Is Knowles the Problem for Ohio State in Big Games?

© Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch/USA TODAY NETWORK

Ohio State head coach Ryan Day finds his seat a little warmer today after losing yet another top 25 matchup. Day is left to ponder what he needs to do to get over the hump and win Ohio State's most important games. It's almost becoming a tradition for Ohio State fans to watch the Buckeyes (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten Conference) find a way to lose in closely contested clashes with highly-ranked opponents.  

The 2024 season has Day under immense pressure to show Ohio State fans he can win the biggest games.  After another disappointing season in 2023, Day brought in long-time friend and mentor Chip Kelly to run the offense. Day made the move as pressure mounted to finally accomplish the goals that come with leading Ohio State football. The Buckeyes are one of a handful of programs that regularly commence seasons with realistic prospects of winning national championships. 

The first real test for Day’s team came this past week when Ohio State headed to Autzen Stadium to face No. 2 Oregon (6-0, 3-0). Ohio State entered the game as a 3-point favorite. It was a game the team was built to win. But as the clock hit triple zeros, Day was left yet again to wonder what went wrong. Kelly's hire should have been the change needed to prevent losses like this. Did Day make the wrong move by not addressing both coordinator positions in the offseason? Is it the defense keeping Ohio State from accomplishing its goals?

Defensive Disappointment

Since September 2022, Ohio State is 4-5 when playing top 25 teams. In two of the games the defense had a chance to get Ohio State the win and in one it had every opportunity to give the offense the ball back with adequate time on the clock. In all three, the defense didn’t, and in all three, Ohio State lost by less than one score.

In those nine contests against top 25 teams, all of which were played after defensive coordinator Jim Knowles took over for Kerry Coombs in December 2021, the Buckeyes gave up 230 points (25.56 points per game). Knowles' defense, when playing top 25 teams, let opposing offenses average 6.12 yards per play while giving up 394.89 yards per game. In comparison, in its last nine ranked matchups No. 5 Georgia (5-1, 3-1 Southeastern Conference) gave up 197 points (21.89 ppg), 359 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play.

Sacks and interceptions have declined each year since Knowles took over. Before Knowles' arrival in Columbus, Ohio State had 54 sacks and 15 interceptions in 2019 and 36 sacks and 12 INTs in 2021. Knowles' defense recorded 34 sacks and 11 INTs in 2022 and 28 sacks and 7 INTs in 2023. So far this season, the Buckeyes have 17 sacks with 4 INTs. Getting to the QB was once a calling card for Ohio State. But, under Knowles, that no longer seems to be the case.

Deja Vu in Big Games

In Ohio State's big-game losses, a feeling that the Buckeyes let the games slip away recurs. In those marquee matchups, the defense had frequent opportunities to make big plays but didn’t. Knowles was brought to Columbus to win such contests and has yet to do so. 

In the 2022 College Football Playoff Semifinals against Georgia, Ohio State was in the lead with only 2:43 left, and the Buckeyes' defense needed one stop for a trip to the championship to play TCU. However, Knowles' defense couldn’t keep the Bulldogs from scoring the game-winning TD. Georgia went on to win the national championship.

Last season, "The Game" featured both Ohio State and Michigan ranked in the top 5. Michigan was engulfed in a sign-stealing scandal, and many believed the Wolverines' purported cheating was the reason behind Michigan's victories over Ohio State the previous two years. However, in the 2023 meeting between the Buckeyes and Wolverines, Connor Stalions was gone, and the Buckeyes were on a mission to prove the Wolverines were the frauds the Buckeyes fans thought they were. Ohio State was down early but fought back and pulled to within 3.  Then Michigan got the ball with eight minutes left in the fourth quarter and proceeded to go on a seven-minute, capped by a field goal. Knowles' defense had no answer for the Michigan running attack on that decisive, lengthy drive.

This past weekend was no different, as Ohio State took the lead in the fourth quarter and needed Knowles' defense to get a stop. Oregon started on its own 25-yard line and got to the Ohio State 1 before kicking the eventual game-winning field goal. On the drive, Ohio State forced Oregon to make only two third-down conversions. If the defense had made plays on that drive, the Buckeyes' offense would not have been placed in the position where a controversial offensive pass interference ended up paving the way to another big-game loss for Ohio State.  

Two Big Options for Day

Knowles simply hasn't gotten the job done. With Day's seat growing hot, now is the time for him to move in a different direction. If Day were to act now, the new DC would have approximately two weeks to install a more effective defensive system and style before Ohio State's next big game at No. 3 Penn State (6-0, 3-0). With the amount of NFL talent on the Buckeyes' roster, it’s a move that could be made with little to no growing pains. For most programs, a mid-season coaching move is next to impossible, but with Ohio State's brand recognition, Day has options, including two big-name possibilities.

One target could be the recently fired New York Jets head coach and former San Francisco DC Robert Saleh. Saleh started his coaching career at the collegiate level in positions at Michigan State, Central Michigan and Georgia. OSU's reputation, talented roster and national title expectations could just be enough to convince the respected defensive coach to bring his talents to Columbus even if it's only for the rest of this season.

The second name is well known to every Buckeyes fan. Mike Vrabel, the former Ohio State stand-out defensive end, is currently the coaching and personnel consultant for the Cleveland Browns. A move from Knowles to Vrabel would bring instant praise for Day.  As a former Buckeye, the opportunity to help lead his alma mater to a national championship would be hard for Vrabel to turn down. Going the Vrabel route would be bold on Day's part since Vrabel's name has been mentioned as a possible replacement for Day. If Day makes the hire and doesn’t accomplish the ultimate goal of winning a national championship, he might have hired his own replacement.

Before the season, Ohio State went all in. The goal was not only to beat Michigan or to win a B1G championship. It was to bring home the national championship. From former coaches to players to analysts, this team was billed as one of the most talented teams, if not the most talented, in Ohio State history.  If Day can’t win it with this much talent, the question will be: can he ever bring home the sport's biggest prize? Day needs to decide if Knowles is the right guy moving forward. It could be a pivotal decision for Day's future.