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Welcome to The Conclusion. Where each week I will go over my final player pool for DraftKings main slate. This is not a list of all the good players. This is a list of players that will make my final player pool. We can’t play everyone.
Let’s get right to it. This will be one of the harder weeks of the season. There is not a lot of value this week, meaning we have tight pricing, making it harder to pay up for the more expensive players. The value we do currently have is thin.
My contest selection for the main slate will generally be single- or three-max entry tournaments with less than 1,000 entries. I’ll usually do three lineups each week. This week I’ll be in single entry small field entries.
Stack No. 1: San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 1 p.m. EST on Nov. 10. This game supports the second-highest game total of the week at 50.5 points.
As of now, the plan is for Brock Purdy (6.5k) to anchor all three of my lineups this week. The Buccaneers allow an average of 24.0 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Purdy should get more weapons this week, with Christian McCaffrey and Jauan Jennings expected to play. Last year the 49ers led the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage at 68 percent. This year, that number is 48.57 percent, ranked 28th. They are getting to the red zone 4.4 times per game, second most. The return of McCaffrey should help with some red zone woes. Purdy is likely to be the highest owned quarterback this week.
If McCaffrey (8.0k) gets a normal workload, he’s too cheap for his huge upside. If he plays 75 percent of his normal workload, he’s still a good play, but he will have to rely on efficiency. If he only plays 50 percent or less of his normal workload, he’s far too expensive. Buccaneers allow the third-most receiving fantasy points to running backs.
George Kittle (5.8k) and Deebo Samuel (6.9k) are my top two choices to pair with Purdy. Kittle is in a great matchup this week. Tampa Bay allows the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends at 15.7, while the 49ers score the third-most fantasy points per game at the tight end position (17.1). Kittle has slate-breaking upside. We’ve seen Samuel heavily targeted when Brandon Aiyuk was out. Aiyuk will be out the rest of the year and Tampa Bay allows 36.2 fantasy points to wide receivers, the fifth-most in the league.
I’ll start my Purdy stacks with at least one of the big three (CMC, Kittle and Samuel) and build out from there. If we want to add some value and double stack Purdy, Jennings (5.1k) and Ricky Pearsall (4.4k) are options, but with Jennings returning from injury, we really don’t know how much Jennings and Pearsall will play.
We don’t have to bring back anyone from the Tampa Bay side, and if Jalen McMillian (4.2k) plays, it makes the wide receiver situation even murkier. Cade Otton (5.5k) will be the most popular Buccaneer this week. He has been a target monster in the last few games. The matchup is not good. The 49ers are solid vs. tight ends. Otton is a volume-based play this week. Sterling Shepard (4.1k) is in play this week and if McMillian were to miss, Rakim Jarrett (3.6k) will be an option. I’ll pass on all the Tampa Bay running backs.
Stacking the 49ers will not be sneaky. As previously stated, Purdy will likely be the highest-owned quarterback on the slate. There are certainly other teams and/or games you can stack this week. But I’ve liked this game all week and instead of forcing something I’m not as high on, and with the uncertainty of who Purdy will bring with him as stacking partners, I’ll start all three of my lineups around a 49ers stack and create leverage at other spots in my lineups. If the 49ers fail in this spot and the other chalk hits, I’ll lose, and that’s something I’m ok with. If the 49ers hit, and the other chalk misses, then I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboard.
There are currently 15 players expected to garner 20 percent or more ownership in small field contests and one of them is a defense (oh my). Some of those are in very questionable matchups or have questions surrounding them. In large field contests, there are still 10 players expected to get 20-plus percent ownership. CMC, Kittle and Samuels’ ownership will be somewhat kept in check, simply because nobody knows which one to pair with Purdy. I’ll lean into the Purdy chalk and get different in other spots.
Game, Team Targets:
This is an odd slate in my opinion, I don’t have any other specific games or teams I’m going out of my way to target. I will attempt to get some mini stacks with the players in the “Best of the Rest” section. I may have more one-offs than a normal slate as I have some specific players I want to get into my lineups in an attempt to create some leverage.
Best of the Rest
The following list of players will be the players I fill out the rest of lineups with. Whether it be as a mini stack or a one-off. I won’t be able to use everyone, but I will consider all when building lineups.
RBs:
Saquon Barkley (8.3k) is one of my favorite plays of the week and if current ownership (10 percent) holds, he is great leverage off Alvin Kamara who is projecting for more than 30 percent in small field contests. This is a smash spot for Barkley. Dallas allows 27.3 fantasy points per game to running backs, and a 0.15 EPA/ per run, the highest in the NFL. I will force Barkley into at least one or two lineups this week. It won’t be easy due to salary, meaning I’ll have to pay down or punt at another position, creating more risk than what other DFS players may want to take on. Kamara will be a fade for me, but not because I necessarily think he fails, but I just really like Barkley and if the ownership does hold, it’s just a great way to create the leverage I need with going all in on a chalky Purdy. If you are doing multiple stacks with other teams use Kamara, he is in a great spot and a usage monster. This is simply a leverage play for me that certainly could fail.
Bijan Robinson (7.7k) has a solid matchup against a Saints defense that has struggled against running backs this season. In Robinsons’ last four games, he has scored DK points of 25.5, 26.3, 23.6 and 21.5.
Breece Hall (7.6k) has one of the better matchups this week. Hall has been a little boom or bust more this year so there is some risk here. The Arizona Cardinals allow 24.8 fantasy points per game to running backs.
Jonathan Taylor (7.5k) had scored DK points of 18.5, 29.5, 19.8, and 21.7 before failing last week and only getting 8.9 points. The Buffalo Bills allow 28.2 fantasy points per game to running backs (tied for second most). A lot of that comes from the receiving game. Taylor had 5 targets last week with Joe Flacco starting. The Bills also allow one of the higher percentages of explosive plays to running backs on the ground, something Taylor can exploit. Taylor or one of the other Indianapolis Colts players make a nice mini stack some a Bills bring back.
D'Andre Swift (6.5k) has great matchup this week and the Chicago Bears are 6.5-point favorites at home. The New England Patriots allow 124.6 rushing yards per game and 1.11 touchdowns per game. It’s unlikely Swift breaks the slate, but he has at least 18 touches in his last 5 games. Unfortunately, Roschon Johnson does come in for more goal line carries than we’d like to see if rostering Swift.
Rhamondre Stevenson (6.4k) is in a good spot if you think the Patriots can hang. In games the Patriots have kept it close, Stevenson has scores of 24.6, 17.0, 19.2, 23.5 and 22.4. In the three games the Patriots were blown out, he has point totals of 1.3, 9.2 and 4.5. The defense for Chicago has been good, but their weakness has been against the run game. Stevenson also creates some great leverage off a Chicago defense that is projected to be 45 percent owned in small field contests and more than 30 percent in large field. If those numbers hold true, I’ll absolutely fade the Bears’ defense. There is way too much variance in fantasy defense for me to ever play a defense bringing in that much ownership. That kind of ownership in a defense is not a good play in my opinion. If I lose because the Bears defense does go nuts, so be it. I’d fade this spot 10 out of 10 times.
Najee Harris (6.2k) has a solid matchup this week and quietly scored 23.2, 19.1 and 19.2 DK points over his last three games. He has topped 100 yards rushing in all three games.
Austin Ekeler (5.8k) will get the start again this weekend with Brian Robinson Jr. once again ruled out. The matchup isn’t great as the Pittsburgh Steelers have been stingy against the run. But they have been somewhat susceptible to pass catching running backs. Something we know Ekeler excels in.
WRs:
Justin Jefferson (8.8k) is in a smash spot this week. The Jacksonville Jaguars allow 37.3 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, the fourth most in the league. Most of that comes from outside wide receivers where Jefferson runs a team high 69.3 percent of his routes. The only concern here is if the Jaguars can keep it somewhat close, forcing the Minnesota Vikings to pass in the second half. If they can’t, we will need to rely on early game efficiency for Jefferson to have a “have-to-have-it” score.
Garrett Wilson (7.2k) has scored 27.7 or more DK points in three of his last five games. With only one dud (13.1 pts) during that time. The matchup is good, not great.
DJ Moore (6.3k) is having a down year. There is no way around it, and the frustrations appear to be showing. This is a decent matchup for Moore. The Patriots allow 20.9 fantasy points to outside wide receivers, where Moore plays a team high 68.8 percent of his routes ran. Squeaky wheel scenerio, maybe?
Colts WRs: With Michael Pittman Jr. ruled out, we do have some value spots opening up. The matchup is not good. The Bills have been tough against opposing wide receivers. Josh Downs (6.2k) will be the most popular Colts player this week. The Bills do allow most of their production to the slot wide receiver, where Downs runs 84.8 percent of his routes. Alec Pierce (4.9k) and Adonai Mitchell (3.4k) are the value plays. Pierce will be low owned due to his price being around other guys expected to have better roles, but we have seen Pierce score 24.5 and 25.4 DK points on a total of six targets. Mitchell will come with more ownership due to his extremely cheap price. He has yet to score double digit points in any game, but we do expect him to get more routes and targets with Pittman out. The matchup isn’t good, but with his price, it only takes one big play. Any of these players can be paired with a Bills player for a nice little mini stack.
Bills WRs: If Amari Cooper (5.8k) plays, he is certainly an option with great upside. Khalil Shakir (6.0k) has become a safety blanket for Josh Allen. Shakir has target counts of 7, 10 and 7 over his last three games. With Keon Coleman ruled out, Mack Hollins (3.3k) will have a bigger role. I’ll have more interest in Hollins if Cooper does miss. If Cooper plays, I’d probably look elsewhere.
DeAndre Hopkins (5.3k) is simply priced too low for his likely role in this offense. The matchup is not good, The Denver Broncos have been good against opposing wide receivers, but Hopkins should probably be priced at least $1,000 more than he is. Hopkins will be one of the more highly owned wide receivers this week. I’m not going out of my way to play or fade him, but when I need a wide receiver or flex in his price range, he will be a preferred option.
Rome Odunze (5.2k) has 13 targets over his last two games. He went for 104 receiving yards in his last game. He is in play as a leverage play off a chalky Hopkins. I’ll leave Odunze in my pool, but I think I like the squeaky wheel narrative with Moore this week, if using a Bears wide receiver.
Charger WRs: I was surprised to see Justin Herbert drawing ownership in the projections this week. Those gravitating to Herbert are pairing him with Ladd McConkey and Will Dissly, as both players are projecting for more than 20 per cent ownership. If I go here, I’m more interested in grabbing one of the downfield threats in Quentin Johnston (4.9k) and Joshua Palmer (4.8k). Both are projecting for low ownership. The Tennessee Titans have been good against opposing wide receivers. I won’t go out of my way to attack this spot, despite the Los Angeles Chargers and Herbert playing good ball lately.
Noah Brown (4.3k) is the No. 2 wide receiver for the Washington Commanders. He has 12 targets over his last two games and has scored 11.0 and 16.3 DK points in those games. The matchup isn’t great, but he’s cheap and his role has been growing in this offense.
Parker Washington (3.9k) ran 32 routes last week, tied for the team high. He had 6 targets which was second highest on the team. His aDOT (average depth of target) was 17.2 yards. He’s cheap, he’s on the field and he is projected for low ownership in a great matchup. The Vikings allow a league high 43.3 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Gabe Davis is questionable for this game. If he plays, that could lower Washington's route percentage. If Davis misses, expect the same route percentage as he previously had. I should mention that Mac Jones is likely to get the start at quarterback for Jacksonville this week.
TEs:
Travis Kelce (6.0k) doesn’t have the greatest matchup as Denver has limited tight ends this season. Kelce has a whopping 28.4 percent target share over his last 4 games.
Evan Engram (5.3k) led the team in targets last week and we have seen him get tons of targets when Christian Kirk misses games. Kirk is out for the season. As bad as the Vikings have been against wide receivers, they have been solid against opposing tight ends, only allowing 9.8 fantasy points per game. Engram is a volume-based play.
Dalton Kincaid (4.9k) has one of the better matchups for tight ends this week. The Colts allow 15.7 fantasy points per game to tight ends. Coleman is already ruled out and Cooper is questionable. Last week Kincaid led the team with 8 targets.
Taysom Hill (4.0k) is a do it all type player. He will line up in multiple positions. The New Orleans Saints are missing their top three wide receivers, and both back up running backs are out. I expect Hill to be involved again in the offense. Last week Hill had 5 targets, 5 rushing attempts and 1 pass attempt.
Hunter Henry (3.9k) leads the team in target percentage (18.4) with Drake Maye as the starting quarterback. He has 23 catches for 234 yards and 1 touchdown over that period.
That will be it for this week’s player pool. Should anything change and I add anyone to the player pool, I’ll be sure to update that on X. You can follow me Twitter/X here. If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to reach out. Good luck this weekend and we’ll see you at the top of the leader board.
Don't forget to check out our NFL Best Bets here.
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