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Gus Malzahn enters his fourth season as head coach of UCF, and looks to rebound after the Knights had their first losing season in seven years during their inaugural season in the Big 12 Conference. Leading the charge on the rebound will be an offense absolutely loaded with talent. Malzahn is known for his rushing offenses, and this season he will have plenty of toys to work with. The Knights boast two top-10 rushers from 2023 in RJ Harvey (1,416 yards, 16 touchdowns) and Toledo transfer Peny Boone. UCF also returns three starters on the offensive line.
Orchestrating Malzahn's system will be Arkansas transfer KJ Jefferson. Jefferson will pair well with the stout running back room as he can be an asset on the ground (1,876 career rush yards, 21 touchdowns), as well. The Knights will lean heavily on the run game, but Jefferson and a talented group of receivers could lead to a more balanced attack.
Malzahn hired Ted Roof as defensive coordinator in the offseason. Roof takes over a unit that had its ups and downs—mostly downs—in 2023. Knights fans hope Roof can turn the defense into a more consistent unit. UCF brought in a host of talented transfers to help patch the holes on that side of the ball.
With the departures of perineal conference powers Texas and Oklahoma, the Big 12 is wide open. If the offense can stay healthy, and the defense improves under Roof, Malzahn and the Knights should be able to push for a conference title.
Predicting the Games
UCF has a favorable schedule ahead of them, and could be favored in as many as nine games in 2024. UCF has the talent to match up with the conference's best, including Utah at the end of the season. Let's get into predicting the games.
Week 1: New Hampshire Wildcats
This will be the first meeting between UCF and New Hampshire of the FCS. The Wildcats lost star running back Dylan Laube to the NFL, and star quarterback Max Bromer to the Transfer Portal (Minnesota), but return plenty of talent at the skill positions. New Hampshire should make plenty of noise in the Coastal Athletic Association, but don't expect them to put up much of a fight against UCF. The game should be a light warmup to start the season as Harvey and company get rolling early.
Record: 1-0
Week 2: Sam Houston Bearkats
It will be the first time UCF and Sam Houston have face each other when the Bearkats head into FBC Mortgage Stadium. Sam Houston is coming off a 3-9 season in their first year in the FBS. The Bearkats struggled mightily on offense in 2023 (2.9 yards per rushing attempt), and in pass rush (only 17 sacks). Don't expect a much better showing than that against UCF. The Knights will get one more tune-up before beginning Big 12 play the following week.
Record: 2-0
Week 3: at TCU Horned Frogs
It will be the first time UCF has met the Horned Frogs when the two teams open up Big 12 play. TCU is coming off a disappointing 5-7 in 2023, the year after their College Football Playoff National Championship appearance.
The Horned Frogs turned the ball over 19 times on offense, but still managed to average 31.3 points per game, and their defense was atrocious. Expect the Knights to move the ball easily on a defense that ranked 110th nationally against the pass (253.7 yards per game), and was 76th in scoring defense. Sonny Dykes and the Frogs will look to bounce back in 2024, but the turn around doesn't start here.
Record: 3-0
Week 4: Bye
Week 5: Colorado Buffaloes
The Bounce House will be rocking when Deion "Coach Prime" Sanders and the Buffaloes come to town. It will be the first meeting between the two programs. Colorado was 4-8 in conference in their return season to the Big 12. The Buffaloes lost eight of their last nine games, including six straight to close out 2023. The offense gave up 52 sacks, and the defense was 121st in points per game. "Coach Prime" made changes at both offensive and defensive coordinator positions, and added more than 40 players from the Transfer Portal to try and rectify the Buffaloes' weaknesses. Colorado may be able to move the ball some with electric players like Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, but the defense won't have an answer for Harvey and the Knights' rushing attack. UCF should handle Colorado without much issue.
Record: 4-0
Week 6: at Florida gators
It will be the fourth time the Gators and the Knights have faced off when UCF visits the Swamp. UCF holds the series lead 2-1, and won the previous meeting 29-17 in the 2021 Gasparilla Bowl. Gators head coach Billy Napier could be coaching for his job this season, and if Florida were to fall to the in-state Knights, Napier's season could end that same night.
There isn't a lot of optimism surrounding the Gators headed into the 2024 season, but the roster is still packed with talent. Florida returns three starters to what was an elite run blocking group in 2023, and Graham Mertz is healthy and should once again be one of the more accurate passers in the nation.
Malzahn has always been good at stealing games he has no business winning, and the Knights are talented enough to make the Gators uncomfortable for most of the game. But Florida pulls this one out, and Napier lives to coach another week.
Record: 4-1
Week 7: Cincinnati Bearcats
The Bearcats and Knights have played nine times. UCF holds the series lead 5-4, and won last season's matchup 28-26. Both teams struggled in their Big 12 debut seasons. Tyson Veidt takes over a Bearcats defense that ranked 100th nationally in scoring defense, giving up 30 points per game. But the offense rushed for 217.1 yards a game, good enough for No. 5 nationally. Cincy's offense could push the Knights, but expect Jefferson and friends to move the ball with ease against the Bearcats.
Record: 5-1
Week 8: at Iowa State Cyclones
A year of firsts for the Knights, as it will be the first game against Iowa State. The Cyclones return the majority of their offensive and defensive production in 2024. Iowa State is among the schools hoping to benefit from Texas and Oklahoma's departures.
UCF and Iowa State matchup well on paper as two of the more experienced teams in the conference, and this game will be crucial for either teams' conference title hopes. Look for both teams to lean on the run game in a close contest, but Iowa State's depth on defense prevails.
Record: 5-2
Week 9: BYU Cougars
This will be the fourth meeting between the Cougars and the Knights. BYU leads the series 2-1, and won the previous meeting in 2020, 49-23. BYU closed out 2023 in a slump, losing five consecutive games to finish the season. The Cougar offense struggled in the run game, averaging only 3.5 yards per carry. Kalani Sitaki's team looks to bounce back in 2024 after returning a lot of talent that missed significant time in 2023 due to injury. But it won't be enough. The Knights are too talented for the Cougars.
Record: 6-2
Week 10: Arizona Wildcats
It will be the first meeting between the two teams as Arizona expects to contend for a conference title in their first season in the Big 12. There is momentum around the Wildcats program, despite head coach Jedd Fisch's departure, after the team closed out 2023 with seven straight victories. New head coach Brent Brennan takes over a program that took a hit in the Transfer Portal after Fisch left, but returns plenty of talent to make life hard on the Knights. Specifically in quarterback Noah Fifita, and receiver Tetairoa McMillan, but of which are stars with NFL aspirations.
The Wildcats face off against the Knights in the annual Space Game. UCF is undefeated in the Space Game, but don't expect that trend to continue. Arizona's dynamic duo is too much for the Knights' defense, and they outlast UCF's potent offense.
Record: 6-3
Week 11: at Arizona State Sun Devils
This will be the second meeting between the Sun Devils and the Knights. Arizona State won the previous meeting way back in 2002, 46-13. ASU was 3-9 in Kenny Dillingham's first year as head coach, and look to rebound in a wide-open Big 12. However, prospects don't look good after the Sun Devils lost a lot from an already depleted roster. Don't expect ASU to have much for the Knights as Malzahn gets the run game going early, and cruises past the Sun Devils.
Record: 7-3
Week 12: Bye
Week 13: at West Virginia Mountaineers
This will be the fourth all-time meeting between UCF and West Virginia. The Mountaineers are 3-0 in the previous matchups, and won last season's meeting 41-28. West Virginia returns a lot to a team that won nine games in 2023, including three starters on the offensive line and two leading rushers to an offense that led the Big 12 in rushing. The defense added talent through the Transfer Portal to a unit that led the conference in sacks in 2023.
West Virginia has depth and experience and should be in the thick of the Big 12 conversation. However, this is one of those classic Malzahn upsets. Both teams will lean heavy on the run, but Jefferson's experience and arm will be the difference maker as Malzahn and UCF steal a huge one.
Record: 8-3
Week 14: Utah Utes
It will be the first time the two teams have played each other when Utah enters the Bounce House for the final regular season game of the year. The Utes will be among the nation's elites this year with the return of star quarterback Cam Rising. Utah not only expects to compete for a Big 12 title in 2024, but have their eyes set on a deep playoff run, as well.
All the pieces are in place for Utah to make a strong postseason run. Not only does Rising return from his injury, but so does tight end Brant Kuithe and running back Micha Bernard. The Utes only return two starters to the offensive line, but the unit is still expected to be among the nation's best. Junior Tafuna leads a group of returning starters on defensive line that will lead a defensive unit that was 13th in the country in total defense a year ago, and fourth in the country in rush defense.
UCF is dynamic enough to hang around with Utah, but as long as the Utes are healthy the Knights will be outmatched. Expect Rising and Utah to pull away in the fourth quarter.
Record: 8-4
UCF Overview
Malzahn and the Knights will need to find more than eight wins if they hope to play for a Big 12 title, and they very well could. Jefferson, Harvey and the Knight offense will make UCF a difficult out in any game they play this year. If the defense takes a major step forward under Roof it's possible UCF could steal another game or two. And if that is the case, Knight fans should not only have their sights set on the Big 12, but a potential playoff spot as well.
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