Lock 'Em In: College Football Best Bets for Week 6

© Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Welcome to College Football Dawgs' Best Bets, where each week I will give you my best bets for college football and the NFL.

Last week we went 3-1 (+2 units) bringing us to 12-9 (+1.95 units) on the year. A solid September. Let’s stack that with a winning October, shall we.

A few quick things before we get into the plays for this week. All bets will be to win 1 unit unless otherwise noted. Always practice bankroll management and be sure to shop around for the best lines and prices. There is no such thing as a lock so be on the lookout for any “Lock of the Century” bettors.

Play 'em or fade 'em. Let's go.

College YTD: 12-9 (+1.95 units)

Best Bet No. 1: Minnesota Golden Gophers +9 (-112)

The Minnesota Golden Gophers will play host to the No. 11 USC Trojans at 7:30 p.m. EST on Oct 5.

This is a tough spot for the Trojans. This will be the second time in three weeks the Trojans have had to travel halfway across the country for a Big Ten Conference matchup. The Trojans will also host No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions next week creating a possible look ahead spot.

Defensively, The Golden Gophers rank ninth in yards allowed per game and eighth in yards allowed per play. Teams only average 62.5 plays per game against the Gophers, which ranks as the 24th lowest number of plays allowed per game in the nation.

© Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

We have reverse line movement in this game. Despite USC getting between 73 and 77 percent of the tickets, we’ve seen this line drop from it’s opening of 9.5. While there are still a few 9’s out there, many shops have moved to 8.5 and some even down to 8. The cause for the line movement moving in the opposite direction of the public would appear to be because sharp or respected money is on the Golden Gophers. As of this writing, Minnesota is pulling in between 41 and 61 percent of the money depending on which book you look at. We have numerous mid- to lower-range trends favoring the Golden Gophers as well.

Give me Minnesota at +9 to keep this game respectable Saturday evening.

Best Bet No. 2: California Golden Bears +10.5 (-110)

The No. 8 Miami Hurricanes will travel across the country to take on the California Golden Bears for some Saturday late night action at 10:30 p.m. on Oct 5.

The Golden Bears are coming off a bye week while Miami had a thriller against the Virginia Tech Hokies last Friday. The Golden Bears defense has been great to start the year. They are eighth in points allowed per play and 14th in yards allowed per play.

Cal is ranked fifth this week in Steve Makinen’s top underpriced underdogs according to his effective strength ratings.

As of this writing, per DraftKings betting splits, only 19 percent of the tickets are on California, but 49 percent of the money. That discrepancy stays true at other books as well. Last week, the look ahead line for this game was Miami -14 and the line has done nothing but come down since then, despite an overwhelming number of tickets coming in to support the Hurricanes.

This is a late-night game for the Hurricanes, across the country. I’ll back the home dogs in Cal on this one at +10.5.

I do have a few other games I am still looking into. I suggest following me on twitter. I’ll tweet out once the plays have been added to the article.

Be sure to come back to College Football Dawgs each week for more "Lock 'Em In" and every Saturday for my top NFL Daily Fantasy Football plays. 

You can follow Jeremy Orth and all his favorite bets on Twitter/X here.