Aug 304 min read

Lock 'Em In: College Football Best Bets for Week 1

Updated: Sep 16

Notre Dame — © Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

We. Are. Back. After last week’s appetizer we have a full slate of games this week and the NFL is right around the corner. I for one, couldn’t be happier.

Welcome to College Football Dawgs' Best Bets, where each week I will give you my best bets for college football and the NFL.

A few quick things before we get into the plays for this week. All bets will be to win 1 unit unless otherwise noted. Always practice bankroll management, and be sure to shop around for the best lines and prices on football betting apps. There is no such thing as a lock so be on the lookout for any “Lock of the Century” bettors.

Play 'em or fade 'em. Let's go.

Best Bet No. 1: Stanford Cardinal +9.5 (-110)

Our first play will be tonight's game featuring the Stanford Cardinal taking on the TCU Horned Frogs at 9:30 p.m. EST. Something I like to look at early in the season is what teams have returning from the previous season. Thankfully, Steve Makinen of VSiN has created a stability scoring system for returning players and coaches. His scoring system goes up to 19 points and Stanford is checking in with a score of 18. A stability score isn’t an end all be all by any means, but it's nice to know which teams have the least amount of turnover from the previous year and is something I do factor early in the season.

The betting splits differ from each site in this game, but one thing that is consistent is TCU is getting the majority of the bets and yet, the line seems to be moving down. A few shops have moved the number down to 9. The more respected money would appear to be on our side with Stanford. Stanford also appears in a few early season trends I like to look at.

Best Bet No. 2: Notre Dame/Texas A&M Under 46.5 (-110)

Both the No. 7-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the No. 20-ranked Texas A&M Aggies should have top-20 defenses this season. The Irish and Aggies will have to adjust to a new offensive coordinator as well when the teams clash at 7:30 p.m. EST in College Station, Texas.

The betting splits from all books will be in our favor. The public is hitting the over in this game hard, but this line keeps creeping down. Many books have moved to 46, triggering some reverse line movement. The respected money is in on the under. I’m going to back the good defenses and follow the money on this one. The under in this game also appears in many O/U trends.

Best Bet No. 3: Florida Gators +2.5/3

I haven’t bet on this game yet, but I will be. I’m holding out to see if the line gets back to +3 before the Gators kickoff the season against the No. 19-ranked Miami Hurricanes at 3:30 p.m. EST in Gainesville, Fla. If I don’t see a 3, I will be taking the +2.5.

This one isn’t going to be popular with the people. DraftKings is showing 81 percent of the bets on Miami with 72 percent of the money. But there are some strong trends I like to use that really support Florida here. Florida will also return 14 starters from last year, landing them with a stability score of 17. I’m going to go against the popular choice and roll with the more experienced home dog in this nonconference matchup.

Best Bet No. 4: Wyoming Cowboys +7.5 (-115)

Many books have moved the game between the Wyoming Cowboys and Arizona State Sun Devils at 10:30 p.m. EST in Tempe down to 7. If you want the 7.5, you’ll likely need to bet this one sooner rather than later. I’m going to keep this one short and sweet.

The model and power rankings I use for college football love Wyoming in this spot. When they like a side this much, I’ll trust the numbers. There are a few lower-end trends Wyoming falls into, but this is a model and power rankings play for me.

Best Bet No. 5: North Texas Mean Green +6.5 (-115)

The line for the game between the Mean Green and the South Alabama Jaguars at 5 p.m. EST on Aug. 31 in Mobile, Ala., is all over the place. At the time of this writing, the spread has ranged from 5.5 to 6.5 depending on which sportsbook you’re looking at. This is a perfect example of why shopping for the best lines and prices is important.

South Alabama is only returning seven starters, and their entire coaching staff is new. While North Texas is only returning 10 starters, they retain their entire coaching staff. Last year the Mean Green averaged 34.5 points per game, and I expect them to score well this season. The model and power rankings also really like this game for North Texas.

Remember, it’s only Week 1. We have a long season ahead of us. Trust your process and grind out the wins. Good Luck to everyone on opening weekend.

Be sure to come back to College Football Dawgs each week for more "Lock 'Em In" and every Saturday for my top NFL Daily Fantasy Football lineups.

You can follow Jeremy Orth and all his favorite bets on Twitter/X here.