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University of Hawai'i legend Timmy Chang enters his third season as head coach of his alma mater. The Rainbow Warriors look to build on the momentum from last year after the team won three out of their last four games.
The offense carried the load during that stretch, and Hawai'i fans can expect much of the same in 2024. Chang runs a version of the run-and-shoot offense, the same system that he operated during his playing days to the result of 17,072 yards and 117 touchdowns. Leading the offense, which ranked 27th nationally in passing in 2023, is Maxwell Award Watch List quarterback Brayden Schager.
Schager led the Mountain West Conference with 3,542 passing yards. The senior dipped his toes in the Transfer Portal waters, but chose to remain with the 'Bows. Schager will have a deep and talented group of pass catchers to throw to, including his top two producers from a year ago in senior Steven McBride, and sophomore Pofele Ashlock. McBride had 63 receptions, 1,024 yards and 9 touchdowns, and was selected second team All-Mountain West in 2023. Ashlock had 83 receptions for 832 yards and 9 touchdowns as a freshman, and was named to the Biletnikoff Award Watch List going into 2024. Keeping Schager upright will be crucial for the offense's success. The Rainbow Warriors return three starters to an offensive line that gave up 39 sacks in 2023, which ranked 115th nationally.
Hawai'i's defense gave up 32.2 points a game last season, and will have four new starters on the defensive line after ranking 102nd in the nation against the run. There is some optimism around the program, though after the 'Bows made a change at defensive coordinator. Dennis Thurman replaces Jacob Yoro.
Thurman takes over a unit that returns seven starters and nine of their top tackle leaders from 2023. Hawai'i hopes that the talent and experience in the back end will gel with the youth up front, and lend to significant improvement in 2024.
If the 'Bows can protect Schager, and the defense responds well to Thurman's influence, then Hawai'i can push for a bowl game in 2024.
Predicting the Games
Hawai'i plays two FCS games in 2024, but stare down a difficult in-conference stretch after September. Let's get into predicting the games.
Week 0: Delaware State Hornets
The Delaware State Hornets were a late add to Hawai'i's schedule after the Oregon Ducks canceled their trip to the islands. The Hornets make the longest road trip in program history for the matchup with the 'Bows. It will be the first time the two teams have faced off, and only the fifth time a HBCU program has made the trip to play Hawai'i.
The Hornets hope to bounce back after a 1-10 2023. This won't be the game to flip the momentum. This will be a great tune up for the Rainbow Warriors, and the perfect warm up for the new look defense. Expect Hawai'i's passing attack to put up huge numbers with ease as the 'Bows demolish the Hornets.
Record: 1-0
Week 1: UCLA Bruins
This will be the fifth time UCLA and Hawai'i have met, and the second time the teams have played away from the mainland. The Bruins have won the previous four matchups, and won the most recent meeting in 2021, 44-10.
Expect that trend to continue this season. Head coach Chip Kelly stepped down in the offseason, and the Bruins promoted running backs coach DeShaun Foster. UCLA also lost nine starters from the defense, and defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn left for crosstown-rival USC. That's a lot of loss to a defense that ranked 11th nationally in 2023. Despite the drastic changes, expect the Bruins to have it together against Hawai'i.
The Bruin secondary will be a question mark in 2023, and Schager and the 'Bows' passing attack could make it close. But expect the talent disparity to be too much for Hawai'i. The Warriors head into their first bye week after a loss.
Record: 1-1
Week 2: Bye
Week 3: at Sam Houston State Bearkats
This will be the first meeting between the Rainbow Warriors and the Bearkats. Last season was Sam Houston's first season at the FBS level. The Bearkats had been one of the better teams in the FCS, but the success did not translate as they went 3-9 in 2023. The defense struggled in pass rush, and the offense ranked 124th in yards per passing attempt. Those two traits will play into the 'Bows' strengths. Hawai'i will run all over the Bearkats.
Record:2-1
Week 4: Northern Iowa Panthers
The second FCS game on the schedule, this will be the second overall meeting between the Panthers and the Rainbow Warriors. Hawai'i won the previous matchup in 2014, 27-24. Don't expect the game to be that close this year. UNI may make some noise in the FCS, but they only return two starters from a defense that finished in the back half of the Missouri Valley Conference in 2023. Hawai'i should eat.
Record: 3-1
Week 6: at San Diego State Aztecs
The Aztecs of San Diego State and Hawai'i have met 37 times, and every year since 2012 as Mountain West foes. SDSU leads the all-time series 24-11-2, and has won the last nine of 11 games. The last six of eight games were decided by a touchdown or less, including a 41-34 nail biter last year.
The Aztecs were 4-8 in 2023, and head coach Brady Hoke retired after the season. Sean Lewis is in for Hoke. Lewis has a history of strong defenses and doing more with less at his previous stops. Expect the 'Bows to hang around thanks to their potent offense, but the Aztecs come out on top to open Mountain West play.
Record: 3-2
Week 7: Boise State Broncos
Boise State and Hawai'i have played 18 times. The Broncos lead the series 15-3, and won the most recent matchup in 2020, 40-32. Boise State has a lot of returning starters, including the majority of the offensive line, that will be joined by a host of talented transfers. Redshirt sophomore Maddux Madsen beat out former five-star quarterback recruit and USC transfer Malachi Nelson after Taylen Green left for Arkansas. The Boise State offense doesn't expect to take any steps back, and the Broncos are the clear favorite to win the Mountain West.
Hawai'i needs to steal a game during this rough stretch, and Schager and company will do their best to keep it close. But The Broncos are too talented, too experienced and Boise State holds off the Rainbow Warriors.
Record: 3-3
Week 8: at Washington State Cougars
This is the fifth matchup between the Cougars and the Rainbow Warriors. Hawai'i leads the series 3-1, and won the most recent game in 2009, 38-20.
Wazzu lost star safety Jordan Hicks and starting corner Chau Smith-Wade to the NFL. So, secondary is in question for the season. Expect Schager to be able to put pressure on this defense, but it won't be enough. Wazzu controls the line of scrimmage, and the Cougars win the game.
Record: 3-4
Week 9: Nevada Wolf Pack
The 'Bows and Wolf Pack have met 28 times. Nevada leads the series 15-13, but Hawaii has won the last two, including a 27-14 victory in 2023. Nevada heads into a bit of a rebuild as Jeff Choate takes over a program that has gone 2-20 in its last 22 games.
Choate is a good bet to get the Pack headed in the right direction, but it doesn't happen this week. Hawai'i's experience and firepower get the best of Nevada.
Record: 4-4
Week 10: at Fresno State Bulldogs
Fresno State and Hawai'i have met 55 times. The Bulldogs lead the series 30-24-1, and won the most recent meeting 55-13. The Rainbow Warriors' offense should be too explosive against a defense that gave up 30 or more points in six games last year for the score to get that bad, but the end result will be the same.
The Bulldogs are going through a coaching change, but despite the turnover the team should compete for the MWC title. And the experience the team returns to the secondary will disrupt Hawai'i's passing game.
Record: 4-5
Week 11: UNLV Rebels
UNLV and Hawai'i have met in the Ninth Island Showdown 33 times. The 'Bows lead the series 19-14, but don't anticipate that to continue this season. The Rebels return too much talent. As long as they get it right at the quarterback position, expect UNLV to compete for the conference title. Hawai'i should be able to keep it close, but the Rebels outlast the 'Bows.
Record: 4-6
Week 12: at Utah State Aggies
Utah State leads the series with Hawai'i 12-5, and won the last meeting 41-34. Expect a similar outcome this season. The Rainbow Warriors can push the Aggies on defense—who gave up 30 points in eight games last year—and can perhaps keep the score respectable. But Utah State returns too much from an offense that led the MWC in yards per game (439) in 2023 for Hawai'i to keep up with.
Record: 4-7
Week 14: New Mexico Lobos
Hawai'i leads the all-time series with New Mexico 16-11, but dropped the 2023 matchup 42-21. The Lobos enter this game with a revamped offensive line via the Transfer Portal, and hope to control the line of scrimmage. The defense is a question mark, however. And after failing to secure enough wins for a bowl appearance, this is the last chance for a victory for the Rainbow Warriors. Hawai'i will be hungry, and should be able to take advantage of the weak Lobo defense.
Record: 5-7
Hawai'i Overview
Elite offensive production can only carry the team so far, and this schedule is not favorable. The 'Bows have to steal a few games from better opponents if they hope to find themselves in a bowl game this year. But unfortunately as it stands, don't expect over five wins for the Rainbow Warriors.
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