Sep 272 min read

Lock 'Em In: NFL Best Bets, Player Props for Week 4

Updated: Sep 30

Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Chris Godwin — © Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Welcome to College Football Dawgs' Best Bets, where each week I will give you our best bets for college football and the NFL.

We went 1-1 in Week 3, bringing our overall record to 4-2 (+1.72 units). We have one play to start the week.

I will likely be adding some player props and possibly some more side bets later in the week, so be sure to check back for that.

A few quick things before we get into the plays for this week. All bets will be to win 1 unit unless otherwise noted. Always practice bankroll management and be sure to shop around for the best lines and prices on new betting apps. There is no such thing as a lock so be on the lookout for any “Lock of the Century” bettors.

Play 'em or fade 'em. Let's go

NFL Best Bets: 4-2 (+1.72 units)

Best Bet No. 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML +110 (Risk 1 unit to win 1.10 units)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will play host to the Philadelphia Eagles at 1 p.m. EST on Sept 29.

Recency bias appears to be in full force for this game. Last week the Eagles went on the road and defeated the red-hot New Orleans Saints while the Buccaneers lost a home game to the Denver Broncos, resulting in one of the larger upsets of the season so far. As of this writing, more than 60 percent of the bets across the board are on the Eagles. Despite the lopsided number of bets coming in on the Eagles, we’ve seen this line drop to 1.5 at most shops from its peak of 2.5. According to a few books, the Buccaneers are receiving more than 65 percent of the money, signaling some sharp early movement on Tampa Bay.

The Eagles could be missing both starting wide receivers, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, along with offensive tackle Lane Johnson. We will have to monitor those injuries. Per Rich Hribar of Sharp Football, Jalen Hurts is 1-3 when facing a Todd Bowles-defense with 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.

My model shows a 5.9 percent edge on the money line for the Buccaneers. Checking in with a trusted source the T-Shoe Index model created by Tyler Shoemaker, he too shows an edge for Tampa Bay on the money line. If you wanted to take the 1.5 or 2 points, I wouldn’t argue that. But I’ll roll with the Buccaneers on the money line.