Lock 'Em In: NFL Best Bets, Player Props for Week 2

© Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

Welcome to College Football Dawgs' Best Bets, where each week I will give you our best bets for college football and the NFL. 

Week 1 was well—Week 1. We went 1-0 (+1 unit) on NFL best bets. I’m also happy with the way the model faired on games I didn’t play. We still have a lot to learn about these teams over the next few weeks, and certainly don’t want to overreact to a one-week sample, but I’m pleased with how the model faired the first week of the season. 

Player props on the other hand, not so good. It was a bad week for overs, as we went 0-4 (-3.94 units) including the player prop parlay. Just like the best bets model, I’m not going to overreact to a one-week sample, as I have faith in the numbers. I’ll likely be a tad stricter over the next few weeks, at least until we see these offenses come together. As we gain more data, our models and projections become more accurate.  

I will be adding the player props and possibly some more side bets later in the week, so be sure to check back for that.

A few quick things before we get into the plays for this week. All bets will be to win 1 unit unless otherwise noted. Always practice bankroll management and be sure to shop around for the best lines and prices on football betting apps. There is no such thing as a lock so be on the lookout for any “Lock of the Century” bettors. 

Play 'em or fade 'em. Let's go.

NFL Best Bets: 1-0 (+1 unit)

NFL Player Props: 0-4 (-3.94 units)—Includes player prop parlays. 

Best Bet No. 1: Buffalo Bills +3 (-125), Bought a Half Point

Week 2 of the NFL will kick off when the Buffalo Bills travel to Miami to take on the Miami Dolphins at 8:15 p.m. EST for Thursday Night Football. 

© Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Both division rivals had come-from-behind victories last week. Buffalo overcame a 17–0 deficit to beat the Arizona Cardinals. While the Dolphins kicked a game-winning field goal as time expired after trailing 17–7 at halftime to the Jacksonville Jaguars. 

Buffalo is one of my models’ top plays this week, checking in with a 4.19 percent edge. While still early and treading carefully with the data, there are multiple trends backing the model with Buffalo. According to AJ Makinen, in Week 2 games, when both teams are 0-1 against the spread (ATS), the underdogs are 26-11-2 since 2014. This grades out as one of the top trends of the week. Buffalo is 12-5 over its last 17 prime-time games.

Give me the points with quarterback Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.  

Best Bet No. 2: Los Angeles Rams +1.5 (-110)

The Rams coming off an overtime loss on Sunday Night Football to the Detroit Lions and will take on the Arizona Cardinals at 4:05 p.m. EST on Sept. 15. 

My model gives the Rams a 5.31 percent edge. That also correlates with the power rankings I like to look at. The Rams are the power-rankings top dog of the week. Since 2019, the Rams are 21-12 ATS when coming off a loss. 

Quarterback Matthew Stafford and the offense really got things rolling in the second half of last week’s game, scoring 17 second half points. The Cardinals allowed 34 points in three quarters to the Bills. This Cardinals defense appears to be the same defense it was a year ago. 

Best Bet No. 3: New Orleans Saints +6.5 (-118)

After erupting for 47 points, the Saints will head to the "Big D" to take on the Dallas Cowboys at 1 p.m. EST on Sept. 15 The Cowboys themselves hung a 33 spot on the Cleveland Browns in Week 1. 

The Klint Kubiak experience got off to a fantastic start in New Orleans. Kubiak, the new offensive coordinator for the Saints, started fast and they never looked back. The Saints put up 17 first-quarter points in route to a 47-10 victory over the Carolina Panthers. Quarterback Derek Carr was 18-of-23 for 200 yards passing and 3 touchdowns. 

I’m showing a 5.15 percent edge for the Saints in this matchup. Early betting splits show a lot of people coming to the window to bet Dallas, but the line has moved down to 6 at many shops. 

That’s all for now. Don’t forget to come back later this weekend for the added plays. I’m looking at a few other best bets along with the player props. The College Football Best Bets will be out Friday. Good Luck to everyone this weekend. 

Be sure to come back to College Football Dawgs each week for more "Lock 'Em In" and every Saturday for my top NFL Daily Fantasy Football plays. 

You can follow Jeremy Orth and all his favorite bets on Twitter/X here.