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The trajectory of Wisconsin's football program changed forever when Barry Alvarez was hired as head coach in 1990. Since then, Wisconsin's record is 284-141, including 29 bowl game appearances. In the 2010s, Wisconsin had the eighth-highest winning percentage in Division I college football.
What are the top five what-if moments from the past 35 years that could have dramatically altered the program's history? Let's take a look, in order from least to most impactful.
The Demons of Northwestern
Northwestern has been a thorn in Wisconsin's side, with the Badgers holding only a 15-12 record against the Wildcats since 1990. Despite Northwestern's overall record of 195-214 during that period, this head-to-head matchup has not favored Wisconsin as much as expected. Long-time Badger fans know the real challenge has been playing in Evanston, where Wisconsin is just 5-9 in the last 14 games. And yes, to address any Northwestern discussion of their wins over Wisconsin: Jazz caught it!
What-if Factor
What if the Badgers were as successful against Northwestern as they are against other Big Ten Conference opponents? For example, during the same period, the Badgers are 22-5-1 against Purdue and 26-8 against Minnesota. Between 2005 and 2015, the Badgers lost four times to Northwestern (three in Evanston), in seasons where they finished 10-3 or better. With more wins against Northwestern, Wisconsin would have finished with better records, higher standings, and potentially played in bigger bowl games.
Wisconsin Football Country: Let's Ride Longer
The lone season Russell Wilson played for the Wisconsin Badgers (2011) was amazing, culminating in an 11-3 record and a win in the inaugural Big Ten Championship game over Michigan State. Wilson posted unprecedented numbers for a Badgers quarterback, throwing for 3,175 yards, 33 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. He also rushed for 338 yards and 6 touchdowns. Wilson set several NCAA records that year, including the most consecutive games with a touchdown pass (37) and the highest passing rating (191.8).
What-if Factor
What if Wilson transferred to Wisconsin one year earlier? The 2010 Badgers finished the season 11-2 and No. 7 in the final Associated Press poll. The two losses occurred on the road against Michigan State and in the Rose Bowl against Andy Dalton and the TCU Horned Frogs. Quarterback Scott Tolzien had pedestrian statistics in both games, with a passer rating of 20.4 against Michigan State and 84.4 against TCU. It's not hard to foresee a different outcome in both games if Wilson had been the quarterback. With both JJ Watt and Wilson on the same team, 2010 could have been a magical season.
Metrodome Loss
The 1993 Badgers football team was an outstanding success, finishing 10-1-1, including a thrilling 21-16 victory over UCLA in the 1994 Rose Bowl. Running back Brent Moss rushed for 1,637 yards and was named Big Ten Player of the Year, marking the first time a Wisconsin player won the award since 1962. Additionally, Alvarez won Big Ten Coach of the Year. The team's performance that season cemented the belief among Badgers fans that things were going to be different at Camp Randall going forward.
What-if Factor
What if the Badgers had not lost 28-21 to the Minnesota Gophers that year in the Metrodome? Imagine if the Badgers hadn't fallen behind 21-0 or if quarterback Darrell Bevell hadn't thrown five interceptions. Imagine if Wisconsin relied instead on its potent ground attack and left Minneapolis with a victory. How much higher than No. 6 would an undefeated Badgers team have finished in the final AP poll? Could they have found a way to sneak into the national championship game, especially if they had beaten, instead of tying, Ohio State later in the season?
2017 Big Ten Championship Game
The 2017 Badgers entered the Big Ten Championship game undefeated and ranked No. 3 in the country, ready to face the No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes whose record was 10-2. Eleven of Wisconsin's triumphs were by double digits. Their narrowest margin of victory came in a 17-9 win over Purdue. Freshman running back Jonathan Taylor led the offensive attack, finishing first in the Big Ten and third in the FBS with 1,977 rushing yards. The Badgers lost a close game to the Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship, 27-21, but rallied to beat the Miami Hurricanes 34-24 in the Orange Bowl, finishing the season 13-1.
What-if Factor
What if quarterback Alex Hornibrook led the Badgers down the field late in the fourth quarter for a 28-27 victory over Ohio State? Wisconsin started a drive at their 29-yard line with 2:53 remaining and advanced to Ohio State's 43-yard line. What if Taylor finally broke loose for a long touchdown run in a game where he was held to 41 rushing yards on 15 carries? Wisconsin would have dramatically won the Big Ten championship and likely replaced Alabama as the fourth team in the 2017 College Football Playoff.
Alvarez Says 'No'
Alvarez saved the Wisconsin football program from a sad existence and made Camp Randall the place to be on Saturdays in Madison. He also had a significant impact on Wisconsin athletics during his 18 years as athletic director, with Badgers teams winning 16 national titles and 74 conference regular season or tournament championships. If they are being honest, many Badgers fans will admit they rolled their eyes when Alvarez said, "They better get season tickets right now," on a cold winter day in Madison on Jan. 2, 1990, when his hiring as coach was announced. Alvarez delivered. He finished with a record of 118-75-4 and led the Badgers to 13 bowl games, where they had a 9-4 record.
What-if Factor
What if Alvarez turned down the Wisconsin coaching job? He had just completed two successful seasons as the defensive coordinator for Notre Dame, where the 1988 Irish defense finished No. 3 and the 1989 defense No. 9 in the nation in points allowed. Coach Lou Holtz certainly would have welcomed him back for another year as defensive coordinator while Alvarez waited for a different job to open up. Since Alvarez was the perfect fit for the Badgers job, it's hard to imagine Wisconsin football becoming relevant and successful without him. In the worst-case scenario, Alvarez might have used Holtz's two-year stint at Minnesota in the mid-1980s as a point of reference and taken the Minnesota job when it became available in 1992.
Luck of the Badgers
While several of these what-if scenarios might have led to historically great seasons, had they come to fruition, the Badgers have often fallen on the right side of the equation.
The decision to hire Luke Fickell over Jim Leonhard in November 2022 will be a fascinating what-if scenario to evaluate in the future. This decision might determine whether the Badgers sustain their position as one of the more successful college football programs annually.
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