Week 12: Sharp Money Not Lining Up with Public Bet Favorite

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Each week, I will comb through the college football slate to try and figure out what games look to have the sharp or respected money differing from the public money. The hope here is that this added information will help you before you place your wager.

No. 3 Texas at Arkansas (Texas -12.5)

The No. 3-ranked Texas Longhorns head to Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium for a Southeastern Conference showdown with the Arkansas Razorbacks. The game kicks off at noon Eastern on Nov. 16 in Fayetteville, Ark. on ABC. Texas is coming off a win after embarrassing Florida 49-17. Arkansas lost at home to Ole Miss, 63-31.   

On paper, this looks like a no-brainer. All signs point to the Longhorns running away with this one and the books thought so, too, with Texas opening as a 16.5-point favorite. The public heads to the books in herds, laying their money on Texas with the Longhorns getting 85 percent of the bets. With the line dropping from -16.5 Texas to -12.5 Texas, it appears that the books are putting more value on the beaters who make up the 15 percent.

The book never wants to make it easier for the betting public, so why drop the line? This looks to be the typical reverse line movement. As the more respected sharp money comes in on Arkansas, it's pushing the line in the opposite direction of the betting public opinion. This line will continue to drop until the professional or sharp money better no longer sees value in the number.

No. 1 Oregon at Wisconsin (Oregon -13.5)

Camp Randall Stadium, home to the Wisconsin Badgers, welcomes in the No. 1 Oregon Ducks. The game will air at 7:30 p.m. on Nov. 16 in Madison, Wis. on NBC. The Ducks have been flying. In their last four games, no team has come within 21 points of beating them. The last real close game? Go back to Week 7, a 32-31 victory over Ohio State. Wisconsin is coming off a bye but has a two-game losing streak, falling in Week 9 to Penn State 28-13 and in Week 10 to Iowa 42-10.

Oregon averages more points a game, total yards a game, allows fewer points and fewer yards a game yet only opened as a -14-point favorite. That low number has had the public flying to drop bets and money on the Ducks to cover the number. The Ducks have been receiving 90 percent of the bets, accounting for 89 percent of the money coming in. 

With such high percentages coming in on Oregon, the line should be moving yet for the most part it has sat dormant. The few times it has increased to 14.5, it didn’t take long for it to drop back to the key number of 14. This game looks to have what some call a line freeze. This means that whenever the books move the line up, sharp money starts pouring in on Wisconsin and forces the books to backpedal. The surprising part? You're even now seeing the line drop off the key number of -14 to -13.5.

Kansas at No. 6 BYU (BYU -2.5)

Kansas heads on the road coming off a win over Iowa State to take on No. 6 BYU. The game will be on at 10:15 p.m. EST on Nov. 16 in Provo, Utah on ESPN. Kansas went into the season as a Top 25 team. But after a 5-game losing streak, the Jayhawks have not lived up to expectations. All 6 of their loss have been by less than a score. BYU is 9-0 but very easily could have suffered a few losses this season. The Cougars are a team that keeps winning. Many believe it’s unsustainable to keep winning the way they are. It's only a matter of time before they don’t get that break and let a game slip away.

The way BYU has been playing could be why a top 10 team only opened as a -3.5-point favorite at home to an unranked team three games under .500. The betting public likes the number and BYU has been getting 78 percent of the bets, yet the line has dropped to -2.5. This is because the 22 percent betting Kansas makes up 45 percent of the money. The public who typically wagers small amounts looks to be taking BYU; the professional or sharp betters who wager larger amounts have been on the opposite side, causing the fluctuation. The sharp money that seems to be coming in has forced the books into a reverse line movement to try and take any value the sharps see away.