Oct 183 min read

Lock 'Em In: NFL Best Bets for Week 7

Updated: Oct 27

Kansas City Chiefs | Patrick Mahomes — © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Welcome to College Football Dawgs' Best Bets, where each week I will give you our best bets for college football and the NFL.

We swept the board last week, going 2-0 (+2.46 units)..

I am looking to add some more bets later in the week, so be sure to check back for that. Follow me on Twitter/S. I will share the article again once the other plays have been added.

A few quick things before we get into the plays for this week. All bets will be to win 1 unit unless otherwise noted. Always practice bankroll management and be sure to shop around for the best lines and prices (betting apps for Android or iPhone). There is no such thing as a lock so be on the lookout for any “Lock of the Century” bettors.

Play 'em or fade 'em. Let's go

NFL Best Bets: 8-3 (+5.10 units)

Best Bet No. 1: San Francisco 49ers ML -116

In a revenge game, the San Francisco 49ers will play host to the Kansas City Chiefs at 4:25 p.m. EST on Oct 20.

The 49ers are ranked seventh in EPA (Expected Points Added) per play and fifth in EPA per drop back. While the Chiefs defense has been fantastic vs. the run this year, they are closer to the middle of pack when it comes to allowed EPA per drop back, ranking 15th.

The Chiefs offense ranks 14th in EPA per drop back while the 49ers defense ranks 10th in allowed EPA per drop back. The Chiefs have also been decimated by injuries to core players this season while JuJu Smith-Schuster popped up on the injury report Thursday with a hamstring injury. Something worth monitoring, Kansas City took care of business against the Saints the last time we saw them, but their other 4 games came down to the final few minutes.

Despite a large amount of public support for the Chiefs, we have seen this line completely flip from where it opened at -1 in favor of Kansas City. San Francisco is now 1.5- or 2-point favorites depending on what book you’re shopping at.

Give me San Francisco at home on the money line.

Best Bet No. 2: New York Giants +3.5 (-115)

The Philadelphia Eagles will travel to New York to take on the New York Giants at 1 p.m. EST on Oct 20.

The Giants defense leads the league with 26 sacks. They allow the lowest aDOT (average depth of target) in the NFL. They have a pressure rate of 36.2 percent, good for seventh in the league. They rank 10th in defensive EPA per rush. They haven’t allowed more than 21 points since opening week against the Minnesota Vikings who scored 28.

The Eagles offensive line allows a 37.9 percent pressure rate, ranking eighth-worst in the league. When pressured, Jalen Hurts is 27th in the league in yard per attempt at 5.17. His pressured passer rating of 54.9 is good for 24th in the league. Hurts is 18th in the league in adjusted EPA per play. We must note, AJ Brown has missed a few games, likely hurting Hurts in some of the passing statistics. But Brown played last week after coming off a bye week and the Eagles managed to win by four points, 20-16, against the Cleveland Browns.

DraftKings is currently reporting that the Eagles are getting 76 percent of the bets, but we have seen this line which opened up Eagles -4 drop to as low as -3. There are still a handful of shops hanging the 3.5, but it’s a juiced 3.5.

Superstar in the making Malik Nabers is expected to return from his concussion this week. Giving the Giants a boost on offense. The T-Shoe Index model has the Giants with a 6.10 percent edge.

I’ll roll with the divisional home dog with a defense that likes to get at it. Giants +3.5.