The Conclusion: DraftKings DFS Core, GPP Plays

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Welcome to The Conclusion, where each week I will go over my final player pool for DraftKings' main slate. This is not a list of all the good players. This is a list of players that will make my final player pool. We can’t play everyone.

Week 5 was a good week, not a great week. We nailed the stacks but unfortunately faded some afternoon chalk that came through. Tucker Kraft and the Broncos' defense hitting is what hurt the most and prevented my lineups from finishing in the top 10 percent. Hopefully, you were able to construct your rosters better than I did.

My contest selection for the main slate will generally be single or three max entry tournaments with less than 1,000 entries. I’ll usually do three lineups each week. This week, I’ll be in single-entry small field entries.

Stack No. 1: Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens

The red-hot Washington Commanders will make the short trip to Baltimore to take on the Baltimore Ravens at 1:00 p.m. EST on Oct 13. The game total for this game is 52, which is the second highest on the slate.

I will be building all three of my lineups around this game. It’s not often I go “all in” on a game, but it is something I’m willing to do this week. If you make a few lineups as I do and you don’t want to go all in for this game, the game targets below will make for fine stacks. If you are making 10-plus lineups, you should certainly diversify your stacks.

My plan is to use Lamar Jackson (7.8k) in two of my lineups and Jayden Daniels (7.3k) in my remaining lineup. Jackson has been the most consistent quarterback this season. He has DraftKings scores of 37.42, 24.64, 25.98, 17.38, 29.12 on the year. He will now face a Commanders defense that ranks 27th in EPA per play and they are equally as bad in the rush and pass. Even in games that Derrick Henry went off, Jackson had 24.64 and 25.98 fantasy points. Daniels has only attempted 30 or more pass attempts one time this season, but we could add to that total this week. The Ravens' defense has the third-best rush EPA in the league, while their pass defense ranks 25th. If the Ravens can shut down the Commanders' run game, we will likely see Daniels have to do more with his arm and legs.

Derrick Henry (8.0k) will be a staple piece for me this week. The Commanders rank 27th in rush EPA and Henry leads the league in rushing yards through five weeks and is second in yards per carry for running backs with 50 or more attempts at 6.11. Henry can be played in the same lineup as Jackson. I’ll pass on any Commanders running backs this week.

Terry McLaurin (6.4k) is the main pass catcher for the Commanders I’ll be looking at while Zach Ertz (3.7k) is another option. Noah Brown (3.9k) was playing as the WR2 for the commanders before missing last week. He is slated to play this week. I prefer McLaurin and Ertz. The Ravens allow 24.7 points per game to outside wide receivers where McLaurin has played on 81.2 percent of his routes ran. They also allow 14.0 points per game to tight ends.

Zay Flowers (6.5k) and Rashod Bateman (4.1k) are the two pass catchers for Baltimore that I’m most likely to use. If you want to use one of the tight ends, feel free to but good luck guessing which one to use. Last week, three different tight ends for Baltimore had 3 or more targets while two of them had a touchdown. The Commanders are allowing 40.6 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, good for fifth most in the league.

Game Target No. 1: Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

The Detroit Lions will take on the Dallas Cowboys at 4:25 p.m. EST on Oct 13. The highest game total on the slate belongs to this game at 52.5.

If you want to fully stack this game, I don’t blame you. I certainly considered it. If I were to full stack it, I’d start on the Dallas side with Dak Prescott.

For Detroit, I’ll be focusing on the running backs, Jahmry Gibbs (7.0k) and David Montgomery (6.5k). The Cowboys are ranked 32nd in rush EPA at 0.103. The Lions, who we know want to play physically and run the ball have the third-best run game in the NFL with a rush EPA of 0.093. The Cowboys are allowing 25.9 fantasy points per game to running backs. Amon-Ra St. Brown (8.1k), Jameson Willams (5.8k), and Sam LaPorta (5.5k) are all in play as well. There is nothing fantastic about any of their matchups, but there is nothing to shy away from the matchup either.

On the Dallas side, it starts and ends with the passing game. Dallas hasn’t been able to run the ball all season and Detroit is very stout vs. the run. It does appear that Rico Dowdle may be becoming the clear RB1 in Dallas, so if you wanted to take a shot on him you can. I’ll put my focus on CeeDee Lamb (8.6k), Jalen Tolbert (5.0k), and Jake Ferguson (5.0k). You can use KaVontae Turpin (3.8k) if you are looking to punt a play. I doubt I get to Turbin. If I’m paying down that low at wide receiver, I’m likely to look a different direction. Detroit is allowing a league-high 23.2 fantasy points per game to slot wide receivers. Last week we saw Ferguson, Lamb, and Tolbert combine for 67.1 percent of the Cowboys' slot routes.

There are other games we can certainly attack, such as the Atlanta at Carolina game, along with the Arizona at Green Bay game. Many of those players will make my player pool. I’ll have them in my one-off section. The Falcons and Panthers game is expected to be the chalkiest game this week.

One-offs:

The following list of players will be the players I fill out the rest of my lineups with. Whether it be as a mini stack or a one-off. I won’t be able to use everyone but I will consider all when building lineups.

RB: Saquon Barkley (8.2k): It’s not the best matchup for Barkley, but he is expecting to be low owned, and he’s been fantastic to start the season.

RB: James Conner (6.8k): Conner is a true workhorse running back. The matchup is middling. If the Cardinals can keep it close, Conner should continue to see a large workload. The Packers give up 22.3 fantasy points per game to running backs.

RB: Josh Jacobs (6.7k): Jacobs was my top leverage play last week. Although it didn’t work out as planned, he still had a good game and his usage was solid. The game script should be favorable for Jacobs and the Cardinals are allowing 23.9 fantasy points per game to running backs.

RB: Tony Pollard (6.0k): The Colts have been better against the run than they were to start the season, but they are still allowing 25.1 fantasy points to running backs. Pollard is an option, but not one I’m going out of my way for.

RB: Bijan Robinson (6.6k): Robinson will be a popular play. The Panthers allow a whopping 31.6 fantasy points per game to running backs. The problem for me is, Robinson hasn’t been the true workhorse we expected prior to the season. I’ll have Robinson in my player pool but the chances he doesn’t put up a have to have it score is higher than what the field is suggesting.

RB: Chuba Hubbard (6.3k): The Falcons defense has been solid against running backs this season, allowing 18.4 fantasy points per game. Their defensive rush EPA is ranked 26th, though. Hubbard has 52 of the 67 carries from Panther running backs over the last three weeks. He is averaging 105 yards per game and 6.06 yards per carry during that time. His 23.8 fantasy points per game is fifth-best over those three games.

RB: Bucky Irving (5.4k): Irving will likely be the most popular running back on the slate. He may approach 50 percent ownership in small field contests. With Rachaad White ruled out, Irving expects to carry the majority of the load. He averages 5.61 yards per carry. Irving is a great way to save some salary. The Saints defense is 16th in the league in rush EPA. Irving will be popular for good reasons.

Green Bay Packers Pass Catchers: The Packers pass catchers Jayden Reed (7.0k). Dontayvion Wicks (5.2K), Romeo Doubs (5.2k), and Tucker Kraft (4.8k) are all in play. The Cardinals are 27th in EPA per drop back.

WR: AJ Brown (7.8k): Per Rich Hribar of Sharp Football, the Browns' defense plays man coverage at a higher rate than any other team and since joining the Eagles, AJ Brown has been targeted on 37.5 percent of his routes against man coverage.

WR: Chris Godwin (6.9k): Tampa Bay leads the league with 22.7 fantasy points per game from their slot wide receivers.

Atlanta Falcon WR’s: Both Drake London (6.7k) and Darnell Mooney (5.3k) we be chalky this week. The Panthers' defense ranks 30th in EPA per drop back. They allow 35.5 points per game to wide receivers, ninth-most in the league. Atlanta wide receivers average 43.8 points per game, the second most in the league.

WR: Diontae Johnson (6.1k): Johnson dominates the targets for Carolina. Johnson has a 27.4 percent target share over the last three weeks with Andy Dalton at quarterback. The Falcons' pass defense ranks 27th in EPA per drop back.

WR: Michael Wilson (4.6k): Over the last three weeks, Wilson has a 25.6 percent target share. He has 15 catches for 180 yards over that time. The Packers allow 26.3 points per game to outside wide receivers where Wilson runs 71.9 percent of his routes.

WR: DeAndre Hopkins (5.1k): The Titans are coming off a bye week and we are expecting Hopkin's playing time to continue to rise as he comes back from knee injury suffered in training camp. Over the last two weeks, Hopkins leads the team in target percentage, air yards and receiving yards. The Colts are 24th in EPA per drop back.

New England Patriot Pass Catchers: Drake Maye will get his first career start for the Patriots. Demario Douglas (4.4k), Ja’Lynn Polk (3.6k), and Hunter Henry (3.8k) will all be in play. They are all cheap and will come with no ownership. Maye can’t really be any worse than Jacoby Brissett in the passing game. The Patriots are 29th in EPA per drop back. I prefer Polk as we have seen him lead the team in target share and air yards over the last two weeks. If Maye can improve the pass game, we could see some production at cheap prices. The matchup for New England is average.  Houston allows 32 points per game to wide receivers. The league average is 32.2.

Indianapolis Colts WR’s: We need to monitor the injuries for the Colts. All of Anthony Richardson, Micheal Pittman and Josh Downs are questionable. If all three play, I won’t have any interest. If Richardson misses, the Colts wide receivers will be in play. If Pittman or Downs miss the game, we could have some salary savings from Adonai Mitchell or Alec Pierce.

That will be it for this week’s player pool. Should anything change and I add anyone to the player pool, I’ll be sure to update that on X. You can follow me Twitter/X here. If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to reach out. Good luck this weekend and we’ll see you at the top of the leaderboard.