Oct 253 min read

Lock 'Em In: College Football Best Bets for Week 9

Updated: Oct 27

BYU Cougars | Darius Lassiter — © Rob Gray-Imagn Images

Welcome to College Football Dawgs' Best Bets, where each week I will give you my best bets for college football and the NFL.

Unfortunately, we broke our winning streak last week. We were 1-2 (-1.25 units). We’re hoping to get back on track this weekend. I only have one official play as of Friday morning. But be sure to check back Saturday morning, I have a handful of games I’m still looking at and a few I already plan on betting, I’m just hoping to get a better line than what is currently being offered.

A few quick things before we get into the plays for this week. All bets will be to win 1 unit unless otherwise noted. Always practice bankroll management and be sure to shop around for the best lines and prices (betting apps for Android or iPhone). There is no such thing as a lock so be on the lookout for any “Lock of the Century” bettors.

Play 'em or fade 'em. Let's go.

College YTD: 19-12 (+5.60 units)

Best Bet No. 1: UCF Knights ML -126

No. 11 BYU Cougars will head west to take on the UCF Knights at 3:30 p.m. EST on Oct 26.

I can’t say I’ve been waiting for this game all season, but I can say I’ve been waiting for another shot at fading BYU for a while now. In my opinion, BYU simply can’t continue to win games the way they have. BYU has consistently had some of the worst net success rate wins the College Football.

Last week, per Parker Flemings “Did we really get beat that bad?” series on X, BYU once again had the worst net success rate of any team to win a game. That marks the second time they have finished last in that category this season, it’s the third time they have finished in the bottom four and the fourth time they have finished in the bottom 20. They have finished in the bottom 20 in EPA per play numerous times as well. They have played seven games this season and in over half of them they have had a negative net success rate.

The No. 11 ranked team who is 7-0 on the season is an underdog to a team that has lost four consecutive games and is coming off a devastating loss.

BYU opened as a short favorite and despite getting 87 percent of the bets per DraftKings betting splits and this line has completely flipped to UCF being favored by 2. Some shops have even moved to 2.5.

I can’t promise UCF will rebound after last week’s brutal loss, but I do know I’ve been waiting to fade BYU, and the books are telling us something with this line. I’m going to listen. Unfortunately, I missed the better line as this game has moved quickly, I’ll take UCF on the moneyline at -126.