The Conclusion: DraftKings DFS Core, GPP plays

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Welcome to The Conclusion. Where each week I will go over my final player pool for DraftKings main slate. This is not a list of all the good players. This is a list of players that will make my final player pool. We can’t play everyone.

There is a lot to like this weekend and there is plenty of value. Narrowing down the list will be a task this week.

My contest selection for the main slate will generally be single- or three-max entry tournaments with less than 1,000 entries. I’ll usually do three lineups each week. This week I’ll be in single entry small field entries.

Stack No. 1: Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

The Baltimore Ravens will take on division rival Cleveland Browns at 1 p.m. EST on Oct 27. This game has a total of 45. I’m likely to stack both sides of this game.

We will start with the Browns side.

Jameis Winston (5.2k): The Browns are third in PROE (Pass Rate Over Expectation) and the Ravens Defense has a PROE of 5.3, the highest in the league. The Ravens are allowing 21.6 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the third most in the league. They also allow 308.4 passing yards per game, the most in the league.

Browns pass catchers: In order from favorite to least favorite, all of David Njoku (5.1k), Cedric Tillman (3.3k), Jerry Jeudy (4.8k) and Elijah Moore (3.7k) are in play. The Ravens allow fifth most fantasy points per game to tight ends. They also allow 25.8 fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers, where Cedric Tillman ran 75.6 percent of his routes and Jeudy ran 73.1 percent of his routes last week. I’ll be using at least two of these guys in my Winston stacks, they can be used as one-offs as well.

Moving over the Ravens side.

Lamar Jackson (8.0k): The matchup isn’t the best. But Jackson will be low owned and he is the best quarterback in the game right now. He’s simply on another level. Jackson has the following DraftKings scores, 35.44, 22.92, 37.42, 24.64, 25.98, 17.38, 29.12. Only one of those games would have hurt you.

Derek Henry (8.1k): I’m not sure if I can get here this week, but Henry is just like Jackson. The matchup isn’t great, but Henry has been lights out this season. He averages 124.7 yards per game and is averaging 24.6 DK points per game.

Ravens pass catchers: We want to keep an eye on Zay Flowers' (6.8k) ankle injury. He will be firmly in play if he is a full go. Rashad Bateman (4.3k) has quietly come along over the last few games. He has double digit DK points in four of his last five games and is second on the team in target share over that span. Teams target their outside wide receiver against the Browns at a 40.2 percent clip, third highest in the league (40.4 percent is the highest). I’ll likely pass on the Ravens tights ends, but If I was to play, it’s likely I would go for Mark Andrews.

Stack No. 2: Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals.

The Philadelphia Eagles will take on the Cincinnati Bengals at 1 p.m. EST on Oct 27. With a game total of 47.5, this game has the second highest total on the slate.

We’ll start on the Bengals side of things.

Joe Burrow (7.0k): This game has a large range of outcomes. One of them being an absolute score fest. If that happens, you’ll want pieces of this game. Cincinnati is second overall in PROE. Burrow has an Adjusted EPA (Expected Points Added) per play of 0.237 good for fourth in the league. The matchup isn’t great, but it’s not bad either. The Eagles defense ranks 17th in allowed EPA per dropback.

Bengals pass catchers: It starts with Ja’Marr Chase (8.5k) for me. Over the last three weeks we have seen his target share increase to 26.1 percent. Tee Higgins (6.5k) is also in play. He will come with more ownership due to his recent target share and price being $2,000 cheaper than Chase. Higgins popped up on the injury report Friday with a quad injury. If Higgins were to miss, Andrei Iosivas (3.6k) will be in play. Earlier in the season when Higgins missed time, Iosivas ran a route on 89.5 percent of the team’s dropbacks,

I won’t go crazy with this game, but I do plan on stacking this game in one of my three lineups just in case it does become a score fest.

Moving on to the Philadelphia side.

Eagles bring backs: It centers around three players for Philadelphia and all three will likely come in with low ownership with immense upside. AJ Brown (8.2k) has the best matchup. He runs 75.6 percent of his routes outside where Cincinnati has allowed an average of 13.4 targets per game and 100.9 yards per game. Saquon Barkley (8.3k) has been one of the best running backs in the league this season. The Bengals have been decent overall vs. running backs, but a lot of that comes from them being very good defending the pass against running backs. They allow the fourth highest EPA per rush in the NFL. DeVonta Smith (6.6k) has the worst matchup of the three. With Brown healthy, Smith is running 72.2 percent of his routes in the slot, where Cincinnati has defended the pass well. They only allow 11.6 fantasy points per game vs. slot wide receivers. Smith will be very low owned and does till have fantastic upside.

Game, Team Targets:

Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins are simply too cheap for their range of outcomes. We’ve attacked the Arizona Cardinals’ defense all year long. If you want to stack Miami, do it. I just prefer the other quarterbacks mentioned above, but I will be sure a Dolphins player is in two, if not all three of my lineups. The likelihood of one of them putting up a great score is good. Tyreek Hill (7.0k) tops the list. I don’t have to tell you how good he is with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. He’s simply too cheap for his potential upside.

De’Von Achane (6.2k) and Jaylen Waddle (5.4k) will be in play. Again, these prices are just too cheap for their potential upside and being in a great matchup against a team we have attacked all year. Miami players will come with some ownership, these are not sneaky plays at all, but some chalk is good chalk. If you want to use a Cardinals player, James Conner (6.5k) is who I’d look at. I doubt I will get to Conner, but I’ll leave him in my pool for a potential mini stack.

Buffalo Bills and Seattle Seahawks: With a game total of 46.5, we have a shot at putting up some decent scores. My favorite play in this game and one of my favorite plays overall is Kenneth Walker (7.8k). Walker will go under owned compared to his upside. Buffalo allows explosive runs and the second-most passing points to running backs in the league. Two areas Walker excels in. If DK Metcalf is to sit, you can certainly look at Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett or Jake Bobo. Walker is my guy though. On the other side, James Cook (7.0k) is in a great spot this week. Seattle allows 129 rushing yards per game this season. Seattle has been decent against the pass this season but Amari Cooper (6.0k) and Khalil Shakir (5.9k) are in play and make good mini stacks with Walker.

Denver Broncos: Anytime you are playing the Carolina Panthers, you will have players in great spots. Javonte Williams (6.0k) will be one of the more popular running backs this week. He might be slightly over owned and his chances of putting up a have-to-have-it score might not be as high as his ownership. But he is in an absolute smash spot this week. The Panthers allow the most fantasy points per game to running backs in the league. Carolina is an equal opportunity defense, both Courtland Sutton (5.3k) and Troy Franklin (4.1k) are firmly in play. Carolina allows outside wide receivers to score the fourth-most fantasy points per game and the only reason that isn’t higher is because most teams are up big and running the ball to close the game out. Sutton and Franklin will both be low owned.

Green Bay Packers and Jacksonville Jaguars: This game supports the highest game total on the slate at 49.5. If you want to fully stack this game, do it. Jordan Love has 15 touchdown passes on the year, tied for second and he missed two games. Trevor Lawrence can be used as well. On the Jaguars side, if Travis Etienne Jr. is ruled out, Tank Bigby (6.3k) will be in play. The Packers have been better vs. the run this season. They allow 23.1 fantasy points per game to running backs which ranks 14th. Evan Engram (5.0k) is the Jaguar I’m most interested in. Although Green Bay has been improved on the defensive side, they have been attackable at the tight end position. We’ve seen Engram get 15 targets in his two games back from injury, good for a team-high 26.8 target percentage. On the Packers side, I’m most interested in Romeo Doubs (5.7k). Doubs is on the field more than any of the other Packers wide receivers and he runs 87.9 percent of his routes on the outside where Jacksonville allows a league-high 26.1 fantasy points per game. Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks and Tucker Kraft are all in play.

 Tampa Bay pass catchers: We must talk about the pass catchers here. Pricing came out before the Injuries on Monday night to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, creating some massive value for the Tampa Bay pass catchers. I’m not going out of my way to play or fade any of Tampa Bay's pass catchers. But the facts are, we simply don’t know how they will deploy the group and how they approach the game with their top two wide receivers out. Cade Otton (3.5k) will be the most popular Buccaneer this week. His ownership may approach 40-plus percent in small field contests. Jalen McMillian (3.7k) will be the next popular and is the most intriguing to me. He will likely come in around the 20 to 30 percent range in small field contest. Trey Palmer (3.5k) and Sterling Shepard (3.8k) will both likely be in the 10 percent range. This is a tough spot to dissect, we just don’t know how they will be used. Keep an eye out for reports from beat writers to see if we can get any word on how they plan to deploy the wide receivers.

Best of the Rest:

The following list of players will be the players I fill out the rest of lineups with. Whether it be as a mini stack or a one-off. I won’t be able to use everyone, but I will consider all when building lineups.

Joe Mixon (7.7k): Mixon has been excellent in his three starts. The matchup is great as the Indianapolis Colts allow 28.3 attempts per game and 125.4 rushing yards per game.

Breece Hall (7.3k): Hall will be the most popular running back on the slate. In small field contests, he is projected to reach the 40 percent range. It’s a great matchup for Hall. The New England Patriots allow the second most points to running backs at 28.3 fantasy points per game. We’ve seen Hall's usage tick up over the last two weeks, putting Hall firmly in play.

Kareem Hunt (6.3k): I can’t believe I’m saying this in 2024, but Hunt is certainly in play here. The matchup vs. the Las Vegas Raiders is solid as they allow 25.7 fantasy points per game. Hunt hasn’t been efficient, but he has dominated the back field touches over the last games. Hunt will come in lower owned than someone like Javonte Williams and could create some good leverage.

D’Andre Swift (6.2k): It never fails, I start to talk bad about a player as I did on Swift a few weeks back and he then has three solid games in a row. Albeit against three of the worst rush defenses in the league. But that doesn’t change for this matchup. The Washington Commanders' defense has the fifth-worst Rush EPA in the league, and they are allowing 114.4 rushing yards per game on 22.1 attempts.

Demario Douglas (4.7k): Douglas was limited last week due to an illness and the matchup isn’t great. But he does appear to be one of Drake Maye's favorite targets.

DeAndre Hopkins (4.9k): I have no idea how much Hopkins will play this week with his new team, but the Kansas City Chiefs need a reliable pass catcher. Keep an eye on reports to see if we can get word on how much he will be playing this week.

Brock Bowers (6.1k): Bowers has the best tight end matchup this week, as the Chiefs allow a league-high 17.5 fantasy points per game to tight ends. Bowers has been the best tight end this season and he has three straight games with 10-plus targets.

Hunter Henry (3.8k): Henry, like Douglas, doesn’t have the best matchup, but he has score double-digit DK points each of the last two week and appears to be another of Maye's favorite targets.

That will be it for this week’s player pool. Should anything change and I add anyone to the player pool, I’ll be sure to update that on X.

You can follow me Twitter/X here. If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to reach out. Good luck this weekend and we’ll see you at the top of the leader board.