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The SMU Mustangs enter their first season in the Atlantic Coast Conference with low expectations from national experts and outside media sources.
Most media outlets picked the Mustangs to finish no better than fifth in the ACC. But with plenty of firepower returning from an 11-win conference championship team and several crucial additions through the transfer portal, is SMU being overlooked?
Building on Momentum
Some would argue momentum carrying over from year to year is a myth, but SMU has a unique opportunity to build off its most successful season in decades. The move to the ACC has only strengthened the team's goals and mission as more and more donors have become involved and more funds for the athletic programs available.
Having most of the leadership of last year's conference championship team remain intact also helps. Those leaders have preached a "championship mentality" throughout the offseason, and the team's belief that it can compete in Year 1 can go a long way toward proving doubters wrong.
The team has bought into head coach Rhett Lashlee's program and philosophies, and he seems to have the right staff in place.
Opponents will also have plenty to deal with when visiting Dallas as the Mustangs bring a seven-game home winning streak into the 2024 season.
ACC Familiarity
SMU may be new to the ACC, but the change in conferences is a homecoming of sorts for several Mustangs' coaches and players.
Lashlee spent two seasons as the offensive coordinator for the Miami Hurricanes in 2020 and 2021 before becoming the leader of the Mustangs. Five other SMU assistants were part of those teams, including quarterbacks coach D'Eriq King, who was the Hurricanes' starting quarterback.
Additionally, the Mustangs have 11 players who transferred from current ACC member schools, including fellow newcomers Cal and Stanford.
Yes, many of those are from Miami. And yes, many of the other ACC schools have undergone changes since Lashlee and company's last experiences with the conference. But those experiences have to count for something in this situation.
SMU has also been pitted against ACC teams in two of its last three bowl games, although the 2021 Fenway Bowl against Virginia was ultimately canceled.
Still, the familiarity with opposing programs can be a huge help when teams are just getting started at the Power Four level, and SMU's recent exposure could assist the Mustangs in finding their footing quickly.
Returning SMU Mustangs
Perhaps the most significant factor SMU has in its favor is the amount of returning production it has from last year's American Athletic Conference championship team.
Starting quarterback Preston Stone returns after a season in which he threw for nearly 3,200 yards and 28 touchdown passes in his first year as the team's full-time starter. Stone's passing yardage was the fourth-most in the AAC and would have been third in the ACC behind Louisville's Jack Plummer and North Carolina's Drake Maye. His year was also cut short by a gruesome leg injury.
The offense also returns its top six receivers and top three running backs in addition to three players who saw plenty of snaps along the offensive line. All that is huge for an offense that scored 38.7 points per game a year ago, even while leaving some missed opportunities out there.
The defense is where SMU improved the most last season. This year, the Mustangs return five starters from their championship team and have most of their players from their 2-deep returning in the secondary.
New Blood
One of the doubts people have about SMU this season seems to stem from a perception that the Mustangs might be unable to adapt quickly to competition at a higher level. Despite the recent conference championship season, many seem to believe the Mustangs are inferior to other ACC programs in talent.
However, SMU has addressed the issue thoroughly, bringing in a huge transfer class while welcoming only 10 freshmen. A major advantage achieved by that strategy is that many of the new players come from Power Four backgrounds.
Including the Miami players, 40 players on the Mustangs' current roster started their college careers with other Power Four programs (then considered Power Five). Many of those players will be asked to fill vacancies on the offensive and defensive lines and at cornerback.
Schedule Outlook
SMU's nonconference schedule features Power Four matchups against BYU and TCU, both teams with offenses that should prepare it for similar looks in the ACC and philosophies that should bring similar competition levels to the field.
However, the Mustangs begin ACC play with a daunting schedule. Their ACC opener is a home game in Dallas against defending ACC champion Florida State, then they hit the road for three in a row, including a matchup with 2023 ACC runner-up Louisville, a West Coast trip to Stanford and a new-look Duke team that features former SMU assistant Jonathan Brewer as the Blue Devils offensive coordinator.
The schedule lightens up at the end with three of the final four games at home. However, SMU will have to play a rematch of last season's Fenway Bowl loss against Boston College and take on another ACC newcomer in Cal to close the year.
According to most media outlets' predictions, six of SMU's eight conference opponents are expected to finish behind the Mustangs in the final standings. That means SMU should be in the hunt most of the season, especially if it can score an early upset against Florida State or Louisville.
SMU just might outperform projections and make some noise in its first year in the ACC.
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