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Welcome to the Conclusion. Where each week I will go over my final player pool for DraftKings main slate. This is not a list of all the good players. This is a list of players that will make my final player pool. We can’t play everyone.
Week 4 is going to be an interesting week. It starts with the Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals. In small field contest, Jayden Daniels and Kyler Murray are expected to combine for more than 40 percent ownership. No other quarterback is projected over 10 percent. Normally ownership on quarterbacks is flat and not something we focus on. How we play this game, will likely determine how the week goes.
My contest selection for the main slate will generally be single- or three-max entry tournaments with less than 1,000 entries. I’ll usually do three lineups each week. This week I’ll be in single-entry small field entries.
Stack No. 1: Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers
The Cincinnati Bengals will go on the road to play the Carolina Panthers at 1 p.m. EST on Sept 29. The total for this game sits at 47.5, the second highest total on the slate behind the Washington vs. Arizona game.
Joe Burrow (6.6k) and Andy Dalton (5.3k) are both in play. I’m going to side with Dalton to start my stack. Both are pocket passers, and we don’t expect either to accumulate many points with their legs, so I’ll play the cheaper pocket passer. The Bengals are 26th in pass defense DVOA.
Diontae Johnson (5.6k) is expected to be the most popular player of the slate. He is just to cheap for his projected role and matchup. Per Rich Hribar of Sharp Football, the Bengals are 28th in allowed catch rate, 29th in allowed yards per target and 24th in allowed touchdown rate to outside wide receivers. Johnson has run 78.8 percent of his routes on the outside. I’ll start my stack with Dalton and Johnson and branch out from there.
All of Chuba Hubbard (5.7k), Xavier Legette (4.8k) and Tommy Tremble (2.7k) are in play for Carolina. Jonathon Mingo (3.3k) can certainly be used, but I’m more likely to get to the other three mentioned before Mingo. I’m going to play around with different variations of Carolina players to find my favorite stacking partners.
The Bengals are going to be relatively low owned. I like Zack Moss (5.9k) and I think Tee Higgins (5.9k) is a sneaky low-owned play. Higgins ran a route on 95.1 percent of the drop backs last week and had 6 targets. Higgins only scored 6.9 fantasy points but had an expected score of 14.9. Ja’Marr Chase (7.7k) and Mike Gesicki (3.5K) will absolutely make my player pool. Just like on the Carolina side, I’ll make multiple variations of this stack and find the one I like best. The Bengals lead the league in PROE at 6.1 percent.
Stack No. 2: Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears will play host to the Los Angeles Rams at 1 p.m. EST on Sept 29. This game has one of the lower totals on the week at 40.5, which can be worrisome when stacking the game.
Stacking this game does take a leap of faith. Something must give. The Rams have been horrible on the defensive side and a team we’ve wanted to attack early in the season. The Bears have been just as bad on offense to start the year.
The Bears haven’t been able to run the ball all year long and this backfield is a mess right now. The matchup is great, but so was last weeks. Until we see some consistency from this Bears back field, I’ll be staying away. My hope is the Bears lean into their No. 1 pick Caleb Williams (5.6k). Now, asking the Bears coaching staff to do the smart thing is a tough ask, but it would make sense. I don’t expect Williams to drop back another 52 times, but Williams has shown improvements each game and put a respectable fantasy score last week against the Indianapolis Colts. The Rams, defensively, rank toward the bottom in every relevant passing category.
If Keenan Allen returns, that will make stacking the Bears a little more difficult. I have no interest in Allen coming off injury. I want to see him play a full game again before considering him. I will be starting my Williams stacks with D.J. Moore (6.7k). A big game from Moore is coming. He is sixth in starting wide receiver positive regression metrics per Fantasy Points expected points feature. If Allen does sit, I’ll have interest in Rome Odunze (5.2k) and Cole Kmet (4.4k).
For the Rams, my only real interest is in Kyren Williams (7.3k). If I was to use a wide receiver from this game, it would likely be Tutu Atwell (4.8k). Williams is a workhorse back who had handled 54 or 66 running back carries for the Rams and has run a route on 67 percent of the teams drop backs. The Bears defense is 25th in rushing DVOA and has allowed 4.5 yards per carry.
You don’t have to use a Ram if you don’t want to. A single stack with Williams and one of his pass catchers is perfectly ok.
Stack No. 3: Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts
The Pittsburgh Steelers will go on the road to play the Colts at 1 p.m. EST on Sept 29. This game has a very low total of 40.
I am not full stacking this game and I don’t believe you should either. This is about potential play volume and matchup. Per Rich Hribar of Sharp Football, every team that has played the Colts this season left the game with the highest number of plays ran. And we know volume can be key for fantasy points. The Colts run a league low 50 plays per game while allowing a league worst 75.7 plays per game.
Things will start with Justin Fields (5.5k) for me. Fields is not the type of quarterback I will typically double stack with, so I will likely keep it to just one other Steeler. George Pickens (5.7k) is firmly in play while tight end Pat Freiermuth (3.9k) can be used too. I lean Pickens simply for the upside, but Freiermuth is completely fine if needing to fill the tight end position and you want to save some money.
Najee Harris (5.6k) is in play as well. You can use him with Fields rosters and just try to capture all the rushing upside from the steelers. Or you can use Harris as a one-off in another lineup. I lean toward using Harris as a one-off over stacking him with Fields. Harris will likely be the most popular running back on the slate.
I will not be using any Colts players. This is a Steelers mini stack that is cheap and should have tons of plays ran.
Game Target No. 1: Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals
The Washington Commanders head west to take on the Arizona Cardinals at 4:05 p.m. EST on Sept 29. This game supports the highest total on the slate at 49.
Let’s get the obvious out of the way. Not stacking this game is risky and if it does go off, you’ll likely be buried. It’s not that I don’t like this game, I do. I want pieces of it. But in the small field contest I play in, Murray and Daniels are expected to each be rostered more than 20 percent. That’s more than 40 percent of rosters built around one game. The chance this game doesn’t quite get there is higher than what the ownership on these quarterbacks would suggest. There is a very real chance this is a good game that produces fantasy points and both quarterbacks walk away with 17-20 points. We won’t be buried if they get into the 20-point range. We just hope they don’t start to get into the 25- or even worse 30-point range.
I will be using both starting running backs, James Conner (6.5k) and Brian Robinson (6.1k). Austin Ekeler is out this week, and we are expecting Robinson to potentially get 20-plus touches this week and be involved in the passing game. The Cardinals have not been able to stop the run this season. The Commanders defense has been even worse against running backs making Conner a solid play this week with modest ownership.
I’m not too interested in any Commander pass catchers. If I was stacking this game, I certainly would. Noah Brown (3.8k) might be too thin for small field, but his playing time has increased each week. If you are stacking Washington, Zach Ertz and Terry McLaurin are options, but I don’t see myself getting to either this week. I am interested in some of the Cardinals pass catchers. Marvin Harrison Jr (7.5k) tops the list. We have attacked Washington's secondary last year, and that trend continues this season. Trey McBride will miss this game and that puts Elijah Higgins (3.1k) in play. Higgins has 4 catches on 4 targets for 41 yards and 1 touchdown on the season. Higgins will come with some ownership. Ancillary pieces in Greg Dortch (4.3k) and Michael Wilson (4.2k) are also decent spend-down options. Both will be decently owned.
I prefer both running backs and Marvin Harrison Jr. But if I need to save some salary in a lineup, I have no issue looking at the cheaper options in this game.
One-Offs:
The following list of players will be the players I fill out the rest of lineups with. Whether it be as a mini stack or a one-off. I won’t be able to use everyone, but I will consider all when building lineups.
RB: Saquon Barkley (8.0k): A.J Brown and DeVonta Smith are set to miss this game. Barkley has been the best fantasy running back so far this season. His ownership is being kept in check due to his salary. If I can get to his price, I will certainly be rostering him.
RB: Aaron Jones (6.4k): Jones is one of my favorite plays this week. So far, the Green Bay Packers defense has improved from last season but they are still allowing 4.7 yards per carry ranking 26th in the league. Jones has been solid to start the year. I love the mini stack of Jones and Jayden Reed for the Packers.
RB: Cam Akers (5.3k): Joe Mixon is questionable. If Mixon plays, Akers is no longer in play. The Jacksonivlle Jaguars have been decent against the run this year. Akers is cheap and a home favorite. I don’t know if I’ll get here, but Akers will make my pool as a salary saver if Mixon sits again.
WR: Rashee Rice (7.3k): Rice will likely make my player pool every week that he’s on the main slate. He’s the No. 1 option for the best quarterback in the league. If you can afford Rice, he’s a solid option.
WR: Mike Evans (7.0k): Evans is a solid leverage play. Huge upside in what should be a good game environment and will be virtually unowned.
WR: Nico Collins (7.2k): Collins will be someone I go out of my way to roster in at least one of my lineups. This a great spot for Collins against a Jaguar defense that been bad against outside wide receivers where Collins has ran a route 84.4 percent of his routes.
WR: Chris Godwin (6.8k): Godwin has been fantastic in his “Cooper Kupp” role. This is another good matchup for him. He’ll come with more ownership than Evans will, but his matchup is better.
WR: Stefon Diggs (6.6k): With Tank Dell ruled out this week. The target share for the Houston Texans could really condense to two players, Diggs and Collins. Diggs is certainly in play this weekend
WR: Jayden Reed (6.0k): I mentioned Reed earlier in the Jones section. I will have that mini stack of Jones and Reed in at least one lineup. The Minnesota Vikings have been solid on defense this year. Reed has a team high target share vs. zone coverage this year. The Viking run zone at the 10th highest rate this year at 73.8 percent. In fact, if you’re playing large field stuff or entering 10 or more lineups this weekend, this is a sneaky game to have a stack of.
WR: Brandon Aiyuk (6.4k): Aiyuk is in play once again. I don’t think I get here. I like some other guys around his price a little better. He did have 10 targets last week despite being out done by Jauan Jennings. All the San Francisco 49ers are in play this week. Jordan Mason, George Kittle and Jennings (assuming Debo Samuel is out). I just don’t think I’ll be getting here this week.
WR: Brian Thomas Jr. (5.4k)/Christian Kirk (5.2k): Both Thomas and Kirk are in play this week. Either of these guys would make good mini stack partners with one of the Texans players. The matchup is decent, and both will come with low ownership.
WR: Trey Tucker (3.6k): Davante Adams is set to miss this week’s game, opening up 23.4 precent of the teams targets. We don’t expect Tucker to consume all of those, but we do expect him to be more involved. The matchup isn’t good, but he is cheap and will be on the field a lot. He had a 22.5 percent target share last week with a 12.6 aDOT (average depth of target). He will come with some ownership but is a solid value play and a way to save some money. We could see Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers more involved this week. There is some risk baked in here.
WR: Darnell Mooney (4.4k): Mooney is just too cheap in my opinion. He is second on the team in target share at 20.2 percent. He leads the team in air yards and yards. Nothing about the matchup scares me away. Mooney is fine one-off for a cheap price.
TE: Dallas Goedert (5.1k): Goedert will be the highest rostered tight end this week. In small field, he will likely exceed 25 percent. Brown and Smith are out this week. Goedert had a 28.9 percent target share last week and that’s with Smith playing most of the game.
TE: Brock Bowers (5.6k): With Adams set to miss the game, we could see Bowers usage climb back to what we saw the first two games. It’s not the best matchup, but he’ll come with reduced ownership compared to Goedert.
TE: Brenton Strange (3.1k): It’s not the best matchup for Strange, but he is cheap and he has scored 9-plus fantasy points the last two weeks in replace of Evan Engram. And with the way tight ends have been this year, 9 fantasy points at a cheap salary might be enough.
That will be it for this week's player pool. Should anything change and I add anyone to the player pool, I’ll be sure to update that on X. You can follow me Twitter/X here. If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to reach out. Good luck this weekend and we’ll see you at the top of the leader board.
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