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The winds of change blew through Baton Rouge, La. at the end of the 2023 season. There are holes to fill from the nation's most dynamic offense. Heisman-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels, and top receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. took their talents to the NFL. Now junior Garrett Nussmeier has the keys to the offense. He has some huge cleats to fill, but there is plenty of momentum around him after he started the ReliaQuest Bowl and passed for 395 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Replacing a Heisman winner is always difficult, but replacing the production of his top targets may prove the tougher challenge. Senior receiver Kyren Lacy (558 yards, 7 touchdowns in 2023) leads a talented group of pass catchers attempting to fill the holes left behind by Nabers and Thomas. Transfers CJ Daniels (1,067 yards, 10 touchdowns at Liberty) and Zavion Thomas (503 yards, 1 touchdown at Miss. State) also look to make an immediate impact.
The change that has LSU fans excited is the switch at defensive coordinator. After LSU's defense gave up over 400 yards and 28 points a game in 2023, head coach Brian Kelly cleaned house on the defensive side of the ball, firing DC Matt House and several other coaches. Kelly hired Blake Baker in January. Baker takes over a talented unit and hopes to bring consistency with his player-friendly scheme. LSU's success this season will hinge on the defense's potential improvement.
Predicting the Games
LSU has a handful of difficult games with the non-conference schedule consisting of USC and UCLA, and a tough group of conference games. However, they do get Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma at home. Let's get into it.
Week 1: USC Trojans (Las Vegas)
The Bayou Bengals' new defense will be tested early as they kick off the season in the Modelo Vegas Kickoff Classic against USC and Lincoln Riley's high-flying offense. This will be the third time the teams have faced one another, with the previous two meetings happening in 1979 and 1984. The two squads split the series. USC won the first matchup 17-12, and LSU won the '84 contest 23-3.
This is a cool helmet game, and the teams match up well on paper. Both hang their hats on their dynamic offenses and have major question marks on defense. Plenty of points will be scored, but it ultimately comes down to which defense is on the field the longest. LSU should be able to move the ball on the ground behind an elite offensive line and keep Miller Moss and the Trojan offense on the sideline. LSU wins the game 49-38.
Record: 1-0
Week 2: Nicholls Colonels
Believe it or not, Nicholls and LSU have a deeply intertwined history. Nicholls was once Francis T. Nicholls Junior College of Louisiana State University. The schools separated into individual four-year universities in 1956. As for the gridiron, this will be the first-ever meeting between the two schools.
This will be a cakewalk for the Tigers and a prime opportunity for LSU to tweak any issues identified in the previous week. Expect Nussmeier and the starters to be on the sideline sometime during the third quarter as LSU rolls through the outmatched Colonels.
Record: 2-0
Week 3: at South Carolina Gamecocks
LSU is 19-2-1 all-time against the Gamecocks and won the most recent matchup in 2020, 51-24. Expect much of the same this year in Columbia, S.C. It is the Southeastern Conference opener and LSU's first official away game. Williams-Bryce Stadium can be a tricky atmosphere, and if LSU's defense isn't locked in, SC could pose a threat on the ground with Arkansas transfer running back Rocket Sanders leading the way. But don't bet on that. LSU's talent level will prove too much for the plucky Gamecocks, and the Tigers will have the crowd silenced by halftime.
Record: 3-0
Week 4: UCLA Bruins
When LSU plays host to the Bruins in Death Valley it will only be the second time the two programs have met. The first meeting happened in 2021, and UCLA came out on top 38-27. Don't expect a repeat performance. Former Bruins head coach Chip Kelly led UCLA to a respectable three straight eight-win seasons. Now Kelly is gone, and new coach DeShawn Foster didn't do a lot to inspire confidence in the program during his media days press conference.
UCLA's offense shouldn't take any major steps back as Eric Bieniemy takes over as offensive coordinator, and the Bruins should have a stout rush defense in 2024. However, once again it comes down to the Jimmys and Joes, and LSU's talent is too much for the Bruins. The Tigers handle business in front of a typical LSU raucous home crowd.
Record: 4-0
Week 5: South Alabama Jaguars
The South Alabama Jaguars travel to Baton Rouge for their first-ever meeting with LSU. South Alabama is still a young program (established in 2009) and has been mostly middling in the Sun Belt Conference. USA won its first bowl game last season under former head coach Kane Womack.
Unless something drastic happens, like the entire LSU team coming down with a stomach bug, this should be a glorified walk-through for the Tigers. LSU outmatches the Jaguars at every level. This game will essentially allow LSU to have consecutive bye weeks heading into a string of SEC contests.
Record: 5-0
Week 6: Bye
Week 7: Ole Miss Rebels
The Magnolia Bowl, the name bestowed upon the annual matchup between Ole Miss and LSU in 2008, has been played 112 times, including every year since 1945. LSU leads the series 63-42-4. Last season's contest was full of fireworks and saw Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart and the Ole Miss offense outlast Daniels and LSU. Ole Miss won 55-49.
This is already one of the most anticipated games of the 2024 season, and barring a catastrophic early-season collapse by either team, it could be a top-10 matchup by the time the Rebels roll into Death Valley. Regardless of the teams' potential defensive improvements, expect the scoreboard operator to be busy.
Jaxson Dart carries experience and high expectations into the night game in Tiger Stadium, a scenario traditionally not very kind to visiting teams. Dart stood toe to toe with the Heisman winner in 2023, and should put up impressive numbers again this year. More will be put on Dart's shoulders after star running back Quinshon Judkins transferred to Ohio State in the offseason.
Strap in for an explosive matchup, but expect the environment to be too much for the Rebels as LSU's defense gets that extra stop to seal it in the end for the Tigers.
Record: 6-0
Week 8: at Arkansas Razorbacks
The Battle for the Boot is an underrated SEC rivalry. The game dates back to 1901 when LSU won 15-0. The Tigers lead the all-time series over the Razorbacks 42-23-2. Arkansas expects improvement on offense despite the transfers of quarterback KJ Jefferson and running back Rocket Sanders. Former Razorback head coach Bobby Petrino joins Sam Pittman's staff as offensive coordinator and takes over an offense that ranked 105th in the nation in 2023.
Petrino has been among the best playcallers in college football during his career, but don't anticipate him making much of a difference in this game. LSU could fall victim to plenty of trapdoors in this game against a traditional rival, on the road, after an emotionally taxing shootout (win or lose) the previous week. An upset could happen. But it won't. LSU will handle the high from the week before and run away with the game late.
Record: 7-0
Week 9: at Texas A&M Aggies
The former Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Association foes first met in 1899, and have faced one another 62 times. LSU holds the lead at 32-23-3 and took last season's game 42-30.
This one could be tricky for the Bayou Bengals, a rivalry game against a talent-riddled team, the week after another rivalry game, and the game before one of the most relevant rivalries in the SEC ('Bama). A&M fell far short of expectations in the Jimbo Fisher era, but the recruiting has been there. The Aggies are an extremely talented group, and new head coach Mike Elko looks to unleash that potential on the SEC in 2024.
A&M is one of the few teams on LSU's schedule that may be able to pose a challenge for the Tigers' NFL-level offensive line. But as long as Nussmeier is protected, and LSU can circumvent the pitfalls of distraction, expect the Tigers' offense to come out on top as A&M's offense struggles against the new and improved LSU defense. Expect A&M to be a problem under Elko, but not LSU's problem this year.
Record: 8-0
Week 10: Bye
Week 11: Alabama Crimson Tide
LSU and Alabama have met 88 times since 1895, with 'Bama leading the series 56-27-5, including a 42-28 win in 2023. The game is traditionally one of the most anticipated annual matchups, almost invariably must-watch football, especially during the 17 years that 'Bama head coach Nick Saban stalked the sideline.
Some may expect the Crimson Tide to take a step back after the retirement of one of the greatest coaches in the history of college football. But, hark! 'Bama isn't going anywhere. Not for a while, at least. Saban didn't leave that cupboard bare. It wouldn't be a shock if 'Bama quarterback Jalen Milroe got an invite to New York for the Heisman presentation, and the Tide's defensive front seven will match up well with LSU's line.
This game is difficult to predict, but expect Milroe to flourish in new head coach Kalen DeBoer's system. Even after a bye week, the grind of the season catches up to LSU here, and Milroe and the 'Bama offense prove too much for the new Tigers defense. The Tide rolls in Death Valley and pulls out a close victory in a playoff-like atmosphere.
Record: 8-1
Week 12: at Florida Gators
The Florida/LSU rivalry has delivered some of the most iconic moments in the SEC since 2000, including the 2020 "shoe throw" game. Florida leads the all-time series by a slight margin, 33-31-3. But LSU has won five straight, including a 52-35 victory in 2023, in a game that may have been Jayden Daniels' signature Heisman moment as he became the first player ever to rush for 200 yards and pass for 350 yards in a single game.
These Gators could be desperate come Nov. 16. Expect slight improvement from the 2023 squad, but if Florida head coach Billy Napier makes it to November, he will be coaching for his job. Also, the game is in "The Swamp," and it's not like the Gators are bereft of talent. Coming off a heartbreaker the previous week, this game could pose a trap for the Tigers. Nevertheless, LSU rebounds here after the loss to 'Bama. The Tigers have too much firepower for the Gators to handle, and if it's bad enough, Napier may not make it off the field with his job.
Record: 9-1
Week 13: Vanderbilt Commodores
LSU holds the series lead over the Commodores, 24-7-1. The last meeting resulted in a 41-7 drubbing by the Tigers. Don't expect much change to the trend this year. Vandy is every SEC fan's favorite academic contribution to the conference, but they have nothing for the Tigers on the field. 41-7 is closer than what the score could end up being this season.
Record: 10-1
Week 14: Oklahoma Sooners
This will be the fourth meeting between LSU and Oklahoma. LSU is 2-1 in the three previous meetings. The most recent contest was in 2019, when Joe Burrow obliterated the Sooner defense, throwing for 493 yards and 7 passing touchdowns. The Tigers won 63-28.
Poor Oklahoma. The Sooners are welcomed to the SEC with one of the hardest schedules in the country, including six top 15 matchups, and a trip to Jordan Hare Stadium (one of the toughest venues in sports). By the time the Sooners make the trip to Baton Rouge, they will have procured their fair share of conference losses. And their journey becomes no less arduous in Death Valley.
OU will be coming off a probable loss to Alabama, so they might be motivated to gain some conference respect. But LSU will be red hot at 10-1, gearing up for a potential SEC championship game appearance and a playoff run. The Tigers' control of the line of scrimmage will prove too much for the battered Sooners.
Record: 11-1
LSU Overview
If Nussmeier lives up to expectations and Blake Baker has the anticipated impact on the defense, LSU will finish 11-1. With that record, the Tigers will find themselves staring down a potential SEC title and position in the College Football Playoff.
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