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Predicting the Outcomes of Iowa Hawkeyes Games in 2024

Kirk Ferentz
© Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

The Iowa Hawkeyes are coming off a season where they finished 10-4 and played in both the Big Ten Conference Championship and a New Year's Six Bowl despite having one of the worst offenses in college football.

 

This year, the Hawkeyes lose one of their biggest advantages of the past decade: playing in the Big Ten West division. Now that the Big Ten has eliminated divisions and added four new teams to the conference, Iowa went from only needing a better record than six teams to now 16 teams to make a Big Ten Championship.



Coach Kirk Ferentz made two main changes to help Iowa meet and exceed their goals for the 2024 season.  Gone are offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz and wide receivers coach Kelton Copeland. They were replaced by new OC Tim Lester, who spent last season with the Green Bay Packers as a senior analyst, and  WR coach Jon Budmayr, who was an offensive analyst with Iowa last season.

 


Iowa will look to reach the Big Ten Championship Game in back-to-back years. With many returning starters on defense, Iowa's success this season will, once again, depend on just how good this veteran unit is.  

 

Iowa did luck out when it comes to scheduling in 2024. They don’t play Penn State, Michigan, Oregon or USC. Their most difficult games are a road contest at Ohio State, and a home game against Nebraska. Having avoided most of the favorites in the Big Ten, Iowa could be a dark horse to sneak into College Football Playoff.

 

Week 1: Illinois State Redbirds

This will be Iowa's second all-time matchup against Illinois State. The first game was back in 2015, with the Hawkeyes winning that matchup 31-14. Iowa will look to start the season off right and get an impressive win but will struggle on offense. The defense, led by Phil Parker, will do what they do every year and lead the Hawkeyes to a 17-16 win. 

 

Record: 1-0

 

Week 2: Iowa State Cyclones

This will be the 71st time these two teams meet in the battle for the state of Iowa. The Hawkeyes have been 7-1 against the Cyclones since 2015, and Iowa is 47-23 overall against their in-state rival.

 

This year's game will look a lot like last year's, with both teams not putting up a ton of yards on offense. Iowa QB Cade McNamara will look better than he did in Game 1 and will find ways to move the ball.  The defense will be operating as normal and will carry the team to a 17-7 victory.


Record: 2-0

 


Week 3: Troy Trojans

This will be the first meeting between these two schools, and it won’t go well for Troy. Iowa will find their offense in this game and McNamara will have his best game in an Iowa uniform. On the other side of the ball, the defense will continue to play at a very high level, and the Hawkeyes pull out the 31-0 victory.

 

Record: 3-0

 

Week 4: at Minnesota Golden Gophers

Iowa leaves Iowa City for the first time this season for a road matchup against the Golden Gophers. This will be their 118th meeting against Minnesota, with the Gophers holding the overall record of 63-52-2. That being said, Iowa has won eight out of the last nine meetings, but Minnesota squeaked out a 12-10 win last year in Iowa City.

 


Iowa will bring a better offense and defense on the road to Minneapolis. The Gophers won’t be able to score or stop the Hawkeyes from scoring. McNamara will cement himself as the Iowa starting QB with back-to-back big games, and the defense will hold Minnesota to under 200 yards of total offense. Hawkeyes win, 34-3.   

 

Record: 4-0


Week 5: Bye

 

Week 6: at Ohio State Buckeyes

The Buckeyes have dominated this matchup in the past, having only dropped three of the 19 games in the all-time series. Iowa's last win against Ohio State came in a 55-24 home win back in 2017.

 

There is not much you can say here about how this game goes. Ohio State shows why they are not just the best team in the Big Ten, but the best team in the country. Iowa's defense stands up at first but Ohio State wears them down and puts points up quickly after that. The Iowa offense has no ability to move the ball against the Buckeyes' top ranked defense and drop the game, 45-3.  

 

Record: 4-1

 

Week 7: Washington Huskies

This will be the seventh meeting between the two schools, with the overall series being tied 3-3. The last time these teams faced each other was a 38-18 Iowa win in 1995. Iowa will be looking to try and get back on track in this game after the beatdown at the hands of Ohio State. McNamara has a much better game in this one and Iowa's defense holds Washington's offense at bay and pulls out the 27-17 victory.    


Record: 5-1

 


Week 8: at Michigan State Spartans

Iowa will head on the road for the third time this season when they take on Michigan State in East Lansing, Mich. This will be the 50th meeting between the two schools with Iowa holding a 25-22-2 advantage in the series. In their last six meetings, Iowa is 3-3 and won their last meeting 26-16 in 2023.

 

This is a difficult game to predict before the season starts. Michigan State has a new head coach and will look a lot different than a year ago. The Spartans' winning ability depends on the ability of transfer QB Aiden Chiles to live up to his hype going into the season. While Michigan State is coming out of a bye this week, they play archrival Michigan the following week, so the Spartans risk dropping this game if they look ahead to the Wolverines. Iowa comes into East Lansing and holds Chiles to a poor performance, winning 20-10.


Record: 6-1

 

Week 9: Northwestern Wildcats

Iowa is back on track after two straight wins and now welcomes Northwestern to Kinnick Stadium. This is the 83rd time these two schools will meet with Iowa leading the series, 53-26-3. Their last meeting was a defensive showcase last season in Wrigley Field, with the Hawkeyes winning the game 10-7.



David Braun did a fantastic job getting Northwestern to a bowl game last season after they were picked to finish dead last in the Big Ten, but there is no way Braun will take his Wildcats into Kinnick and walk out with a win. That being said, Iowa seems to have a bad loss every year. Iowa escapes a close one here and keeps their Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff hopes alive, winning 17-13.


Record: 7-1

 

Week 10: Wisconsin Badgers

Iowa and Wisconsin will square off for the 98th time, with Wisconsin holding the series advantage, 49-26-2. But Iowa has won three of the four most recent games.

 

Iowa wins this game, it’s as simple as that. Last season, much like the Northwestern game, the Wisconsin game was a low-scoring affair as Iowa won 15-6. This year, the Hawkeye offense actually looks coherent and puts up some points in a 24-10 victory. With the loss, Wisconsin fans question if Luke Fickell is the right guy to lead the program.


Record: 8-1

 

Iowa football
© Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel/USA TODAY NETWORK

Week 11: at UCLA Bruins

Iowa heads to the Rose Bowl in a regular season contest for the first time. This will be their 10th meeting all time against UCLA, with the Hawkeyes going 2-7 all-time against the Bruins. Their last meeting was a 1986 Rose Bowl clash where UCLA beat up the Hawkeyes 45-28.

 

UCLA might own the series, but the Bruins are not ready for what Iowa's defense will bring. The Big Ten doesn’t play two-hand touch like the Pac-12 Conference did on defense, and the newest members of the Big Ten will find that out fast. Iowa's defense comes into Pasadena, Calif., and shows why they are one of the best defenses in the country and leads Iowa to the win, 17-7.


Record: 9-1



Week 12: Bye 


Week 13: at Maryland Terrapins

With just two games left, Iowa can now see the road to reach their second consecutive Big Ten Championship Game. There are only two teams remaining in their pathMaryland and Nebraskaand now they head to College Park, Md., to see if they can take down the Terps. This will be the fifth meeting between the two teams, with Iowa leading the series 3-1 having won the last three games. Their last meeting was in 2021, with Iowa winning 51-14.

 

Iowa heads to play a much different Maryland team with Taulia Tagovailoa now gone. Like Michigan State, predicting this game three months ahead of time is incredibly difficult as we don't know who the Terrapins' quarterback will be. But regardless of who it is, as long as Iowa's defense is still healthy, the Hawkeyes should win this game. Maryland will also be counting on their defense to carry them. The Hawkeye offense puts up enough points in this one to secure the 14-6 victory.


Record: 10-1

 

Week 14: Nebraska Cornhuskers

Iowa now find themselves contending for both a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game and also their first appearance in the CFP. Iowa's last speed bump is a home game against Nebraska. The Hawkeyes have won eight of the past nine games against the Cornhuskers, but Nebraska leads the series 30-21-3.

 

Nebraska plays spoiler on Senior Day in this one. Iowa's defense plays well but Nebraska has cleaned up their turnover problem thanks to the play of freshman QB Dylan Raiola and puts up enough points to win the game. Last season five of Nebraska's losses were by one scorethis season they find a way to win these games, and the Hawkeyes drop the game, 20-16.


Record: 10-2

 

Iowa Hawkeyes Season Overview

Iowa going 10-2 overall and 7-2 in Big Ten play makes for a successful season for the Hawkeyes. A year ago that record would have put them in the Big Ten Championship Game, but with divisions gone, they miss out, with 11-1 Ohio State and Oregon playing a rematch from Oct. 12. Iowa will be left to wait and see if they are playing in a bowl game or the CFP thanks to one other team from the Big Ten having the same record. Will the CFP selection committee put four Big Ten teams in or will one end up just outside the bracket?   



 

1 Comment


Mike Germanese With the Fire article. Can't say I am suprised.

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