Lock 'Em In: College Football Best Bets for Week 12

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Welcome to College Football Dawgs' Best Bets, where each week I will give you my best bets for college football.

We were 3-2 last week.

A few quick things before we get into the plays for this week. All bets will be to win 1 unit unless otherwise noted. Always practice bankroll management and be sure to shop around for the best lines and prices. Once the games have started, you can sometimes catch better lines and odds using apps with live betting.

There is no such thing as a lock so be on the lookout for any “Lock of the Century” bettors.

Play 'em or fade 'em. Let's go.

College YTD: 24-18 (+3.51 units)

Best Bet No. 1: Kansas Jayhawks +3 (-115)

The Kansas Jayhawks will travel to Provo, Utah this weekend to take on the No. 6 BYU Cougars at 10:15 p.m. EST on Nov. 16.

The first thing that sticks out in this matchup is that a three-win Jayhawks team are only 3-point underdogs on the road to the No. 6 team in the country. Both teams have had wild seasons. If we played this season over 100 times, the results would likely be vastly different for each team.

For Kansas, they have only lost one game by more than 6 points this season, that being an 11-point loss to the TCU Horned Frogs. In that game, Kansas trailed by 1 with 12 minutes left in the fourth quarter. Things just haven't broke the right way for the Jayhawks this season. Although, Kansas has won two of their last three games and the loss was a toe-to-toe battle resulting in a 2-point defeat to in-state rival No. 16 Kansas State Wildcats. Kansas has played better than their record and they have a shot to really shake things up over the next few games.

On the BYU side, there is growing sentiment that they can’t continue to win the way they have. The Cougars have had a negative success rate in four of their nine wins, that’s 44 percent of their games. Is success rate or even EPA per play end all be all stats? No, of course not. No single piece of data is. But this does suggest it will be very hard to continue winning this way. The sportsbooks would agree by making this a 3-point spread.

I’m going to roll the dice with the Jayhawks this weekend and look for them to possibly shake up the College Football Playoff rankings.

Best of the Rest

Best Bet No. 2: San Jose State Spartans +14.5 (-112)

Best Bet No. 3: Georgia Bulldogs -9.5 (-112)

I do have a few other games I am still looking into. i just haven't pulled the trigger on them. I suggest following me on twitter. I’ll tweet once the plays have been added to the article.

Be sure to come back to College Football Dawgs each week for more "Lock 'Em In".

You can follow Jeremy Orth and all his favorite bets, including NFL on Twitter/X here.