Lock 'Em In: NFL Best Bets for Week 5

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Welcome to College Football Dawgs' Best Bets, where each week I will give you our best bets for college football and the NFL.

We were 2-0 (+2.10) units last week. Our overall record now sits at 6-2 (+3.82) units. It was a great September, let’s try and stack that with a winning October.

I am looking to add some more bets later in the week, so be sure to check back for that.

A few quick things before we get into the plays for this week. All bets will be to win 1 unit unless otherwise noted. Always practice bankroll management and be sure to shop around for the best lines and prices (betting apps for iPhone or Android). There is no such thing as a lock so be on the lookout for any “Lock of the Century” bettors.

Play 'em or fade 'em. Let's go

NFL Best Bets: 6-2 (+3.82 units)

Best Bet No. 1: Cleveland Browns +3.5 (-118)

The Cleveland Browns will head to the nation's capital to take on the Washington Commanders at 1 p.m. EST on Oct 6.

The Commanders have been red hot to start the season while the same can not be said for the Browns. There are a lot of reasons for the Browns slow start. One of those reasons is injuries. The Browns have been decimated by injuries up front. But some of that luck could be turning around this week. Both tackles, Jedrick Willis Jr. and Jack Conklin returned to practice, along with starting tight end David Njoku. Getting any of those players back would be a big help, getting all three players back could be huge.

The Browns allow a 48.4 precent pressure rate this season, worst in the league. Some of that can be attributed to quarterback Deshaun Watson but getting both your starting tackles back would certainly be a plus. The Commanders defense is currently pressuring the quarterback at 25.8 percent, good for 30th in the league.

Njoku is one of the top tight ends in the league. He is coming off a season where he had 882 yards receiving with 6 touchdowns.

My model gives the Browns an edge at 7.30 percent, while the T-Shoe Index created by Tyler Shoemaker has the Browns with a 14.10 percent edge. Cleveland is third in Steve Makinen’s underpriced underdog bettor ratings.

The line has bounced back and forth from 3 to 3.5, while only two major books are still hanging the 3.5. As of this writing, DraftKings is currently reporting the Browns are receiving 27 percent of the bets and 45 percent of the money.

I’ll grab the 3.5 with the Browns and fade the popular Washington Commanders.

That’s all for now. Don’t forget to come back later this weekend for the added plays. Good Luck to everyone this weekend.

Be sure to come back to College Football Dawgs each week for more "Lock 'Em In" and every Saturday for my top NFL Daily Fantasy Football plays.

You can follow Jeremy Orth and all his favorite bets on Twitter/X here.