doesn’t bounce the Nittany Lions way, the opposition pounces and Penn State tends to “psych itself out” and will typically panic. Gabriel needs to bring his A-game, but running back Jordan James needs to break through that Nittany Lions defensive line that hasn’t been tested consistently throughout this season.
On the defensive end, pass rushers Matayo Uiagalelei and Jordan Burch combined for 19 sacks thus far. With Penn State’s starting right tackle Anthony Donkoh injured and backup tackle Nolan Rucci starting in his second game of the season this could be a recipe for disaster for the Penn State offensive line.
Score Prediction
Oregon 28, Penn State 17
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