Lock 'Em In: NFL Best Bets, Player Props for Week 1

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We made it. Week 1 of the NFL season is here. It’s been far too long. 

Welcome to College Football Dawgs' Best Bets, where each week I will give you our best bets for college football and the NFL. Our college football Week 1 plays were a success going 3-2 (+0.70 units). 

As excited as we all are for the start of the NFL season, we need to remember it is only Week 1. I’m currently at level 20 on a scale to 10 for excitement. But the truth is that we have a lot to learn over the next few weeks. As we gain more data, our models and projections become more accurate.  

I will be adding a player prop parlay later in the week, so be sure to check back for that. 

A few quick things before we get into the plays for this week. All bets will be to win 1 unit unless otherwise noted. Always practice bankroll management and be sure to shop around for the best lines and prices on football betting apps. There is no such thing as a lock so be on the lookout for any “Lock of the Century” bettors. 

Play 'em or fade 'em. Let's go

Best Bet No. 1: Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 (-110)

Quarterback Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars will kick off their season on the road against the Miami Dolphins this at 1 p.m. EST on Sept. 8. 

The 2023 season didn’t go the way Jacksonville and their fans had planned. After starting the season 8-3, the wheels fell off. Losing five of their final six games the Jaguars ended up going 9-8 and missing out on the playoffs. 

There has been a lot of chatter in the offseason about Lawrence and living up to his lofty expectations. Rightfully so, he hasn’t lived up to at this point. But not everything is as it always appears. Lawrence was clearly playing the back half of the season banged up. He also got absolutely no help from his teammates. Per Ben Baldwin via X, Lawrence had a 0.26 Adjusted EPA per play last season, ranking third overall, compared to his raw EPA of 0.07. 

Adjusted EPA accounts for things out of the quarterbacks control, such as pass protection, dropped passes, etc. Many of the players that were bringing that raw EPA down are no longer with the team. If the Jags can manage just a little bit of injury luck, we should expect them to bounce back this season. My model also likes Jacksonville this weekend. Give me the points with Jags this weekend. 

Player Prop No. 1: Geno Smith Over 238.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Mike Macdonald makes his head coaching debut this Sunday, when is Seattle Seahawks take on the Denver Broncos at 4 p.m. EST. Macdonald hired Ryan Grubb—formerly of the Washington Huskies—as his offensive coordinator and the expectation in Seattle is for an improved offense. 

Last season, Smith averaged 33.3 pass attempts and 241.6 yards per game. If our expectations of Grubb are correct, Smith should go over the 238.5 yards the line is set at. Add in the fact that the Broncos are expected to be toward the bottom of the league in pass defense. 

Player Prop No. 2: Kirk Cousins Over 240.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Returning from tearing his Achilles tendon, Cousins makes his debut with the Atlanta Falcons at they will take on the Pittsburgh Steelers at 1 p.m. EST on Sept. 8. The Achilles injury to Cousins doesn’t concern me as much as it would with some other players. I’m not expecting Cousins to run the ball. As long as he can maneuver in the pocket and plant his back foot as he could before, I think we see the same Cousins we are used to seeing. We’ve received no indication that there has been concern with Cousins recovery or strength in the pocket. 

Zac Robinson will be the new play caller for Cousins. Robinson comes from the same Sean McVay coaching tree that Kevin O’Connell did. O’Connell was Cousins' head coach and play caller the last two years for the Minnesota Vikings. Cousins will be familiar with the offensive scheme where he averaged 267.5 and 291.4 pass yards per game. 

The matchup may not be the greatest, but if Cousins can maneuver the pocket and plant, this number is too low. Atlanta might not have a Justin Jefferson, but they do have weapons at all the skilled positions. 

Player Prop No. 3: Aaron Rodgers Over 234.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets make their season on Monday Night Football (Sept. 9) against the San Fransisco 49ers. Rodgers, like Cousins, is returning from an Achilles tendon tear. What I said about Cousins Achilles tear and recovery goes for Rodgers too. 

© Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Rodgers has played the 49ers nine times in the regular season, and he has surpassed the 234.5 O/U set for this game seven times. Yes, those were with the Green Bay Packers, but he’s still in an offense he knows well. Rodgers checks in with my models with the third biggest edge. 

That’s all for now. I will be adding a player prop parlay later this weekend. Good Luck to everyone this weekend. 

Be sure to come back to College Football Dawgs each week for more "Lock 'Em In" and every Saturday for my top NFL Daily Fantasy Football plays. 

You can follow Jeremy Orth and all his favorite bets on Twitter/X here.