Sep 193 min read

Lock 'Em In: NFL Best Bets, Player Props for Week 3

Updated: Sep 25

Green Bay Packers | Matt LaFluer — © Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

Welcome to College Football Dawgs' Best Bets, where each week I will give you our best bets for college football and the NFL.

Week 2 was another success. We went 2-1 (+0.90 units), bringing us to 3-1 (+1.90 units) on the year. Our DraftKings DFS picks were on point for week 2 as well. Enough about last week, we’re on to Week 3.

I will be adding the player props and possibly some more side bets later in the week, so be sure to check back for that.

A few quick things before we get into the plays for this week. All bets will be to win 1 unit unless otherwise noted. Always practice bankroll management and be sure to shop around for the best lines and promotions on betting apps. There is no such thing as a lock so be on the lookout for any “Lock of the Century” bettors.

Play 'em or fade 'em. Let's go

NFL Best Bets: 3-1 (+1.9 units)

Best Bet No. 1: Green Bay Packers +2.5 (-115)

The Green Bay Packers will take on the Tennessee Titans at 1 p.m. EST on Sept. 22 at Nissan Stadium. Matt LaFluer, having not won a Coach of the Year award in the NFL is criminal, in my opinion. All this guy has done is win. He is a top 5 play caller, and what we saw last week was a thing of beauty.

The Packers come in with a 5.35 percent edge on my model. Now, we must account for the possibility that quarterback Jordan Love doesn’t play this week, despite getting in a limited practice to start the week. I went to one of my trusted sources, the T-Shoe Index, knowing he will account for Love being ruled out and adjust from there should he be ruled in. The T-Shoe has Green Bay with a 7.4 percent edge, one of his higher rated plays on the week. So, we’re on the same page.

If Love does play, we will have great closing line value with the Packers at +2.5. This line is already starting to move as some shops are down to 1.5. The Packers will likely close as the favorites should Love start.

I am making this play with the assumption that Malik Willis will be the starting quarterback. I believe the Packers have the better roster even with Willis starting. I believe they have a better coaching staff as well. The Packers have forced 6 turnovers this season and Tennessee quarterback Will Levis is no stranger to turnovers. I’ll take the better team and the points.

Best Bet No. 2: New Orleans Saints -2.5 (-118)

The New Orleans Saints will head home to take on the Philadelphia Eagles at 1 p.m. EST on Sept. 22. We took the Saints last week and we are going right back to them this week. We talked about how offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak got off to a fast start with his fantastic play calling. That continued in Week 2. Kubiak is being credited as the second-best player caller of the week, after finishing first in Week 1. The Saints put up 44 points last week which is the second time in as many games they have surpassed 40 points. I don’t expect them to put up 40 every week, but this is not the same Saints team we’ve become accustomed to the last few years.

The line on this is moving fast. Some shops are at 3 already. The Saints opened as the underdog and 24 hours after opening, they were the betting favorite. A lot of early money is on New Orleans. We’ll see if that continues as the betting public starts to make their bets through the weekend. I wanted to grab this before we hit 3 across the board. Although, when or if it does hit 3 across the board, it’s very possible we will see a buy back on the Eagles.

New Orleans Saints | Derek Carr — © Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

I’ll take the hot team and the coaching staff that is on absolute fire right now. I have the Saints as 4.5 favorites and so far, the line movement has followed the early money.