Michigan State's Jonathan Smith Laying Foundation in Year 1

Michigan State used to head into the season as one of the favorites to win the Big Ten Conference. Now, the Spartans have an over/under win total of just 4.5 games, according to FanDuel.

Former head coach Mark Dantonio had the Spartans as one of the top programs in the country, but his refusal to make tough decisions about the coaching staff and inability to change started Michigan State on the path to where they find themselves today.

Dantonio once said that “pride comes before the fall.” Little did he know how fitting the saying would be for Michigan State football. After Dantonio stepped down late in the offseason, Michigan State was forced to act fast and hired Mel Tucker.

Tucker came in and immediately started rebuilding the team with the help of the Transfer Portal. Thanks to former running back Kenneth Walker III—who should have won the Heisman Trophy in hindsight Tucker’s time at Michigan State—Tucker started with a bang and the program looked to be in good hands. The chants of "Tuck Coming" started coming and fans were ready to embrace a winning culture again. Fast forward a year and a half later and "Tuck" took on a whole new meaning and he was out.

And now with the start of a season upon us, Michigan State again has a new face to lead the program into battle. Jonathan Smith the former head coach of Oregon State now takes over and is tasked to rebuild the program into what it should be. Michigan State is top 25 in revenue and attendance and Smith should have all the resources he needs to succeed.

Smith heads into the 2024 season with a team that most fans don’t know much about. Can he start to lay the foundation and show Spartans fans they are heading back on the right path to success again? Programs like Michigan State usually head into the regular season expecting to compete for a championship. That can no longer be the expectation in East Lansing, Mich., but what should fans expect for the 2024 season?

Architect of a Program

Oregon State hired Smith in 2017. The year he got there the Beavers were 1-11 overall and 0-9 in Pac-12 Conference play. In 2023 Smith led the Beavers to an 8-4 overall record finishing fourth in the Pac-12.

At Oregon State Smith built one of the best defenses in the county in 2023. On the ground the Beavers only gave up 104.1 yards per game, had 12 interceptions and averaged 3 sacks per game. On offense, the Beavers ranked 36th in total offense. They averaged 33.8 points per game ranking them fourth in the Pac-12.

Smith turned around a program in Oregon State that was at an all-time low to being one of the top teams in the conference. Smith will have to do it again at Michigan State but will have more resources than Oregon State.

Michigan State was able to pull Smith away from his alma mater mainly because the Pac-12 dissolved, and Oregon State was left without a conference. Fans need to give him the time to do what he needs to do so he can build Michigan State back into the program it should be.

B1G Schedule

The B1G hands the Spartans a schedule that at times looks like they can put together a few wins, and at others, there is no hope of finding a win. Michigan State's schedule can be broken down into three four-week segments. The first segment is must-win games, the second is the gantlet and the third segment is winnable depending on how beat up the Spartans after the gantlet.

The first four games MSU plays—FAU, Maryland, Prairie View A&M and Boston College—are the must-win games. Even with the turnover that has occurred in the offsesason, MSU should be more talented than all four opponents.

The Maryland game is the hardest of the four games but who knows if Maryland will have found their QB by Week 2. Michigan State will be starting a new QB Aidan Chiles but the Spartans will have the advantage because he was with Smith last season at Oregon State. Chiles was one of the top young QBs in the portal.

“There's some advantages, familiarity within the scheme they're going to be running, the terminology and how we call plays and how we do it,” Smith said at Big Ten Media Days.

If Chiles is as advertised, MSU will win all four of these games.

The gantlet part of the season would test even the best teams in the county. MSU will face No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Oregon, No. 25 Iowa and finally, the backyard brawl against No. 9 Michigan. This is a brutal four-game stretch with MSU playing three teams that could be heading to the College Football Playoff. This stretch is not very winnable, but fans should expect to see a team that at least competes to stay within 17 points. Fans will also learn if Chiles is the "X-Factor" they are hoping for.

Coming out of the gantlet MSU should be beat up, but if they show they can compete with the conference best, momentum should carry them through the final four games. In the final four games, MSU will play Indiana, Illinois, Purdue and Rutgers. The Purdue and Rutgers games will be the first back-to-back home games of the season. MSU should be able to win at least two of these games helping to end the regular season on a high note.

Realistic Expectations

Smith is taking over a team that was 4-8 overall last season and 2-7 in conference play. Michigan State fans should expect a dramatic improvement from last year. Smith was able to bring in players from the Portal that fit the way he wants MSU to play,and on paper make the team look a lot better than a year ago. In total, Smith brought in 24 players from the Transfer Portal, and a few should contribute right away, including EDGE Quindarius Dunnigan, LB Jordan Turner and TE Jack Velling.

Despite new teams being added to the conference and the gantlet in the middle of the season, Michigan State fans should expect at least six wins. Just getting to a bowl game is never an acceptable goal for a successful season at Michigan State, but in Year 1, it would show Smith has the program going in the right direction.

Anything less than six games frankly would be unacceptable for a program like Michigan State and would be a disastrous year. It would also mean that Chiles is not the "X-Factor" fans hoped. A very good QB at minimum, gets you to six wins.

Michigan State fans will need to learn patience. Smith has already built a program that can compete with the conference's best, but it takes time. The Transfer Portal will speed up the timeframe, but the key is finding balance. The better programs have used the Portal to fill holes, while still using the recruitment of top high school talent to build rosters. That unfortunately takes time as you need to stack multiple top-ranked classes to have depth and talent on the roster to be able to compete with the best in the country.

The question is, will Spartan fans give Smith the same time as his alma mater did?