Oregon Faces Uphill Climb Despite Being No. 1 Seed

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Oregon (13-0) earned the No. 1 seed for being the only perfect team in college football and was rewarded with the hardest path to a national championship. The Ducks, who should be getting ready to play a game as a favorite, instead find themselves as a 2.5-point underdog. No. 6 seed Penn State (12-2), the team they beat in the Big Ten Conference Championship, game sits as a 11-point favorite in its College Football Playoff quarterfinal game again No. 3 seed Boise State (12-1)

Oregon, unlike teams who made the playoff due to a weak schedule, earned the top seed by beating three of the remaining seven teams in the CFP during the season. But instead of facing Boise State or No. 4 seed Arizona State (11-2), the Ducks play No. 8 seed Ohio State (11-2) in a rematch from Week 7.

Ohio State looked the most impressive in its win over the teams who played first-round games. Because of how good Ohio State looked, the Rose Bowl may be the de facto national championship game, pinning the No. 1 team against what should have been the No. 2 or No. 3 team.

Oregon's road to their first national championship should have been the easiest as the No. 1. But instead, poor planning in the CFP layout has caused them to arguably get the hardest. How the No. 1 seed in the playoff received the hardest path to a national championship is inexcusable. After seeing how this played out, Oregon's ability to win the national championship would it have been better if they didn’t win the Big Ten championship.

Ducks' Perfect season

Oregon's first year in the Big Ten Conference could not have been better. The Ducks finished undefeated and were Big Ten Champions. Oregon is the only team inside the Power Four conferences to finish undefeated.

Some teams’ schedules have been called into question this season, but Oregon wasn’t one of those teams. On their way to perfection, Oregon beat Boise State, Ohio State and Penn State, all three teams participating in the second round of the playoff.  

In Week 2 Oregon beat Boise State 37-34 and at the time it looked like a survival win. The Week 7 32-31 win over Ohio State became an instant classic and even brought about rule changes. The Big Ten Championship was a matchup with Penn State in which Oregon won 45-37 and never trailed at any point in the game.

B1G Championship Cost Them

Before the start of the 2024 season, the playoff was expanded to 12 teams and automatic bids with byes for the top-4 ranked conference champions. When the announcement was made it seemed like a great idea and would maintain the importance of winning your conference. A bye and the ability to sit back and watch your two potential opponents play seemed like a reward. But thanks to a poorly formulated playoff system, it would have been better to lose for Oregon then to win the game.

 Penn State, the team they beat in the championship game, ended up the No. 6 seed and beat No. 11 seed SMU (11-3). With the win, and because of the automatic seeds, Penn State is now matched up with Boise State and enters the game as an 11-point favorite. If Penn State wins they will play the winner of No. 7 seed Notre Dame (12-1) and No. 2 seed Georgia (11-2). Georgia (+480), Penn State (+500) and Norte Dame (+700) have the fourth, fifth and sixth-best odds to win the national championship.

Oregon, on the other hand, gets to play Ohio State and enters the game as a 2.5-point underdog to the Buckeyes. If Oregon beats Ohio State, their reward is to play the winner of No. 5 seed Texas (12-2) and Arizona State. Texas is favored by 13.5 points and most believe the game will look just like the first round did. A Texas and an Oregon win will mean the Ducks would have to beat the two teams with the best odds to advance to the national championship game. Texas, when the article was written, had the best odds at +310, Ohio State in second at +330 and Oregon sat third at +480.

Oregon, who controlled their fate all season, got screwed the minute they let someone else control it. The argument isn't did the committee put the wrong teams in? But instead, did the people involved in putting the playoff layout and criteria together for the CFP get it wrong?

Because of the criteria the committee was given and the layout of how the playoff works, it has placed any advantage that comes with the No. 1 seed in the garbage. Oregon now has the hardest road to win their first national championship in school history. But if they can accomplish it this Ducks team will go down as one of the greatest of all time.