The Conclusion: DraftKings DFS Core, GPP Plays

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Welcome to The Conclusion. Each week, I will go over my final player pool for the DraftKings main slate. This is not a list of all the good players. This is a list of players that will make my final player pool. We can’t play everyone.

Coming off a profitable Week 6, we’re looking to keep things rolling this week. For those who have been here before, you’ll notice a different format than usual. I’m attempting to shorten the article while still providing the same player pool I always do. Instead of full in-depth data for each play, I’ll provide a tidbit or two for most plays.

This week I have three stacks, but I don’t really have one ranked higher than the other. I have to start somewhere but I wanted to be transparent: I value all three stacks the same this week.

My contest selection for the main slate will generally be single or three max entry tournaments with less than 1,000 entries. I’ll usually do three lineups each week. This week, I’ll be in single-entry small field entries.

Stack No. 1: Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons

The Seattle Seahawks will travel to take on the Atlanta Falcons at 1:00 p.m. EST on Oct 20. This game has the second highest game total on the slate at 51.

We’ll start on the Seattle side.

Geno Smith (5.8k): A high game total. Geno averages 41.8 attempts per game. Seattle is No. 1 in PROE (pass rate over expectation) at 5.3 percent. Atlanta allows 21.6 fantasy pts per game to quarterbacks, second most in the NFL.

Kenneth Walker (7.3k): Not the best matchup for Walker, but he is a workhorse back who is used in the passing game in a high total. You can use Walker in stacks of this game or as a one-off.

DK Metcalf (6.8k): Leads the team in targets and in yard-per-route ran. DK has 11 or more targets in 3 of his 6 games this season.  

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (5.9k): Atlanta allows 16.6 fantasy points per game to slot wide receivers. JSN runs 88.5 percent of his snaps from the slot.

On the Atlanta side, we’ll be looking at the following players as potential bring backs.

Bijan Robinson (7.1k): Seattle allows 24.9 fantasy points per game to running backs, with a majority of that coming via the ground. Bijan is projected to be about half the ownership of his teammate Drake London.

Tyler Allgeier (5.1k): I’m unlikely to get here and I would only play Allgeier if building for a specific game script. If you believe Atlanta gets up big and Seattle is playing catchup, then we’ve seen Allgeier close out games for Atlanta.

Drake London (6.9k): London leads the team in target percentage, yard-per-route ran and receiving touchdowns. The matchup might be tougher than what the field is projecting. London is projected to be the highest-owned wide receiver on the slate and in small field he may approach 40 percent.

Darnell Mooney (5.6k): Mooney is second on the team in every stat I just mentioned for London. He is projecting to come in at about 18 percent ownership. I think I still prefer Bijan Robinson, but Mooney is certainly in play.

Kyle Pitts (4.1k): Pitts hasn’t received the target percentage (12.5 percent) we had hoped for coming into the season. Pitts does average 10.12 yards per target, which in best on the team. Seattle allows 13.2 fantasy points per game to tight ends which is the sixth-most in the league.

Stack No. 2: Carolina Panthers at Washington Commanders

The Carolina Panthers will take on the Washington Commanders at 4:05 p.m. EST on Oct 20. This game supports the highest game total on the slate at 51.5.

Starting with the Carolina side.

Andy Dalton (5.2k): Washington defense has the fifth-worst allowed EPA per drop back in the NFL. They allow an average of 19 fantasy points per game and we expect Carolina will be chasing points. This will be Dalton's best matchup on the season.

Chuba Hubbard (6.5k): Hubbard has been a workhorse running back for Carolina. Washington's defense has the seventh-worst allowed rushing EPA per play in the league. Washington is allowing 23.5 fantasy points per game with a majority of that coming via the ground. Hubbard is averaging 5.64 yards per carry. Hubbard is likely to be the highest-owned running back this week, especially in small field contests. He can be paired with Dalton in stacks or as a one-off.  

Diontae Johnson (6.6k): Washington allows 40 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, fifth-most in the league. They allow 23.3 fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers, where Johnson runs 76.8 percent of his routes. Johnson leads the team with a 25.5 percent target share.

Xavier Legette (5.1k): Legette is second on the team in targets over the last three weeks. He has 2 touchdowns and is averaging 10.9 fantasy points per game over that time. The matchup is much better than his previous few games as we noted in the Diontae Johnson portion.

Jalen Coker (3.0k): Coker is one of my favorite punt options this week. Over the last two weeks, we have seen him run the second-most routes for a wide receiver on the team and he has 7 catches on 7 targets. He has run 80 percent of his routes in the slot, where Washington allows the fourth-most fantasy points per game at 16.6 pts. At his price, it only takes one big play to pay off, but understand he could very well put up a zero. It’s risky, but I’ll take the chances.

Let’s look at the Washington side now.

You can use Jayden Daniels if you prefer to pay up. But I want to spend up at other spots this week, so I’ll be paying down at quarterback this week.

Washington Running Backs: As of this writing, we don’t know if Brian Robinson Jr. will play or how much he will play, so we will need to monitor this situation. This is an absolute smash spot for the Washington running backs. Carolina allows a league-high 33.5 fantasy points per game to running backs this season. The Washington running backs score the third-most fantasy points per game at 27.8. If Robinson is out, then Austin Ekeler (5.9k) and Jeremy McNichols (4.4k) will firmly be in play. If Robinson is active, it does muddy the waters some. We will need to see how much they expect him to play and make adjustments from there.

Terry McLaurin (6.8k): McLaurin runs 80 percent of his routes outside, where Carolina allows the fourth-most fantasy points at 23.6 per game. McLaurin has a team-high 24.9 percent target share with 4 touchdowns.

Noah Brown (4.0k): Brown is the WR2 for Washington. He is still coming off the field more than we would like, though. The matchup is great. There are other pay down spots I prefer.

Zach Ertz (3.8k): Ertz runs a route on 71.2 percent of drop backs, good for second on the team. The matchup is good, not great. Ertz is certainly in play for stacks, but I prefer other tight ends this week.

Stack No. 3: Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

The Detroit Lions will take on their division rival, the Minnesota Vikings, at 1:00 p.m. EST on Oct 20. The game total currently sits at 50.5

We’ll start with Minnesota.

Sam Darnold (6.2k): The Vikings are fourth in PROE at 3.7 percent. Minnesota only averages 27.6 pass attempts per game, but that is due to them not having to pass in the second half of games due to game script. I expect Detroit to hang around in this game. Teams can’t run on Detroit, and they are facing 40.4 pass attempts per game. I’m expecting a lot of passing this game as both teams stop the run well and get passed on a ton. In fact, the defenses allow a combined 86.4 attempts per game.

Justin Jefferson (8.5k): I don’t have to tell you how great Jefferson is, we all know. Detroit allows 43.7 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, second-most in the league only behind Minnesota. I’ll be stacking Darnold and Jefferson together. If you want to use Jordan Addison, too, you certainly can, but I’m looking to single stack the Vikings. Jefferson has a 31.2 percent target share, good for third in the NFL.

Let’s take a look at some potential bring backs on the Detroit side.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (8.3k): As previously mentioned, both defenses stop the run well. In terms of EPA per rush play, both defenses rank in the top 8 with the Vikings coming in third-best. The Vikings allow a league-high 44.5 fantasy points per game to wide receivers. They allow 25.6 (third-most) to outside wide receivers and 18.9 (second-most) to slot receivers. St. Brown will play both outside (43.5 percent) and in the slot (56.5 percent).

Jameson Williams (6.0k): Williams has the same great matchup that St. Brown does. Williams won’t go in the slot as much as St. Brown and he has a 19 percent target percentage compared to 27.5 for St. Brown. Williams is certainly in play this week.

Tim Patrick (3.5k): Patrick is a risky punt play this week. Over the last two games, we have seen Patrick run the third-most wide receiver routes for Detroit, only behind Williams and St. Brown. He only has 5 targets in the 2 games, but he does have 120 receiving yards. It’s risky and he could put up a zero. If I do use Patrick in a lineup, it will likely only be as part of this stack and not as a one-off. For him to hit, I feel this game as a whole needs to go off.

Sam LaPorta (5.3k): LaPorta has a 9.2 percent target share on the year. Hardly what fantasy players were expecting from the second-year tight end. The Vikings allow the seventh-most fantasy points per game to tight ends at 13.1. We know LaPorta has talent, we just haven’t seen the targets this year. If the targets come this week, it is a good matchup.

One-offs:

The following list of players will be the players I fill out the rest of lineups with whether it be as a mini stack or a one-off. I won’t be able to use everyone, but I will consider all when building lineups.

Los Angeles Rams: Kyren Williams (8.1k) is firmly in play with a great matchup. Williams is a true workhorse running back and the Raiders are allowing 26.5 fantasy points per game to running backs. If Cooper Kupp (7.9k) is a full go, he is in play, but I prefer Williams and other wide receivers at his price. If Kupp does sit, both Jordan Whittington (4.8k) and Tutu Atwell (5.0k) will both be in play. If Kupp plays, Whittington or Atwell will make my pool as I have no idea how they will deploy the wide receivers.

Houston Texans: All of Joe Mixon (7.2k), Stefon Diggs (7.7k), Tank Dell (6.5k) and Dalton Schultz (4.2k) will be in play for Houston. You can fully stack this game with Packers if you wanted, but I prefer the stacks previously mentioned. Due to price and matchup, I prefer Schultz in this matchup. The Packers allow the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends at 13.9.  The matchup for Diggs and Dell is good, but not great. I’m willing to use either one, but I’m not forcing it. Mixon has been great when he’s played so I don’t mind him at all. The Packers’ run defense has improved since last year. They’re closer to middle of the pack than one of the worst in the league.

Las Vegas Raiders: Brock Bowers (5.8k) is one of the top plays at tight end this week. The Rams allow 13.7 fantasy points per game to tight ends and Bowers has a 29.9 target share over that last two weeks. Tre Tucker (4.2k) failed to get a catch last week, but over the last three weeks he has run 84.2 percent of his plays outside where the Rams allow 23.1 fantasy points per game, sixth-most in the league. You could pair one of these guys with a Rams player for a mini stack if you wanted to.

Kansas City Chiefs: Both JuJu Smith-Schuster (4.0k) and Travis Kelce (6.3k) are firmly in play. Smith-Schuster found himself in the injury report this week and we’ll need to keep an eye on his status. If he is a full go, he’s a decent value play this week at $4,000. The matchup isn’t great for either player, but their usage should be there. Over the last two weeks, Kelce has a 25.6 percent target rate compared to the 12 percent he had over the first three weeks. With all the injuries to the Kansas City offense, they’ve had to rely on Kelce again.

Tyrone Tracy (6.2k): Tracy played well while Devin Singletary was injured. Good enough. I believe he’s earned more playing time even when Singletary returns. If Singletary returns this week, I’m less likely to use Tracy as we have no idea how they will deploy their running backs. But if Singletary sits out, Tracy will be in play. I’ll likely pass if Singletary plays.

Tony Pollard (6.3k): Pollard has a great matchup this week. The Bills allow 30 fantasy points per game to running backs. He’ll come with some ownership and the Titans are a bad team with a low team total, but the matchup is great. Tajae Spears is set to miss this game, moving Pollard into a potential workhorse spot.

Trey Sermon (5.5k)/Tyler Goodson (5.4k): I believe Sermon will be the main running back on first and second down, but Goodson has outplayed him over the last two weeks. Jonathan Taylor is set to miss his third game, and this is by far the best matchup for the Colts' running backs since Taylor's injury. The Dolphins allow 28.2 fantasy points per game and a majority of that come via the ground where we would expect Sermon to do most of his damage. I prefer Sermon if going here, but we’ll want to keep an eye on any reports of Goodson getting the bulk of the carries.

AJ Brown (8.0k): It’ll be tough for me to get to Brown due to price, but he has elite upside and has 19 targets in his two games this season. If I can mini stack Brown and Malik Nabers, I’ll do so.

Malik Nabers (7.5k): Head coach Brian Daboll understands the assignment. Nabers leads the NFL with a 35.9 percent target share. The offense flows through their superstar in the making. A Brown and Nabers mini stack has tremendous upside but it won’t be cheap.

Tyreek Hill (7.3k): We know his upside. His usage is still there, and he’s priced in the lower 7k’s. The matchup is good. And we must deal with his quarterback issues. He’ll be low owned. He can be played as a one-off or paired with Sermon for a low owned mini stack.

Christian Watson (4.9k): Watson returned from injury last week and ran a route on 62.9 percent of the Packers' drop backs, good for second-most for wide receivers on the team. Dontayvian Wicks left early and only ran six routes and is listed as questionable. If Wicks were to miss this game, then Watson would be in play for me. He’s cheap and we’ve seen his upside. You could mini stack him with one the previously mentioned Houston Texans. Last week, Watson had 3 catches for 68 yards and one touchdown.

George Kittle (6.0k): Kittle has been great this year and gets a Kansas City team allowing the most fantasy points per game to tight ends at 18.

That will be it for this week’s player pool. Should anything change and I add anyone to the player pool, I’ll be sure to update that on X. You can follow me Twitter/X here. If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to reach out. Good luck this weekend and we’ll see you at the top of the leader board.