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With Notre Dame and Ohio State set to clash for the College Football Playoff National Championship on Jan. 20, shifting from a four-team to a 12-team format has been an undeniable success. The expanded CFP delivered fans home playoff games, gave eight more fan bases a reason to dream of a championship and allowed teams with more than one loss a shot at the field.
What if this season stuck with the old four-team setup? Or what if it used the eventual 14- or 16-team format college football seems destined for? Grab a beer, pull up a barstool and dive into the endless "what ifs" that make being a sports fan so much fun!
The Future of the College Football Playoff
The CFP debuted in 2014 with Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Ohio State representing the inaugural four-team format. The Buckeyes, led by coach Urban Meyer, claimed the first National Championship with a commanding 42-20 victory over Oregon in the title game. On a side note—as a Badgers fan—I can’t help but think Wisconsin deserves some "credit" for taking one for the conference, suffering a humbling 59-0 loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Big Ten didn’t celebrate another national title until the 2023 season as the SEC claimed six of the next eight championships. Clemson briefly disrupted the SEC’s dominance, capturing two titles during that stretch.
On Sept. 2, 2022, the CFP Board of Managers voted to move to a 12-team playoff starting with the 2026 season unless "earlier implementation is available." As we now know, the new format was shifted to start with the 2024 season and will be revisited after the 2025 season.
On Jan. 13, 2025, The Dan Patrick Show reported the CFP is likely to go to 14 teams for the 2026 season and 16 teams starting with the 2032 season.
Four-Team CFP Bracket
The final four teams might have looked dramatically different under the old four-team CFP bracket. Based on the final Week 15 CFP rankings, the top four rated teams were:
Oregon
Georgia
Texas
Penn State
Only one of those teams, Texas, reached the 2024 semifinals. The first two teams out—Notre Dame at No. 5 and Ohio State at No. 6—are coincidentally the teams now playing for the 2024 National Championship.
How would the four-team format have played out this year? First off, it’s hard to envision Penn State being ranked ahead of Notre Dame whether you think that is fair or not. Assuming the Fighting Irish take the fourth and final seed, they’d face Oregon in the first semifinal. Behind quarterback Dillon Gabriel’s dual-threat abilities, the Ducks edge Notre Dame 31-27. On the other side of the bracket, Texas finally gets the better of Georgia in their third matchup, capitalizing on the Bulldogs being without their starting QB.
Oddsmakers gave Texas a slight edge in the championship game, but quarterback Quinn Ewers made a costly turnover late in the fourth quarter. Oregon capitalized, turning the mistake into a last-second touchdown to secure a thrilling 34-30 victory and their first-ever national championship.
16-Team CFP Bracket
Let’s start with a couple of assumptions used to build this bracket and project the results:
The top 16 teams qualify for the playoff, seeded based on the final CFP rankings released after Week 15, regardless of whether they are a Power Four, Group of 5 or conference champion.
The first two rounds are played at the lower seed's home field.
The SEC is the big winner of the increased bracket, placing three additional representatives—Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina—into the tournament. As for Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin, one has to wonder: what does he complain about on social media now? Miami, led by Heisman Trophy finalist quarterback Cam Ward, joins as the lone non-SEC team to round out the group.
In the first round, home-field advantage is lacking as road teams go 4-4, including upsets by three double-digit seeds: Miami, Ole Miss and South Carolina. The second round sees home teams hold their ground, with one exception—a thrilling 51-48 victory by the Miami Hurricanes over Notre Dame in South Bend, Ind. Miami’s miracle run continues as they prevent an all-Big Ten championship game by edging Oregon 38-34 in another classic game. However, the Cinderella story ends in the title game as the Buckeyes dominate the Hurricanes with a 41-20 victory, securing the school’s ninth national championship.
More Contenders, More Chaos
Despite concerns from naysayers, the 12-team CFP has been a resounding success for fans. With continued parity driven by the transfer portal and NIL, expanding the CFP will increase the likelihood of more upsets and unforgettable games. The FCS playoffs operated successfully with 16 teams from 1986 to 2009, proving this model is sustainable at the college level. The FCS playoffs eventually expanded to 20 teams in 2010 and 24 in 2013. Let’s embrace the beautiful chaos of a 16-team CFP but draw the line there—because if we wanted brackets that big, we’d watch March Madness.
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