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Predicting the Outcomes of the SMU Mustangs' Games in 2024

SMU Mustangs
© Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports

After decades in purgatory, following the NCAA's imposition of the death penalty, the SMU Mustangs have returned to the upper echelon of college football, entering the Power Four's Atlantic Coast Conference. Coach Rhett Lashlee and talented quarterback Preston Stone hope to fast-track the Ponies' journey back to prominence.


The Mustangs' 2024 schedule features intriguing matchups, including a century-old rivalry and new challenges. How will the Ponies fare in 2024? Here is College Football Dawgs' week-by-week assessment.


Week 0: at Nevada Wolf Pack

Out of the 134 FBS teams, the Nevada Wolf Pack is rated No. 126 by the College Football Network. SMU is rated nearly 90 spots higher, at No. 33. The Action Network in Las Vegas favors SMU by 26 points. When the Mustangs and Nevada meet on Aug. 24 in Reno, Nev., expect the Ponies to unleash their explosive offense against an overmatched opponent. Early on, Stone will connect with talented wide receivers Romello Brinson and Jordan Hudson. Then, expect a heavy dose of runs from Doak Walker Award candidate Jaylan Knighton. Nevada does not have the talent to keep up with SMU in this season-opening matchup.


Record: 1-0.


Week 1: Houston Christian University Huskies

Houston Christian University, formerly known as Houston Baptist University, is a member of the Southland Conference in the FCS. The Huskies began playing in 2013. In 11 seasons, HCU's record is 26-84. HCU is a private university with a $132 million endowment and a well-regarded theological graduate program. However, HCU has no chance of competing with SMU on the gridiron.



Las Vegas oddsmakers favor SMU by four touchdowns in this one.


Record: 2-0.


Week 2: BYU Cougars

The Cougars are coming off a 5-7 season, in which they mustered only two wins in the Big 12 Conference. They head to Dallas to play SMU on Sept. 6 at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. In a scheduling quirk, BYU's opening game in 2024 is SMU's third. Absent unforeseen circumstances, BYU will not be able to match up with SMU's talent on both sides of the ball.


Record: 3-0.



Week 3: Bye


Week 4: TCU Horned Frogs

SMU and TCU have clashed more than 100 times in a rivalry known as the Battle of the Iron Skillet. The campuses of SMU and TCU are separated by less than 50 miles. Both universities are in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, with SMU in Dallas and TCU in Fort Worth. Since 1915, there have been only seven years in which TCU and SMU did not meet. Those missed games were attributable to historical matters such as World War I, the NCAA's imposition of the death penalty upon SMU and the COVID pandemic. Over the course of the series, TCU has won 53 games, SMU has won 42 and the teams have tied 7 times.


TCU Horned Frogs vs. SMU Mustangs
© Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

TCU went 5-7 last season, while SMU went 11-3. TCU is ranked No. 10 in the Big 12 Conference's preseason media rankings. The Mustangs and Horned Frogs meet on Sept. 21 in Dallas, and SMU will bring home the iron skillet.


Record: 4-0.


Week 5: Florida State Seminoles

SMU's schedule in September keeps the team in Dallas for the entire month. However, the last matchup of the month is a tough one against Florida State. After the undefeated Seminoles were snubbed by the College Football Playoff Selection Committee in 2023, the chancellors of the university sued the ACC, seeking to leave the conference which SMU was pleased to join. Mike Norvell has led the Seminoles to 10-3 and 13-1 records in the last two seasons. Florida State is ranked No. 10 in ESPN's preseason top 25 poll. QB DJ Uiagalelei and other FSU playmakers will hand the Mustangs their first loss of the season.


Record: 4-1.


FSU v. SMU
© Alicia Devine/USA TODAY NETWORK

Week 6: at Louisville Cardinals

On Oct. 5, the Mustangs head to Louisville, Ky., to take on the Cardinals, who went 10-4 in 2023, with a 6-1 home record that included an impressive victory over Notre Dame. College Football Network rates Louisville the No. 26 team in the nation this year. Heading into Jeff Brohm's second season at the helm, the Cardinals put together one of the best Transfer Portal classes in the nation, headlined by WRs Ja’Corey Brooks and Caullin Lacy. The Cardinals will hand SMU its second consecutive conference defeat.


Record: 4-2


Week 7: Bye


Week 8: at Stanford Cardinal

After playing the Cardinals (plural) of Louisville, SMU travels out to Palo Alto, Calif., to take on the Cardinal (singular) of Stanford. Stanford University is one of the premier academic institutions in the world. Situated on prime real estate in Northern California's Bay Area, "The Farm" also plays host to occasional college football excellence and the quirkiest collegiate band in the United States. However, Stanford football has been down recently.


Stanford Cardinal players | SMU Mustangs opponent
© D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports

The Cardinal struggled last season, ending up with a 3-9 record. Given the strength of Stanford's schedule in 2024, it will be challenging for the team to turn things around. Another 3-9 season has been predicted by 247Sports for the Cardinal, with victories against only Cal Poly, Wake Forest and San Jose State. SMU will return to its winning ways in this matchup in the Bay Area.


Record: 5-2


Week 9: at Duke Blue Devils

After playing in Northern California, the Ponies cross the country to play the Blue Devils on Oct. 26 in Durham, N.C. Duke is coming off a puzzling 2023 campaign, finishing with an 8-5 record that involved highly impressive wins over Clemson and North Carolina State and an inexplicable loss to Virginia. Riley Leonard, who quarterbacked Duke in 2022 and 2023, transferred to Notre Dame. In a recently released preseason poll, Sports Illustrated rated Duke No. 11 out of the 17 ACC teams. Although the travel might make this game challenging for the Mustangs, they will overcome the challenge and pull this one out.


Record: 6-2


Week 10: Pitt Panthers

On Nov. 2., the Panthers travel to Dallas for a matchup in SMU's 2024 homecoming game. Pitt struggled last season, finishing 3-9, and is rated No. 16 out of the 17 ACC teams in the aforementioned Sports Illustrated preseason poll.


Pitt Panthers | SMU Mustangs
© Michael Longo/For USA Today Network/USA TODAY NETWORK

Coach Pat Narduzzi may be on the hot seat if things do not turn around fairly soon at Pitt. And, the offseason has not been kind for the Panthers, as they lost numerous key pieces of their defense. SMU will coast to its third victory in a row.


Record: 7-2


Week 11: Bye



Week 12: Boston College Eagles

On Dec. 28, 2023, SMU and Boston College met in the Fenway Bowl in BC's backyard. The Eagles beat the Mustangs, who were without starting QB Stone, who suffered a broken leg in the team's regular-season finale against the Navy Midshipmen. The teams are slated to meet again on Nov. 16 in Dallas.


Last year's coach, Jeff Haley left to take the defensive coordinator position with the Green Bay Packers, and the Eagles hired Bill O'Brien to replace him, BC has playmakers on offense, including QB Thomas Castellanos and RBs Kye Robichaux and Treshaun Ward. However, they have question marks on the defensive side of the ball. The Mustangs will avenge their bowl game loss to the Eagles.


Record: 8-2


Week 13: at Virginia Cavaliers

On Nov. 23, the Mustangs meet the Cavaliers in beautiful Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Va. While the stadium is pretty, the product the Cavaliers have been putting on the gridiron in recent years has been anything but. They were 3-7 in 2022 and went 3-9 in 2023. College Football Network rates the Cavaliers No. 88 out of the 134 FBS teams. The Mustangs have more talent than the Cavaliers on both sides of the ball and will win this game.


Record: 9-2


Virginia Cavaliers | SMU Mustangs
© Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Week 14: Cal Golden Bears

The Cal Golden Bears football team represents the University of California at Berkeley. The football program has a rich history dating back to its commencement of play in 1886. The Golden Bears have won five national titles. However, the last was in 1937.


Justin Wilcox, who played defensive back for the Oregon Ducks in the late 1990s, has been Cal's coach since 2017. Wilcox will rely on talented redshirt sophomore Fernando Mendoza to quarterback the team. The 6-foot-5 signal caller took over the starting role last year, threw for 1,708 yards and 14 touchdowns and led Cal to victories over Washington State, UCLA and longtime rival Stanford. Talented junior running back Jaydn Ott returns to lead a potent Bears rushing attack. Ott was named first-team All-Pac-12 Conference last year and is listed by On3 Sports as one of the top 100 players in college football for the 2024 season.


This will be a closely contested game, but the Golden Bears will come away with the win.


Record: 9-3


SMU Mustangs Pony Up

A 9-3 record would be nothing for SMU fans to sneeze at in the team's inaugural ACC season. And, with the Mustangs's recent success on the recruiting trail, the future looks bright for SMU.





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