Aug 217 min read

Predicting Outcomes of Kentucky Wildcats' Games in 2024

The Kentucky Wildcats have an interesting season ahead, trying to make some noise in the Southeastern Conference.

The school, known more for its basketball, moved on from legendary coach John Calipari, so maybe athletic director Mitch Barnhart is looking to switch the narrative.

The only way to switch from a “basketball school” to a “football school” is the performance on the field.

Head coach Mark Stoops has been trying to switch the narrative but has struggled. Stoops started his Kentucky tenure with a 2-10 season and in the past two years, he’s had back-to-back 7-6 seasons. His best season was a 10-3 finish in 2018.

Back-to-back 7-6 seasons have started to improve Stoops’ overall record in Lexington, Ky., which is two games short of .500. But, a game over .500 could be the norm for Stoops’ Kentucky team.

Stoops is trying to change that this year and has utilized the Transfer Portal to the best of its abilities. He brought in three quarterbacks, headlined by former Georgia backup Brock Vandagriff and Rutgers quarterback Gavin Wimsatt. The two are in a battle for the spot, but it looks like it’s going to be the former five-star recruit Vandagriff. Vandagriff wasn’t the only Bulldog Stoops grabbed. He also pulled linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson to the program to boost his defense. The defense already had some firepower with Deone Walker and JJ Weaver both posting 7 sacks a piece last year.

Kentucky, on paper, could be a sleeper team, but its schedule is not easy. Stoops is going to have to work this season to move past the narratives.

Week 1: Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Kentucky has a no-sweat Week 1 with Southern Miss on the schedule. The Golden Eagles won just three games last season and only two in the Conference USA, so it will be an opportunity for the Wildcats to get off some rust and get experimental to start the season. This will be a great opportunity to test out each transfer quarterback before getting into the SEC slate.

Kentucky starts the season on a win.

Record: 1-0

Week 2: South Carolina Gamecocks

South Carolina finished under .500 last season at 5-7, and finished tied with Kentucky with a 3-5 conference record. The Gamecocks are in the post-Spencer Rattler era and are turning to redshirt freshman LaNorris Sellers for the 2024 season. He auditioned in the spring game and seemed to get the part after throwing for 70 yards and rushing for 38. He’s still very young and has only played in three games, one of them being against Kentucky. The others were when the Gamecocks were up big.

Sellers will learn the ropes behind an offensive line that gave up 41 sacks a season ago, so the Wildcats defense will have a field day getting to the youngster.

Last year, South Carolina beat Kentucky at home, but this year, it’s in Lexington. This will be Sellers’ first SEC road game, and his first SEC loss as the starting quarterback.

Record: 2-0

Week 3: Georgia Bulldogs

The top-ranked team in the country—No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs—come to town on Sept. 14. In just Week 3, Vandagriff will face his former team. If the game goes anything like last year, it won’t be fun for Vandagriff and company.

Georgia stomped Kentucky 51-13. This year’s Wildcat team has improved in multiple aspects, but that doesn’t mean the outcome will be different against the favorites to win the national championship.

The Bulldogs hand Kentucky its first loss.

Record: 2-1

Week 4: Ohio Bobcats

After its first loss to the best team in the nation, Kentucky has a bit of an easier Week 4 matchup against Ohio. The Bobcats are not a team to tread lightly even though they’re not a Power Four school. Ohio had a 10-3 record in 2023 and finished the season with a 41-21 win over Georgia Southern in the Myrtle Beach Bowl.

However, the Bobcats, like most programs outside of the Power Four, were drained of its best players to the bigger conferences. Ohio lost 13 players to the Transfer Portal, and most importantly, it lost quarterback Kurtis Rourke to Indiana.

Beating Ohio won’t be easy. Kentucky is more powerful in more areas and will get a much-needed win going into Ole Miss.

Record: 3-1

Week 5: at Ole Miss Rebels

After beating Ohio to gain confidence, Kentucky will be brought back down to earth, traveling to Ole Miss. No. 6 Ole Miss has multiple offensive weapons and could be Lane Kiffin’s best roster since he took the job in 2019.

Kentucky has defensive stars, especially in the front seven, but wide receiver Tre Harris is going to be a problem for the secondary.

The Rebels finished the season at 11-2, the best record under Kiffin, and are definitely in line to make the 12-team College Football Playoff. Kentucky isn’t there yet and doesn’t have the playmakers to stop Ole Miss.

The past three meetings between the two teams have been one-score games. Ole Miss has still won all three of them, and the Rebels will come out on top again.

Record: 3-2

Week 6: Bye

Week 7: Vanderbilt Commodores

Kentucky had a tough start to the schedule, playing No. 1 Georgia and No. 6 Ole Miss, but it has a more manageable stretch, starting off against Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt has been the worst SEC team for years and will be again in 2024.

The Commodores did beat Kentucky in its five-win season in 2022. That win was a little blip and won’t happen again. Kentucky outmatches Vanderbilt in every facet. The Wildcats get a bounce-back win.

Record: 4-2

Week 8: at Florida Gators

This will be a tough road game for Kentucky in the Swamp. However, Stoops has done well against Florida recently. The Wildcats have beaten the Gators the past three years and dominated them last year, winning 33-14.

It might be a shaky start for Vandagriff as he gets used to the atmosphere, but he and the offense will find their footing. Billy Napier and Florida have one of the toughest schedules in the country and are just fighting for a bowl win. The Napier-led Florida hasn’t been the Florida college football is used to.

Kentucky has a slow start, but is more disciplined and gets the win.

Record: 5-2

Week 9: Auburn Tigers

Auburn’s coaching carousel has stopped at Hugh Freeze this time, a proven winner at Liberty. However, Freeze and Auburn are in the building phase and aren’t prepared for Kentucky’s defense.

Freeze’s offense, led by veteran quarterback Payton Thorne, will struggle against a solid front seven, especially with the Lexington crowd.

The series favors Auburn, who’s on a three-game win streak against the Wildcats. This is a much better Kentucky team than in years past.

It will be close, and Kentucky picks up the win at home.

Record: 6-2

Week 10: at Tennessee Volunteers

A 6-2 record heading into Week 10 is a really good start for Stoops and on pace for one of his best seasons. There are still a couple of games to go, though, and a trip to Neyland Stadium doesn’t seem favorable for Kentucky.

Tennessee’s offense is fast, and young quarterback Nico Iamaleava gives even more speed to the attack. In the two games Kentucky isn’t favored, the difference is speed. Iamaleava’s ability to get out of the pocket and turn a broken play into a big play will hurt Kentucky’s defense.

Historically, Tennessee has a 10-2 record in the last 12 meetings with Kentucky. Stoops doesn’t coach well against the Volunteers. Despite the game being one score last year, it was at Lexington and not in Knoxville, Tenn.

This isn’t the year Kentucky chips into Tennessee’s win total.

Record: 6-3

Week 11: Murray State Racers

After every tough game, Kentucky has an easier opponent lined up. It’s smart to build back confidence after taking a tough loss, and Murray State is another opportunity to boost morale. Murray State isn’t the best, even in the FCS. Last season, the Racers won just two games and haven’t won since Sep. 30, 2023.

The Wildcats will run up the score and get in their reserves once again.

Record: 7-3

Week 12: at Texas Longhorns

Texas is a contender to win the SEC and could win the national championship, too.

The Longhorns had some bad offseason injuries and lost some valuable players to the draft, but are still one of the best offenses in the nation with offensive-minded Steve Sarkisian at the helm.

Texas Longhorns — © Ricardo B. Brazziell/American-Statesman/USA TODAY NETWORK

Quarterback Quinn Ewers is back for another season, keeping Arch Manning on the bench, and still has weapons on the outside. Texas’ offensive line can keep Kentucky’s defense from getting to Ewers, allowing him to pick apart the Kentucky secondary.

This is another win for Texas in a pursuit to hoist the national championship at the start of the New Year.

Record: 7-4

Week 13: Louisville Cardinals

With four losses, unless a miracle happens, Kentucky is definitely out of the College Football Playoff and will be looking to finish the regular season above the consistent seven wins.

The finale is home against Louisville, which is definitely a winnable game for Kentucky.

Kentucky has owned Louisville since 2016, where the Wildcats have won six out of seven games. They are also on a five-game win streak against the Cardinals.

History is pointing to Kentucky finishing off the regular season on a win, and it’d be correct. Louisville’s 24-year-old quarterback Tyler Shough won’t do anything against Kentucky’s defense, and Vandagriff and the offense look sharp heading into bowl season.

Record: 8-4

Kentucky Wildcats Overview

An 8-4 record seems like a stretch without looking at Kentucky’s schedule. There are some tough games like Georgia at home, Ole Miss and Texas on the road that would be big upsets if Kentucky won. There are a lot of winnable games.

Kentucky can secure two wins in the closer-margin games like against Tennessee, Louisville and South Carolina, especially since two of those are at home.

If they lose all of those games, though, Stoops might be looking for a new job next season because that is definitely below expectations. Stoops has a schedule to get him to eight wins, which is a solid season for a lot of programs and should be for Kentucky this season.

Will it knock the “basketball school” narrative? Probably not since that will require a potential playoff appearance. It will be a step in a positive direction and not the stagnant 7-6 that has been produced in the past two years.