Lock ‘Em In: NFL Best Bets for Week 6

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Welcome to College Football Dawgs' Best Bets, where each week I will give you our best bets for college football and the NFL.

We only had one play last week. Unfortunately, that one didn’t get home for us.

I am looking to add some more bets later in the week, so be sure to check back for that. Follow me on Twitter/X. I will share the article again once the other plays have been added. You can find my Twitter/X handle at the bottom of the page.

A few quick things before we get into the plays for this week. All bets will be to win 1 unit unless otherwise noted. Always practice bankroll management and be sure to shop around for the best lines and prices (betting apps for iPhone or Android) . There is no such thing as a lock so be on the lookout for any “Lock of the Century” bettors.

Play 'em or fade 'em. Let's go.

NFL Best Bets: 6-3 (+2.64 units)

Best Bet No. 1: Baltimore Ravens -6.5 (-115)

The Washington Commanders will make a short trip to Baltimore to take on the Baltimore Ravens at 1 p.m. EST on Oct 13.

Washington and Baltimore have the top two offenses in the NFL. Washington leads the league with an EPA/Play of 0.266 while Baltimore is second in the league with an EPA/Play of 0.169. Both teams are in the top five in both run and pass EPA.

The Ravens' defense ranks third vs. the run so far this season with a rush EPA of -0.201 and an allowed success rate of 26.6 percent which tops the league. Baltimore will look to make the Commanders one-dimensional.

The T-Shoe Index betting model created by Tyler Shoemaker has the Ravens with a 4.6 percent edge.

The Commanders have been a public favorite this year as they have reeled off four straight wins.

Two of those wins have come as an underdog. Per DraftKings betting splits, Washington is receiving 72 percent of the bets. Despite the large amount of public support, DraftKings has moved this line from Baltimore -6.5 to -7 giving the public that extra half-point to a key number of 7. If the public was already betting Washington at such a high clip at +6.5, why would they make it easier for the public and give them 7 points? There are still plenty of 6.5’s out there, but they are juiced to the Ravens' side, allowing the Washington bettors to get reduced juice on the 6.5. We have strong indications of sharp money coming in on the Ravens.

I’ll back the Ravens here at -6.5 as they will be Washington's toughest test to date.

Best Bet No. 2: Detroit Lions ML parlayed with Cincinnati ML (+146) – Risk 1 unit to win 1.46 units

I had planned on betting on both these teams individually against the spread. But unfortunately, I either missed the line I was looking for or the line became too juiced for my liking.

I checked in with the reliable HeyYoSports model, created by Jayme Orth, and he had advantages for both teams at the better line.

© Junfu Han/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Since I missed the numbers I was looking for, I won’t get into too much of the analysis I had planned to when pertaining to the spread.

I’ll parlay both teams on the money line as an alternative bet.

That’s all for now. Don’t forget to come back later this weekend for the added plays. I’m looking at a few other best bets. Good luck to everyone this weekend.

Be sure to come back to College Football Dawgs each week for more "Lock 'Em In" and every Saturday for my top NFL Daily Fantasy Football plays.

You can follow Jeremy Orth and all his favorite bets on Twitter/X here.