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Things haven’t gone well for Virginia since Bronco Mendenhall stepped down as head coach in 2021. Tony Elliott has seen some rough times in his first two years in Charlottesville, Va. Will 2024 see different results in the win-loss column? Probably not.
The offense was ranked 76th last season and third-year offensive coordinator Desmond Kitchings will be working with fifth-year quarterback Tony Muskett. Muskett saw action in six games last season and even led Virginia to an upset win over 10th-ranked North Carolina. So the offense can go out and make plays but whether they can do it consistently is the question. Four of the five returning offensive linemen will be on the field for Muskett. However, what will be most beneficial for the offense will be not turning over the football something that the Cavaliers did routinely holding a minus-6 turnover margin.
Defensively, Virginia was giving up yards at an alarming rate for a team playing big-time college football, as they allowed an average of 409 yards per game. With five returning starters Cavaliers fans hope they will make an impact in John Rudzinski’s defense.
Week 1: Richmond Spiders
Last year, Virginia struggled to beat Richmond’s fellow FCS team, William & Mary, their first win of the season. That game could have been labeled as a “trap game” with the Cavaliers heading to play 10th-ranked UNC in Chapel Hill, N.C.—a game that Virginia beat UNC. This year Virginia opens the season against their FCS team.
Record: 1-0
Week 2: at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Virginia doesn’t have the luxury of playing Wake Forest in Charlottesville. Going up against Wake Forest in Winston-Salem, N.C., will be challenging but it should be a close game. Virginia struggled on defense last season and Wake Forest struggled offensively. However, both teams should improve in those categories.
Wake Forest has better experience up front both on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. In Elliott’s first two seasons, he hasn’t faired too well in close games and we don’t see that changing in Week 2.
Record: 1-1
Week 3: Maryland Terrapins
Maryland is Virginia’s toughest out-of-conference opponent. Maryland was ranked 30th defensively last season and is returning six starters on defense. It's doubtful Maryland will struggle too much to stop Virginia but with it being a home game for the Cavaliers it could be a close game to start, but Maryland should cruise come the second half.
Record: 1-2
Week 4: at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Virginia rounds out its out-of-conference play against Coastal and even though the Chanticleers lost a lot of their starters on offense, they have enough defensively to make this a close game throughout. Despite the crowd in Conway, S.C., that will be making their presence felt this should be a game that Virginia wins, albeit a close one.
Record: 2-2
Week 5: Bye
Week 6: Boston College Eagles
Following a bye week Virginia should be well rested to host the Eagles. Boston College should be a better team than most expect this season, however, on this day it's going to be Virginia to hold the upper hand against Boston College. Sometimes there are no numbers that can back up the reason for Virginia to pull off the win at home.
Record: 3-2
Week 7: Louisville Cardinals
This is the first of a rough three-game stretch for Virginia. Louisville could be a dangerous team in the Atlantic Coastal Conference this season and should overmatch Virginia.
Last year it was a close win for Louisville 31-24 in Charlottesville. Unless Virginia can pull off some key turnovers and take it to the Cards early on in the game it could get ugly for Virginia.
Record: 3-3
Week 8: at Clemson Tigers
Clemson will be strong defensively this year and in what could be the most lopsided loss this year for Virginia. It's too bad for Virginia since they’ll be tested throughout these games against teams that will out-physical them.
Record: 3-4
Week 9: North Carolina Tar Heels
After last year’s upset win by Virginia, UNC should come out looking for a fight early against the Cavaliers. It's going to be one of those “revenge games” where the team that was humiliated the year before wants to come out and embarrass their opponent and UNC might be successful. This ends that tough three-game stretch for Virginia.
Record: 3-5
Week 10: at Pitt Panthers
It won’t be easy but it's possible Virginia can pull off their first road win of the season against Pitt. The Panthers will be coming off what could be a loss against the SMU Mustangs in Dallas. Facing Virginia might be a game that Pitt takes lightly. Elliott should have his team motivated for this game and for Elliott, how he finishes the season could be the deciding factor in whether he’s the man of the future for Virginia.
Record: 4-5
Week 11: at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Unless Virginia catches Notre Dame unprepared—which could happen—Virginia will get blown out on the road, but hopefully won’t lead to Virginia losing confidence in themselves if they do lose by a wide margin.
The final two games could be pivotal toward the team making a bowl game for the first time since 2021 in the Fenway Bowl but this time they’d play in the game.
Record: 4-6
Week 12: SMU Mustangs
One of the final two games this season for Virginia. More importantly, it’s Senior Day as well and Virginia will be more motivated than ever to win this game. Coming off a possible loss to Boston College the week before this could be another opportunity for an upset when they travel to Charlottesville. This win could be the reason why Elliott keeps his job if everything goes as planned.
Record: 5-6
Week 13: at Virginia Tech Hokies
The Commonwealth Cup has been won by Virginia Tech 21 out of their last 23 meetings since 1999. Virginia last beat Virginia Tech back in 2019 by a final score of 23-19. Last year Virginia Tech won by a final score of 55-17.
The Hokies will be going for their fourth straight win against the Cavaliers and should be successful. Unfortunately for Virginia, this could mean they won’t make a bowl game. Unless there is that rare occurrence where a 5-win team makes a bowl game.
Record: 5-7
Virginia Overview
If the Virginia season goes as predicted it will mark the third consecutive losing season under Elliott. Could the potential of two upset wins be enough for him to keep his job in 2025?
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