Sep 64 min read

Lock 'Em In: College Football Best Bets for Week 2

Michigan Wolverines — © Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Welcome to College Football Dawgs' Best Bets, where each week I will give you my best bets for college football and the NFL.

We had a successful Week 1 in college football, going 3-2 (+0.70 units).

A few quick things before we get into the plays for this week. All bets will be to win 1 unit unless otherwise noted. Always practice bankroll management, and be sure to shop around for the best lines and prices. There is no such thing as a lock so be on the lookout for any “Lock of the Century” bettors.

Play 'em or fade 'em. Let's go.

College YTD: 3-2 (+0.70 units)

Best Bet No. 1: Michigan Wolverines +7.5 (-122)

Is the market overreacting to Week 1 results when the No. 3 Texas Longhorns travel to Ann Arbor, Mich., to take on No. 10 Michigan at noon EST? One week ago the look ahead line to this game was Texas -3.5 and after a one-game sample we have climbed as high as 7.5 at most major books.

Last week Texas beat the brakes off the Colorado State Rams, winning 52-0. Texas had 545 yards of offense compared to 192 for CSU. Texas only punted one time and had one interception, while scoring eight times.

Michigan, on the other hand, struggled with Fresno State Bulldogs. Michigan ended up winning by 20 with a score on 30-10, but they only had 13 points heading into the fourth quarter.

This has led the masses to come running to the ticket booth betting on Texas. I’m showing about 74 percent of all tickets at most major books are currently on Texas. But we’re starting to see that line trickle down to 7. In fact, at press time, only two books still have 7.5 available. Everyone else has moved the line down to 7. Creating some reverse line movement. The power rankings I like to look at have this around a 4- or 5-point spread. It’ll be interesting to see how the tickets come in Saturday morning.

Texas does have a huge advantage in the stability score system created by Steve Makinen of VSiN. Which is something I do like to look at in the first few weeks of the season. But I just can’t ignore a full 4-point move after one game along with the reverse line movement we’ve seen as of Friday night. I’m hoping the market is simply overreacting to a one game sample. I’m taking the home dog on Michigan +7.5.

Best Bet No. 2: San Diego State Aztecs +6 (-108)

The San Diego State Aztecs will host the Oregon State Beavers at 10:30 p.m. EST on Saturday at Snapdragon Stadium. San Diego State struggled in the first half of last weeks game against the Texas A&M-Commerce Lions, trailing 6-3. They ended up scoring 42 points in the second half, beating Commerce by a score of 45-14.

The power ranking I like to look at have this closer to Oregon State -1 than they do 6. San Diego State also fits into a few early season trends. I’ll keep this one simple. We’ll trust the rankings and trends and take the home dog, San Diego St +6.

Best Bet No. 3: Northern Illinois Huskies +28.5 (-112)

The No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish will head home to South Bend, Ind., to take on the Northern Illinois Huskies at 3:30 p.m. EST after huge victory last week against the Texas A&M Aggies. I don’t want to call this a let down spot for the Irish, because I don’t think they’re in any real jeopardy of losing this game. But I do believe after a hard-fought battle on the road against a Southeastern Conference team, they could hit cruise control in this game. Get up by three scores and cruise to a victory hoping to leave the game injury free. This is a young offense that does need time to gel, but I see no reason to risk quarterback Riley Leonard in the second game of the season.

Despite 87 percent of the tickets at DraftKings (68 percent at another shop) laying the points with Notre Dame, we’ve seen this line come down to 27.5 at some shops from its opening line of 29.5. We have respected money coming in on the Huskies. With the Huskies getting 13 percent of the tickets at DraftKings but 36 percent of the money.

As of press time, there is only one book still showing the 28.5. Most have moved to 28 and two of them have moved down to 27.5. If 28 is all you have access to, I’m cool with that, but if 27.5 is all you have access to, that would make me hesitant.

A little icing on the cake—Northern Illinois fits into multiple trends that have shown to be profitable over numerous years.

Best Bet No. 4: Iowa State Cyclones +3 (-120)

Iowa State travels to in state rival No. 21 Iowa Hawkeyes at 3:30 pm EST. I had to go offshore to find the +3. But 3’s are still out there. I’d pass at +2.5.