.png)
_edited_edited.png)
Christmas is done, the eggnog is gone, and now fans are starting to turn their attention to the college football playoffs. This is the last year of the current 4-team playoff system, there will be a new 12-team playoff in 2024. Selection Sunday was filled with controversy after both Texas and Alabama jumped undefeated ACC champ Florida State, an unfair decision, but ultimately was the right decision made by the playoff committee.
Michigan secured its spot in the playoffs along with their #1 ranking (1st Big 10 team to be ranked #1 in the CFP) after going 13-0 in the regular season. Michigan's last game was a 26-0 win over number 16 Iowa in the Big 10 championship game.
The Wolverines Opponent in the game will be the fourth-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide. In the Tide’s last game, they beat the team that at the time, was the number #1 team in the country, the Georgia Bulldogs, 27-24 in the SEC championship game. The Tide are headed into the college football playoff with a 12-1 record, their only blemish coming at the hands of Texas early in the 2023 season.
Two of the biggest programs in all of college football will square off in the oldest Bowl game in college football. Known as the Granddaddy of them all, the Rose Bowl, with its iconic backdrop will be a fitting host for these two giants to do battle.
This will be the 6th Meeting between the two teams with Alabama holding a slight advantage at 3-2, but the two teams are 2-2 in bowl games. Michigan heads to Pasadena favored by 1.5 points making this a pick’em game, with the over/under set at 44.5 points. Michigan is the favorite but 59% of the bets and 73% of the money that’s coming in, is on the crimson tide to beat the Wolverines.
Broadcast information:
Date: Monday, January 1st, 2024
Kickoff: 5:00 pm Eastern on ESPN
Broadcast team: Chris Fowler(play-by-play), Kirk Herbstreit (color), Holly Rowe(Michigan sideline), Laura Rutledge(Alabama sideline)
How They matchup
Alabama | Michigan | |
35.1 | Average Points a Game | 36.7 |
18.4 | Points Allowed | 9.5 |
401.2 | Total Yds | 380.5 |
228.5 | Pass Yds | 218.8 |
172.7 | Rush Yds | 161.8 |
313.3 | Total Yds Allowed | 239.7 |
188.8 | Pass Yds Allowed | 152.6 |
124.5 | Rush Yds Allowed | 87.1 |
56 | Total TD's | 61 |
46.75 | 3rd down % | 46.71 |
5-6 | 4th down efficiency | 15-19 |
23 | Passing TD's | 21 |
6 | Interceptions | 5 |
43-311 | Sacks-Yards Lost | 18-149 |
30 | Rushing TD's | 35 |
14-4 | Fumbles- Fumbles Lost | 9-2 |
What's at stake?
Michigan and Alabama head to the Rose Bowl after accomplishing their 1st goal of winning their conference titles. Both teams now face increased pressure with a trip to NRG Stadium in Houston Texas for the chance to play for the National Championship on the line.
The Wolverines are looking for a chance to win their first National Championship since 1997. Michigan is also looking to change the narrative that they can’t win bowl games. Since 2000 the Wolverines hold a 6-14 record and are coming off 6 straight bowl losses. Head coach Jim Harbaugh is also looking for his 1st bowl win since 2016 and with a 1-6 record overall in bowl games at Michigan, Harbaugh is trying to prove his naysayers wrong about his ability to win the biggest games.
Unlike the Wolverines, the Tide come in with nothing to prove when it comes to success in bowl games. Since 2014 Alabama has an 11-4 record with 3 National championships. Head coach Nick Saban, who is considered the best coach in Alabama history holds a 16-6 bowl record along with 6 National Championships in his time in Tuscaloosa. Saban has proven he knows how to and will have Alabama ready to play in the playoffs/bowl games. This is something Harbaugh has not shown the same ability to do.
Key players - Alabama
QB Jalen Milroe, LB Dallas Turner, LB Chris Braswell, DL Justin Eboigbe, DB Caleb Downs, DB Terrion Arnold, DB Kool-Aid Mckinstry
Key Players - Michigan:
QB J.J McCarthy, RB Blake Corum, LB Junior Colson, DL Kris Jenkins, DL Kenneth Grant, DB Mike Sainristil, DB Will Johnson.
Projected Weather
A mix of sun and clouds with a high of 61°f and a low of 46°f, 20% POP with winds from the south at 3mph and gusts up to 5mph.
Key Matchup - QB Jalen Milroe vs QB J.J McCarthy
This game might just be as simple as which quarterback doesn’t make any mistakes. Both QBs are extremely athletic with the ability to both run and throw the ball, making both dangerous. Milroe can make every throw when given time, just ask Auburn. JJ over his two years as a starter has shown that he can make the throws, you see the QBs that play on Sundays make, but still has tendencies to take risks and throw across his body.
Jalen Milroe | Passing | JJ McCarthy |
171 | Pass Completion | 213 |
261 | Att | 287 |
2718 | Yds | 2630 |
65.5 | Comp % | 74.2 |
10.4 | Avg | 9.2 |
23 | TD | 19 |
6 | INT | 4 |
38 | Sacked | 18 |
-279 | Sacked YDS Lost | -149 |
Rushing | ||
140 | Car | 57 |
468 | Yds | 146 |
3.3 | avg | 2.6 |
53 | Long | 22 |
12 | TD's | 3 |
The Defensive Coordinators on both teams will need to always account for the QB position on the field during every play. The DC who over the last 3 weeks came up with the best plan to limit the QB’s ability to make big plans will give his team an overwhelming advantage.
Milroe started the year off slow, even being beached at one point, but since then has shown constant improvement. Milroe improvement week in and week out has been so drastic that he has become one of the favorites to win the Heisman in 2024. J.J. has been consistent all year, showing the ability to make the right read and manage the game without turning the ball over.
Key Matchup - Turner/Braswell vs Michigan O-Line
Look no further than the Penn State game where the Michigan front was unable to pass protect for QB J.J. McCarthy, forcing the Wolverines to become one-dimensional. In that game Michigan resorted to playing 'bully ball', running the ball 27 straight times, the problem is that 'bully ball' won’t work on Alabama.
Alabama racked up 38 sacks on the season led by projected 1st round pick Dallas Turner. Chop Robinson from Penn State proved to be a big problem for Michigan's offensive line. Dallas Turner is even better as a player, and then you include Chris Braswell in the Tide’s pass rush and the Michigan O-line will have their hands full all night long.
Dallas Turner | Chris Braswell | |
50 | Total Tackles | 41 |
26 | Solo | 16 |
24 | Ast | 25 |
9 | Sacks | 8 |
66 | Sack Yards | 57 |
The key for Michigan is going to be staying on schedule to avoid 3rd down and long passing plays where Bama edge rushers can pin their ears back and attack. Michigan, by keeping on schedule can keep the playbook wide open for the offense while keeping the defense guessing.
Key Matchup - Michigan WRs/TEs vs Bama Secondary
The Alabama secondary is filled with talent, it’s led by projected top-20 picks Terrion Arnold and Kool-Aid Mckinstry. Michigan WRs/TEs will need to find a way to make big plays if Michigan hopes to find any offensive success. It’s essential the Wolverines find ways to move the ball in the air forcing Bama to use extra bodies to drop back into coverage. If they do it will help loosen up the line of scrimmage for Michigan giving their running games more room to work.
Moving anything in the air against the Alabama secondary is easier said than done. Alabama has not 1, but 2 defensive backs, projected as first-round picks in their secondary. One of the key matchups to look for is who will be on McCarthy's number one wide-receiving target Roman Wilson. Michigan will look to move Wilson around and try and get him lined up against true freshman Caleb Downs. Look for Wilson to challenge the young safety and see if he is up to the test in the biggest game of the year.
Key Matchup - RB Blake Corum/ Donovan Edwards vs Alabama Defensive Front
Michigan will need Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards to have their best game of the year if they hope to beat Alabama. Michigan's running game has been able to move the ball all year but has lacked big plays. Corum and Edwards will need to find a way to create some of those big plays that have been lacking.
If they can hit the big plays, it will make Michigan’s play action more effective. When the play-action is working, Michigan's offense is at its best. It will also help to slow down Bama’s edge rush giving J.J. the time he needs to make plays with his arm and feet.
Michigan will be facing a front seven that is big, strong, and fast, the best group they will face all year. Alabama's front doesn’t make many mistakes and will look to take advantage of missing OL and team captain Zak Zinter. Zinter was a keep piece in the Michigan running game and we will see how the line looks and their ability to open holes in his absence.
Prediction - Rose Bowl
Michigan comes in as the Number one ranked team in the country the problem. Saban while at Alabama holds an 8-2 record when playing the number one team. Harbaugh has shown no success in past bowl games, coming off their worst bowl game performance in last year’s CFP game vs TCU.
Saban will not only have his team ready to play, but they will be playing with a chip on the shoulder wanting to prove the committee made the right decision by putting them in.
This game will come down to the battles in the trenches. The team that wins the most battles on the line will win the game. Alabama has just too much elite talent on their O and D line for Michigan to be able to match up with.
Alabama 27 Michigan 20
.png)
.png)
Comentários