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The Air Force Falcons are poised to make a strong run at a Mountain West Conference championship despite having the least amount of returning production in FBS for 2024. The Falcons are replacing more than a dozen starters from a 2023 team that finished 9-4 with a 31-21 victory over James Madison in the Armed Forces Bowl. Coach Troy Calhoun is accustomed to reloading each year in Colorado Springs, Colo.
Fly Fight Win
This season will be Calhoun's 18th year leading the Falcons. Calhoun's Air Force teams have maintained a level of consistency generally unattainable for the Service Academies. During his tenure, the Falcons have been to 13 bowl games, posted five seasons of 10 or more wins, won the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy five times and have finished with a losing record only four times.
Air Force got off to a scorching hot 8-0 start last season, including big road wins against Navy and Colorado State. The Falcons even reached as high as No. 17 in the AP Poll in early November. They abruptly crashed back down to Earth after a 23-3 beating at the hands of Army at Mile High Stadium in Denver. The Falcons lost the next three games to end a once-promising regular season on a sour note.
Offensive Preview
Calhoun and the Falcons have finished in the top four in rushing in the FBS in 13 of the last 15 years. Last season, Air Force averaged 281 yards per game on the ground. Five out of the six leading rushers from last year are gone, including running back Emmanuel Michel and quarterback Zachar Larrier.
The Falcons will need RB's Dylan Carson and Aiden Calvert to become leaders in the backfield. The two combined for close to 700 rushing yards in 2023. QB John Busha saw limited action last season and is more effective as a passer than a runner. Air Force returns senior wide receiver Jared Roznos, who led the Falcons with 12 receptions for 374 yards and 3 touchdowns last year. The big question mark is the offensive line, who does not return a player with a single start from last season.
Defensive Preview
Air Force ranked 12th in the nation last year in scoring defense, allowing only 18.2 points per game. The Falcons ranked inside the top seven in both rushing defense and total defense. They will replace all but three starters on defense. Fortunately, one of the players returning is senior defensive lineman Payton Zdroik, who accounted for 32 tackles, 6.5 TFL and 4.5 sacks in 2023.
In the secondary, the Falcons will be anchored by Jamari Bellamy, a 6-foot-2 senior cornerback from Atlanta. Bellamy started all 13 games for the Falcons last season, recording 35 tackles, 5 pass break-ups and an interception. Joining him in the back end of the defense will be senior safety Camby Goff, who missed all but one game last season after suffering an injury in the season opener. Goff was named an honorable mention on the All-MWC team in 2022 after finishing with 42 tackles, 9 PBUs and a team-leading 3 INTs.
Week 1: Merrimack Warriors
Air Force will open up the 2024 season with a home contest against the Merrimack Warriors on Aug. 31 in the first ever meeting between the two teams. Merrimack is an FCS independent squad that finished 5-6 in 2023. The Falcons should cruise through this glorified scrimmage against the Warriors.
Record: 1-0
Week 2: San Jose State Spartans
MWC play starts for the Falcons on Sept. 7 with a matchup against San Jose State. Air Force won last year's contest 45-20 and is 5-2 all-time against the Spartans. San Jose State lost their head coach Brent Brennan to the Arizona Wildcats after the season ended and hired former Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo to fill his position.
Much to the chagrin of Service Academy enthusiasts everywhere, San Jose State is not expected to implement Niumatalolo's triple option system. The Falcons should be able to run at will against a Spartan defense that ranked 102nd in rushing defense in 2023.
Record: 2-0
Week 3: at Baylor Bears
A trip to Waco, Texas, to take on the Baylor Bears awaits the Falcons on Sept. 14. Baylor finished with a disappointing 3-9 record in 2023, and head coach Dave Aranda's seat is heating up.
The Bears hold a 3-1 edge all-time against Air Force, but the Falcons bested Baylor 30-15 in their last meeting, at the 2022 Armed Forces Bowl. The home field advantage, along with former Toledo and current Baylor QB Dequan Finn, will prove to be too much for Air Force to handle.
Record: 2-1
Week 4: Bye
Week 5: at Wyoming Cowboys
On Sept. 28, Air Force renews their rivalry with the Cowboys at War Memorial Stadium in Laramie, Wyo. The Falcons hold a 31-27-3 advantage in the all-time series with Wyoming and won a 34-27 thriller at home last year.
The Cowboys will be a tough matchup for the Falcons along the lines of scrimmage, but Air Force outlasts Wyoming and escapes with a victory.
Record: 3-1
Week 6: Navy Midshipmen
On Oct. 5, the first game in the race for the CIC Trophy takes place between the Falcons and the Midshipmen. Air Force leads the series 34-22 and is on a four-game winning streak. The Falcons won last year's matchup 17-6 in Annapolis, Md. The home crowd will be fired up and Air Force pulls away late in a tight contest on the strength of their rushing attack.
Record: 4-1
Week 7: at New Mexico Lobos
Air Force will travel to Albuquerque, N.M., on Oct. 12 to take on the Lobos. With newly hired head coach Bronco Mendenhall at the helm, New Mexico will improve as a football program, but not well enough to beat Air Force in 2024. The Falcons win big in this conference road matchup.
Record: 5-1
Week 8: Colorado State Rams
Last year, the Falcons beat the Rams for the seventh consecutive season in a snowball-filled game in Fort Collins, Colo. On Oct. 19, Colorado State makes the trek to Falcon Stadium in a showdown between the state's two best football programs. Air Force holds a 39-21-1 edge in the battle for the Ram-Falcon Trophy and have won 15 out of the last 17 meetings.
The Rams return QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi and WR Tory Horton, two key components of a passing attack that finished 9th in the country averaging 306 yards per game. Air Force is pushed. but finds a way to get it done at home.
Record: 6-1
Week 9: Bye
Week 10: at Army Black Knights
The Falcons will welcome the week off prior to their road trip to West Point, N.Y., on Nov. 2 to take on the Black Knights. Army has had the upper hand on the Falcons of late, winning five out of the last seven, although Air Force has a massive advantage in the all-time series.
The Falcons were embarrassed by Army last season, turning the ball over six times on their way to a 23-3 loss. Air Force takes better care of the football and kicker Matthew Dapore makes some timely field goals to win a close game. The Falcons exact their revenge in this one to take the CIC Trophy outright.
Record: 7-1
Week 11: Fresno State Bulldogs
The last matchup between the two Mountain West foes was a 43-24 Falcons victory in 2019. Air Force leads the overall series 7-3. When they play on Nov. 9, the Bulldogs will be without Jeff Tedford, who resigned from the head coaching position on July 15 due to health concerns.
The Bulldogs and QB Mikey Keene will pose the biggest threat off all Air Force's conference opponents. Keene threw for nearly 3,000 yards and 24 TDs in 2023. Fresno State steals a victory in Colorado Springs.
Record: 7-2
Week 12: Oregon State Beavers
The Falcons and Beavers will face off for the first time ever on the football field Nov. 16. Oregon State and Washington State each have scheduling arrangements with the MWC this year, after the Pac-12 Conference was left to die in 2023 following the latest wave of conference realignment.
The Beavers finished 8-5 overall last year, defeating two MWC opponents by a combined score of 68-26. Air Force will host Oregon State at Falcon Stadium for their regular season home finale. The Beavers will be without the nucleus of last year's team, including head coach Jonathan Smith, QB's DJ Uiagalelei and Aidan Chiles, RB Damien Martinez and WR Silas Bolden. The Oregon State pass rush will cause major disruptions to the Falcons inexperienced offensive line.
Record: 7-3
Week 13: at Nevada Wolf Pack
The Falcons lead the overall series 5-2 and won the last matchup 48-20 in 2022. The Wolf Pack are coming off consecutive 2-10 seasons and have hired a new coaching staff. The Nov. 23 game won't be close for long, and the Falcons will roll to an easy victory.
Record: 8-3
Week 14: at San Diego State Aztecs
Air Force leads the all-time series with San Diego State 21-18 and has won the last two matchups against the Aztecs. Last year's final score at Falcon Stadium was 49-10 in favor of Air Force, but this game should be much closer.
San Diego State hired former Colorado offensive coordinator Sean Lewis as the new head coach. Lewis will get the Aztec offense on the right track, but it may not be enough to knock off the visiting Falcons on Nov. 30.
Record: 9-3
Week 15: Mountain West Championship
Air Force currently has the fourth-best odds to win the MWC. They play eight games this season against teams that did not make a bowl last year. The Falcons do not play Boise State or UNLV, two of the three teams picked ahead of them in the conference. The game against Fresno State is at home in Falcon Stadium, so Air Force will have better than a puncher's chance to win. The MWC Championship Game will take place on Dec. 6.
Air Force Falcons Overview
The Falcons return the least amount of production in the country per ESPN's Bill Connelly. The zero starts on the offensive line is undoubtedly the biggest question mark for this year's squad. Nine wins seems slightly more likely than eight given the generous conference slate, but the Falcons will have big tests this year considering the lack of proven talent and depth.
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