Week 4 Picks: 5 Most Important Games in the Big Ten

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Week 4 has arrived, meaning most of the nonconference games are over and conference play is finally here. This week features two Associated Press Top 25 Poll matchups in Big Ten Conference play as No. 24 Illinois is at No. 22 Nebraska, and No. 11 USC heads to Ann Arbor to face No. 18 Michigan. With Week 4 play about to start the B1G has 6 teams inside the AP Top 25. Ohio State is the top ranked B1G team at No. 3.

This week also features two Atlantic Coast Conference against B1G matchups.  After the B1G was embarrassed in Weeks 2 and 3 by SEC teams, the B1G will hope to rebound and take down its ACC rivals.

College Football Dawgs B1G reporters will look to pick the winners of the five biggest games this week inside the B1G against the spread.

No. 11 USC (2-0) at No. 18 Michigan (2-1), (USC -5.5)

CBS, 3:30 p.m. EST, Sept. 21, Ann Arbor, Mich

Wolverines fans will quickly learn Alex Orji isn't a good option at quarterback either. This will be a statement win for USC and be ready for Big Ten championship aspirations emanating from Southern California. Take USC—Kyle Golik

While I like quarterback Miller Moss and what the Trojans are doing, their biggest win might have been against a fraudulent team in LSU at a neutral site. I think this will be their first true road test and it’ll be closer than what people expect. Take Michigan and the points—Brett Fine Jr.

USC heads to the Michigan Stadium for the first time since 1958, and their first-ever B1G conference game. USC is coming off a bye week giving them two weeks to prepare for this top-25 matchup. USC's biggest question mark entering the season was how good their defense would be, but the answer is good as they come in ranked 18th in the nation for points allowed. Michigan, on the other hand, has yet to find any rhythm on offense and the defense has fans comparing it to the Don Brown days. Head coach Sherrone Moore switched to Alex Orji at QB this week after a 2-interception day by Davis Warren the week before. With Orji starting Michigan now needs to rework their entire offense to fit his style of play, and it just can't be done in four days.  Take USC to cover easily—Mike Germanese

I know Michigan just had a change at quarterback but this isn't ample time to prepare for a big home game against the Trojans. This game will play out like the Texas game did and USC wins by two scores—Jay Holahan

Despite this matchup not being a classic Rose Bowl game of yore, all eyes will be on The Big House. On paper, this is a matchup of two college football powerhouses, but the two programs are currently headed in different directions. While Michigan is still licking its wounds from losing to Texas and embarking on a quarterback change, the Trojans are ascending back to the top of college football after two straight wins against ranked opponents. USC QB Miller Moss has been the opposite of a quarterback problem, ranking seventh in the nation in passing yardage with 337 yards per game. Although the Trojan defense is giving up an average of 305.5 yards of offense per game, the Wolverines have only averaged 329.3 yards of offense per game. With an improved defense facing a new quarterback, USC will win and cover in this battle of bluebloods—Matt Girard

No. 24 Illinois (3-0) at No. 22 Nebraska (3-0), (Nebraska -7.5)

FOX, 8 p.m. EST, Sept. 20, Lincoln, Neb.

I love the weapons Luke Altmyer has with Pat Bryant and Kaden Feagin. I don't think the Illinois defense is going to hold Nebraska to single digits in points, but they will give Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola fits. Nebraska wins the game, Illinois beats the spread—Kyle Golik

I do think this game will be closer than what people expect, but I like Nebraska by 10 to 14. They’re on a roll, but the Illini will show some fight like they always do. Take Nebraska to cover—Brett Fine Jr.

Illinois entered to AP Top 25 this week for the first time this season after three straight wins to open the year. That’s thanks to a defense ranked 13th in the country for points allowed giving up  8.7 points a game. It’s a defense that’s also good at taking the ball away at plus-8 in turnover difference this season. The Illinois defense will face its biggest test as Nebraska that comes in at plus-3 in turnover difference which is a big improvement from a year ago where they finished the season at minus-17. Freshman star QB Dylan Raiola looks as advertised coming out of high school and plays with the confidence of a QB who has been in college for a few years. Illinois' defense is good but the Nebraska offense is better. This game will be when people start looking at Nebraska as a College Football Playoff Contender. Take Nebraska to cover—Mike Germanese

This could be the Cornhuskers coming out party and Dylan Raiola will have the attention of the entire CFB community watching him to see if he's the real deal. Take Nebraska to cover—Jay Holahan

An intriguing early conference matchup between one of the nation’s top defenses going against one of college football’s young star quarterbacks. Illinois has jumped out to a 3-0 record thanks to their defense which is ranked in the top 10 in the country in scoring, allowing just 8.7 points per game. The Cornhuskers, on the other hand, have been an offensive juggernaut behind freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola. Nebraska is averaging 34 points per game and is averaging 421 yards of offense per game. Railoa and the Nebraska faithful will prove to be too much with the Friday night stage all to themselves for the Fighting Illini. Nebraska will win, but will not cover—Matt Girard

Iowa (2-1) at Minnesota (2-1), (Iowa -2.5)

NBC, 7:30 p.m EST, Sept. 21, Minneapolis

Minnesota should be 3-0. They have pitched back-to-back shutouts and Iowa's offense is always prone to be faulty. Take Minnesota—Kyle Golik

Home field comes into play here for me. Iowa raised some concerns after their performance against Iowa State. I like this to be a low-scoring, field-position battle. I can see Iowa winning this game by a point or two on a game-winning field goal, allowing Minnesota to cover. Take Minnesota and the points—Brett Fine Jr.

This game will come down to one thing—offense. This game feels like whoever gets to 20 points first wins. Both these team's strengths come on the defensive side of the ball making this a typical game that Iowa fans have become accustomed to. I believe quarterback Cade McNamara will give Iowa the advantage in this one and will move the ball just a little more than his counterpart in Minnesota. I believe in McNamara more than Max Brosmer and for that reason take Iowa to cover here—Mike Germanese

With how Iowa struggled against Troy last week and PJ Fleck's offense being similar to the Hawkeyes, this should be a good/close game between the two rivals. Iowa holds the upper hand because it is the more experienced/polished team. Take Iowa to cover—Jay Holahan

If you are looking for points in the battle for the Floyd of Rosedale, they might be hard to come by in the 2024 installment of the rivalry game between Iowa and Minnesota. Minnesota boasts the fifth-best defense in the country, allowing an average of just 186.3 yards per game, allowing just 6.3 points per game and is coming off of two consecutive shout-out performances. The Iowa offense is averaging more than 400 yards per game and 32.3 points per game, but the Golden Gophers should be able to control the game with their stingy defense and running back duo of Darius Taylor and Marcus Major who have combined to average 5.3 yards per carry and 5 touchdowns. The Golden Gophers will bring the Floyd of Rosedale home in an upset—Matt Girard

Michigan State (3-1, B1G 1-0) at Boston College (2-1, 1-0 ACC), (MSU +6.5)

ACC Network, 8 p.m EST, Sept. 21, Chestnut hill, Mass.

Michigan State beat Maryland and I love what Jonathan Smith is doing early in his tenure. I am not sold on the Boston College offense to be a touchdown better. It will be close and Michigan State will beat the spread against Boston College—Kyle Golik

Quarterback Thomas Castellanos is electric, and Bill O’Brian gives me the impression that his coaching abilities are much better than a lot of current college football head coaches. I like the Eagles by at least a touchdown at home. Take BC to cover—Brett Fine Jr

There is just something about Michigan State this year that’s intriguing. Coming into the season Las Vegas had MSU at 4.5 wins and by the end of Week 4 they might be a win away from hitting the over. Jonathan Smith seems to be building something in East Lansing, Mich., and with each game the team is buying in even more to his philosophy. Quarterback Aidan Chiles was going to be the "X-factor" before the season and with each passing game, it looks more and more like he will be. Boston College beat a bad Florida State team in Week 1 and went toe-to-toe with No. 7 Missouri in Week 3,  losing 27-21. However, MSU's Chiles will have his best game of the season and duel Boston College QB Thomas Castellanos in this one. Look for Chiles to take the top of the defense a few times. Who needs the points to take MSU to win outright—Mike Germanese

Boston College takes this one. They went toe to toe with the No. 7 Missouri Tigers in Columbia, Mo. and lost by six points. In my opinion, the Eagles still should be ranked and they'll prove it against MSU this Saturday. Take BC to cover—Jay Holahan

Possibly one of the more surprising 3-0 teams in the conference, the Spartans are looking to start a season 4-0 for the first time since 2021 when they take on Boston College in Chestnut Hill, Mass. Michigan State has averaged more than 400 yards of offense per game and scored an average of 27.7 points per game, but face an Eagles defense that is allowing just 13.3 points per game. Michigan State’s defense is allowing just 11.3 points per game, but will have to contend with quarterback Thomas Castellanos who has thrown 9 touchdowns (tied for fourth in the nation) to just 2 interceptions on the season. Boston College will catch Michigan State looking ahead to its matchup against No. 3 Ohio State next week and squeak out a win at home, but won’t cover for the first time this season—Matt Girard

Rutgers (2-0) at Virginia Tech (2-1), (Rutgers +3.5)

ACC Network, 3:30 pm EST, Sept. 21, Blacksburg, Va.

Much like we don't know about some of the defenses in Illinois and Minnesota, the Rutgers offense isn't going to average 47 points per game all season, but they are improved. I cannot get a vibe on Brent Pry's Hokies. They seem to drop games they shouldn't and win games they make you wondering how they won in the first place. I like the certainty of Rutgers in this one—Kyle Golik

I’m just not sold on Virginia Tech—yet. I’m a fan of what Greg Schiano is doing at Rutgers and they seem to be the type of team who can keep a lot of teams close. I could see this being a close game and I have Rutgers to cover—Brett Fine Jr.

One name—Kyle Monangai. The Rutgers starting running back, who after two games is averaging 186.5 yards per game, is about to have another big game. That is because Virginia Tech's defense is allowing 190.3 rushing yards per game on the ground, ranking them No. 98 in the nation. Rutgers won’t get the respect they should because of the name on their jersey, but Greg Schiano has slowly been building something in Piscataway, N.J. This will be the game where Rutgers shows everyone they are better then people think. Take Rutgers and the points, but you’re not going to need the points in this one—Mike Germanese

I've been bullish on the Scarlet Knights all throughout summer and they're ready to prove to the country that they're not the "same old Rutgers." Virginia Tech hasn't looked as finished as I thought they'd be at this point so I'm going with Rutgers on the road in Blacksburg—Jay Holahan

The Scarlet Knights are 2-0 on the season but have yet to face any tough competition, until this weekend when they travel to take on Virginia Tech in one of the most intimidating college football environments in the nation in Blacksburg. Despite the hostile environment, Rutgers has built a team that can travel with a stout defense and superb rushing attack behind running back Kyle Monangai (4 rushing touchdowns in two games). The Scarlet Knights have allowed just 12 points per game and are No. 3 in the country in rushing, averaging 307 yards per game. The Hokies’ defense has been giving up an average of 190 yards rushing per game and 21.7 points per game. Thanks to their defense and ball-control offense, Rutgers will come away with the upset to improve to 3-0—Matt Girard