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Welcome to College Football Dawgs' Best Bets, where each week I will give you my best bets for college football and the NFL.
We went 2-2 (-0.20 units) in Week 3, bringing our overall record to 8-6 (+1.20 units).
A few quick things before we get into the plays for this week. All bets will be to win 1 unit unless otherwise noted. Always practice bankroll management and be sure to shop around for the best lines and promotions on betting apps. There is no such thing as a lock so be on the lookout for any “Lock of the Century” bettors.
Play 'em or fade 'em. Let's go.
College YTD: 6-4 (+1.40 units)
Best Bet No. 1: Oklahoma Sooners +7.5 (-115)
The marquee matchup this week has the No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers taking on No. 15 Oklahoma Sooners at 7:30 p.m. EST in Norman, Okla.
This is not going to be a popular bet with the betting public. The Sooners check a lot of boxes for me, though. The college football model I look at has the Sooners with a 12.80 percent edge. The power rankings I use have this as a four-point game. Oklahoma also fits into a few strong trends I like to look at.
This game will be the largest "Pros vs. Joes" game we’ve seen so far in 2024. The betting public is rushing to the window to lay the points with Tennessee. Tennessee is receiving between 78 percent and 86 percent of the bets. Despite the large volume of bets for Tennessee, the line is starting to creep back down from its peak at 7.5. I had to go offshore to get a 7.5 as all the major books in the states have gone to 6.5 or 7 as of this writing. To get a 7.5, you may have to an offshore book. I’m cool with +7 if that’s the best available.
Add everything together, and the Sooners +7.5 are a play for me.
Best Bet No. 2: BYU Cougars +7 (-110)
No. 13 Kansas State Wildcats will travel to Provo, Utah to take on the BYU Cougars at 10:30 p.m. EST for some late-night football on ESPN.
Last week we were all over the Wildcats as they beat the Arizona Wildcats 31-7. This is a tough spot for Kansas State in my opinion. Not only do the Wildcats have to travel to the west coast, but this game will also be played at altitude and is sandwiched between what was then-No. 20 Arizona and currently No. 14 Oklahoma State Cowboys games.
Per DraftKings betting splits, the betting public is taking Kansas State, as 77 percent of the tickets have been on the Wildcats. The line peaked at 7.5 and since then has done nothing but come down. Most books are at 7, but a few have moved this line down to 6.5. The main reason for that would appear to be because the respected money is on BYU. The Cougars are only getting 23 percent of the actual tickets but 43 percent of the money. Signaling some reverse line movement with the more respected money on BYU.
I’ll follow the money and the line movement and take the points with BYU.
Best Bet No. 3: South Florida Bulls +17 (-110)
The South Florida Bulls will play host to No. 8 Miami Hurricanes at 7 p.m. EST on Sept. 21
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I do have a few other games I am still looking into. I suggest following me on twitter. I’ll tweet out once the plays have been added to the article. Twitter/X link is below.
Be sure to come back to College Football Dawgs each week for more "Lock 'Em In" and every Saturday for my top NFL Daily Fantasy Football plays.
You can follow Jeremy Orth and all his favorite bets on Twitter/X here.
Editor's Note: This article was updated at 7:58 a.m. EST on Sept. 21 with add-on bets.
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