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Welcome to "The Conclusion." Where each week I will go over my final player pool for DraftKings Daily Fantasy main slate. This is not a list of all the good players. This is a list of players that will make my final player pool. We can’t play everyone.
My contest selection for the main slate will generally be single or three-max entry tournaments with less than 1,000 entries. I’ll usually do three lineups each week.
Week 1 of the NFL season is always a unique week. Salaries have been out for six weeks or so. There is a lot of value out there. The season is wide open and we don’t really know anything yet.
Let’s see if we can navigate this wide open slate and find a lineup that creeps toward the top.
Stack No. 1: Buffalo Bills
The Bills will open their season at home against the Arizona Cardinals at 1 p.m. EST. Arizona was a defense we wanted to attack last season and I’m not sure much will change with that angle this season.
I’ll be using Josh Allen (8.0k) paired with Dalton Kincaid (5.8k) in a single stack. James Cook (6.9k) and Khalil Shakir (5.1k) are also fine options. I’d rather use Cook in a non-Allen lineup. Shakir can be added to the Allen/Kincaid stack, or he can replace Kincaid to save some salary. Either way, I will want pieces of the Bills. The Bills have the highest-implied team total on the slate and are playing a defense we routinely attacked last year.
I don’t know if I will bring back my Allen/Kincaid stack with a Cardinal or not. If I was to add Shakir to the stack, I’d be looking at adding one for sure. But I may keep the Bills stack to a single. Trey McBride (6.1k) would probably be my favorite player from the Cardinals with James Conner (6.2k) coming in second. I don’t like the salary for Marvin Harrison Jr. There are other players in the price range I’d rather have. Greg Dortch and Michael Wilson feel thin for smaller field contests. I might look to try and pair McBride in the lineup I use Cook in for a mini stack.
Stack No. 2: Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings will travel to New York to face the Giants for a 1 p.m. EST kickoff to start their season. The total in this game is only 41.5 but we have what should be a condensed target share from both teams.
There is nothing sexy about stacking Sam Darnold (5.2k) but we know coach Kevin O’Connell will pass regardless of who his quarterback is in Minnesota. Last year, despite having to start four different quarterbacks, the Vikings were sixth in the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE). I’m expecting the same this season.
The recipient of all those passes will be Justin Jefferson (8.4k). I don’t need to tell you how good Jefferson is. He is expected to soak up a large number of targets and I’ll pair him with Darnold. I’m more than likely to use Aaron Jones (6.5k) as a one-off in lineups not including Darnold, but with his pass catching abilities he is a viable player to add to Darnold/Jefferson stacks. Jordan Addison (5.3k) is another stacking option. I don’t think I’ll get to Addison myself. The player for Minnesota I’m most interested in pairing with my Darnold/Jefferson stacks is Johnny Mundt (2.9k). This is a salary saving punt play at TE. Despite a new defensive coordinator, we still have questions about the Giants' defense. Mundt played the majority of the snaps in the preseason with the starters and in Weeks 17 and 18 of last year he had 13.9 and 10.8 fantasy points, respectively. Stacking Darnold/Jefferson/Mundt together will be very low owned and a great way to differentiate your lineups.
On the Giants side. I’ll be using Malik Nabers (5.9k) in multiple lineups, including as a bring back in the Vikings stack. Nabers is simply too cheap for his likely role and I don’t expect we’ll see this low salary attached to him long. The only other option for New York I’d consider is Devin Singletary (5.7k). There is nothing special about Singletary this week, but he could realistically soak up 80 percent of the running back touches. We know volume is king for RBs.
Parlay for the People
Sam Darnold Over 227.5 pass yards + Justin Jefferson Over 81.5 receiving yards + Malik Nabers Over 59.5 receiving yards. (+385) Risk 0.50 units to win 1.92.
Stack No. 3: Washington Commanders
Rookie Jayden Daniels (5.7k) and the Washington Commanders will start their season on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 4:25 p.m. EST.
One thing we know about a Todd Bowles-led defense is they will blitz and when that blitz doesn’t get home, it leaves lanes open for athletic quarterbacks to take off running. Daniels at $5,700 is just too cheap for the ceiling he offers with his rushing ability. We also know offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury wants to go fast allowing the number of plays to rack up.
The only pass catcher I’m interested in pairing Daniels with is Terry McLaurin (5.6k). There are a lot of unknowns with the rest of the receiving core in Washington, but we do know that McLaurin is the clear-cut WR1, and he should easily lead the team in targets. In larger field contests, if you wanted to take a shot at one of the TE’s or ancillary WR’s, I get it. But for my smaller field contest, it’s a Daniels/McLaurin stack.
On the Tampa Bay side there are a few options we can get to. My preferred bring back is Mike Evans (7.3k). Dan Quinn called a lot of man defense while as the defensive coordinator in Dallas, and if that continues in Washington, then Evans will have a real shot to feast this game. Other options on the Tampa Bay side include Rachaad White (6.3k) and Chris Godwin (5.8k).
Game Target No. 1: Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins
The Jacksonville Jaguars will square off with the Miami Dolphins at 1 p.m. EST in Miami. Although I won’t be fully stacking the game, it does have the highest total on the slate, and I will want pieces of this game. I will be sure that at least one of my three lineups will include players from this game.
For the Jaguars, the top two plays are likely Christian Kirk (5.5k) and Evan Engram (5.5k). Both are viable options, but both will be the highest owned Jaguars this week. Kirk is currently checking in at 15.7 percent and Engram at 17 percent. Travis Etienne (7.2k) is always an option, but he’s too expensive for me on this slate. I want to get a little contrarian with the Jags. To save some salary I want to look at Gabe Davis (4.5k) and Brian Thomas Jr. (4.7k). Both are super cheap, and both are coming in very low owned. Davis and Thomas are boom or bust plays, but it doesn’t take much to get there and in a high-scoring game I don’t mind taking a shot. I’m likely to roster Davis. Per Rich Hribar of Sharp Football, Gabe Davis ran a route on 100 percent of Trevor Lawrence's preseason drop backs.
The thing we love about Miami head coach Mike McDaniels is he gives the ball to his best players. Those players are De’Von Achane (6.8k), Raheem Mostert (6.4k), Tyreek Hill (8.7k) and Jaylen Waddle (6.3k). Anything outside of those four players is left for larger field contests. I’ll roster any of the four, but the two I’ll likely focus on getting into a lineup or two will be Achane and Hill. They have the most upside.
Game Target No. 2: Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
The Houston Texans take on the Indianapolis Colts at 1 p.m. EST. Another game I’m not full-out stacking, but one I’ll want pieces of. This game supports the second-highest total at 48.5
For Houston, my focus will be trying to get one of the three WRs. Nico Collins (7.0k) is my favorite, followed by Tank Dell (5.5k) and then Stefon Diggs (6.7K). Some might want to get to Joe Mixon (6.6k) or Dalton Schultz (4.9k), but I’ll be focused on the WR’s.
Adonai Mitchell (3.8k) will start in the slot with Josh Downs out and he is on of the more intriguing options for the Colts. He offers a cheap low-owned option in this game and makes for a nice mini stack piece with one of the Houston WR’s. Jonathan Taylor (7.8k) and Michael Pittman Jr. (6.8k) are other options. But they seem a tad pricey for my roster construction this week. But I’ll keep them in my player pool just in case.
One-offs
The following list of players will be the players I fill out the rest of lineups with. Whether it be as a mini stack or a one-off. I won’t be able to use everyone, but I will consider all when building.
RB: Bijan Robinson (7.7k)
RB: Kenneth Walker (6.1k)
RB: Jaleel McLaughlin (4.3k)
RB: Chuba Hubbard (5.3k)
RB: Tony Pollard (5.9k)
WR: DJ Moore (6.5k)
WR: Drake London (6.0k)
WR: Rome Odunze (4.0k)—Only if Keenan Allen is Out.
WR: Diontae Johnson (5.3k)
WR: Andrei Iosivas (3.0K)—Warning, he will be very popular, and he frees up a bunch of salary. I suspect he’ll be paired with Tyreek Hill a lot. If you use him, consider not using Hill in that lineup.
WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (4.9k)—One of my favorite plays of the week. I’ve been drafting Smith-Njigba all offseason in best ball and redraft leagues. I’m going out of my way to make sure he’s in a lineup or two.
WR: Josh Palmer (5.2k)
WR: Lad McConkey (4.7k)
TE: Ja’Tavion Sanders (2.5k)—Punt play. He is site minimum and he’ll be on the field a bunch.
TE: Noah Fant (4.0k)
TE: Kyle Pitts (4.6k)
This is a wide-open week. Be careful of getting too chalky in your lineups. Week 1 chalk can be questionable, as we really don’t know anything yet. See Isiah Likely on Thursday.
That will be it for the week one player pool. Should anything change and I add anyone to the player pool, I’ll be sure to update that on Twitter/X. You can follow me Twitter/X here. Good luck this weekend and we’ll see you at the top of the leader boards.
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