Sep 273 min read

Lock ' Em In: College Football Best Bets for Week 5

Updated: Sep 30

Kansas State Wildcats | BYU Cougars — © Rob Gray-Imagn Images

Welcome to College Football Dawgs' Best Bets, where each week I will give you my best bets for college football and the NFL.

We had our first losing day of the year last week going 1-2. Bringing us to 9-8 (Even).

A few quick things before we get into the plays for this week. All bets will be to win 1 unit unless otherwise noted. Always practice bankroll management and be sure to shop around for the best lines and prices on new betting apps. There is no such thing as a lock so be on the lookout for any “Lock of the Century” bettors.

Play 'em or fade 'em. Let's go.

College YTD: 9-8 (Even)

Best Bet No. 1: UNLV Rebels ML -125

The Fresno State Bulldogs will take on the UNLV Rebels at 3:30 p.m. EST on Sept 28.

It’s been a wild week for UNLV. After starting 3-0, starting quarterback Matthew Sluka decided to exercise his redshirt year and quit the team paving the way for Hajj-Malik Williams. Some players don’t seem so upset Sluka is gone.

Per Adam Burkes Power Rankings, UNLV is a four-point favorite. I think UNLV rallies around their new experienced dual-threat starting quarterback and moves to 4-0.

Best Bet No. 2: Kansas State Wildcats -5 (-110)

No. 20 Oklahoma State Cowboys will travel to take on the No. 23 Kansas State Wildcats at noon EST on Sept 28.

Last week we acknowledged the tough spot Kansas State was in and faded them by taking BYU and the points. Despite us covering the spread easily and BYU winning 38-9, the Wildcats outgained the Cougars 367-241 in total yards. Kansas State rushed for 228 yards in a blowout loss.

Oklahoma State was outgained 456 to 285 yards and they allowed No. 10 Utah to run for 249 yards.

Per Steve Makinen of VSiN, the Wildcats are on a 10-1 ATS run in the Big 12 Conference when coming off a blowout loss of 20 points or more. As of this writing, per DraftKings betting splits, Kansas State is only receiving 42 percent of the bets but a whopping 70 percent of the money.

I’ll take the Wildcats -5 to bounce back at home and run the ball efficiently on the Cowboys.

Best Bet No. 3: Baylor Bears -3 (-105)

The No. 22 BYU Cougars will head to Waco, Texas to take on the Baylor Bears at noon EST on Sept 28.

BYU is coming off their best win of the season, beating the Kansas State Wildcats 38-9. As we mentioned in the previous bet, the Wildcats outgained BYU 367 – 241. A lot of things went right for BYU to get outgained by so much but win in such a blowout fashion. They returned a fumble for a touchdown and they returned a punt for a touchdown.

Baylor on the other hand, suffered a brutal loss to the Colorado Buffaloes. Baylor missed a field goal to go up 10 with just a little over 2 minutes left. Then Colorado connected on a Hail Mary at the end of regulation to tie things up. After a Colorado touchdown to lead off overtime, Baylor fumbled while going into the end zone, the ball rolled out of the end zone and the game was over.

People are rushing to the window to bet the No. 22-ranked team coming off their biggest win of the season against a 2-2 team coming off a horrible road loss. Per DraftKings, BYU is getting 77 percent of the bets, but only 52 percent of the money is on the Cougars. Baylor opened as a 1-point favorite and despite the Cougars getting a large portion of the bets, this line had moved all the way up to 3.5 before it has settled for the moment at 3.

I’ll go against BYU in a let down spot and back Baylor -3.