Week 5 Picks: 5 Most Important Game in the Big Ten

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Week 5 is already here and for the first time this season there are no nonconference matchups. The biggest matchup of the week features two Associated Press Top 25-ranked teams in No. 19 Illinois (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten Conference) at No. 9 Penn State (3-0).  Illinois will look to prove they are a contender this season while Penn State needs to show they can beat a top 25 team.

The highest-ranked team in the Big Ten, No. 3 Ohio State (3-0) heads on the road for the first time and will look for another dominating performance. No. 12 Michigan (3-1, 1-0) will look to run the ball again on offense but must find a passing game if they want to make it back to the B1G Championship game for a fourth straight time.

No. 13 USC (2-1, 0-1) is coming off their first loss and will look to bounce back in their first-ever B1G conference home game. Rutgers (3-0) is perfect so far this season and has flown under the radar but with a win this week that could change.

College Football Dawgs B1G reporters will look to pick the winners of the five biggest games this week inside the B1G against the spread.

No. 19 Illinois at No. 9 Penn State (Penn State -18)

NBC, 7:30 p.m. EST, Sept. 28, University Park, Pa.

Penn State is fresh after playing Kent State—no defensive player played more than 25 snaps. This week, the starters playing time will increase exponentially. This is a game Penn State would like to earn respect nationally taking out a top-20 team. Take Penn State—Kyle Golik

Illinois has impressed me thus far, and while Nebraska might not be in Penn State's tier, yet, their road win against them gives me confidence that they can keep this game in between the 14-17 point range. Illinois will cover but Penn State still wins—Brett Fine Jr.

This will be Penn State's first real test of the season and coach James Franklin understands it and has asked fans to bring White Out energy to the game. Franklin holds a 12-26 record when playing Top 25 teams and must start winning these games before fans ask for his job. In his two biggest games last season, quarterback Drew Allar underperformed. This will be his first chance to show he can win the big conference games. Illinois beat Nebraska (3-1, 0-1) thanks to the help of nine penalties. Take Penn State to cover— Mike Germanese

Say what you will about Nebraska but winning on the road in Lincoln is a big deal for the Fighting Illini. Expect Illinois not to be fazed by Beaver Stadium. My pick: Illinois +18—Jay Holahan

The Fighting Illini already have two AP Top 25 wins under their belt, including one of those wins coming on the road, thanks to their defense who are only allowing 12.5 points per game. On the other hand, Penn State has been a complete team thus far, boasting a top 10 offense and defense. The Nittany Lions will put an end to Illini’s undefeated season with ease in Happy Valley. Take Penn State covering the number—Matt Girard

No. 3 Ohio State at Michigan State (3-1, 1-0) (Ohio State -23.5)

Peacock, 7:30 p.m. EST, Sept. 28, East Lansing, Mich.

I got to see running back Quinshon Judkins at the Peach Bowl last year. So far with Ohio State, the Ole Miss transfer is averaging nearly a first down per rush. Michigan State is improved but not enough to keep it close with Ohio State. Take Ohio State—Kyle Golik

I like Ohio State by at least 24 points here. I am not high on Michigan State or quarterback Aidan Chiles. Ohio State -23.5—Brett Fine Jr.

Michigan State transfer QB Aiden Chiles has a turnover problem with 7 interceptions before October. Every time Chiles drops back fans hold their breath, and now he will do it against an outstanding OSU defense.  Quarterback Will Howard looks to have fixed the Buckeyes QB problem from a year ago. Ohio State—with Emeka Egbuka, Jeremiah Smith, Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson—have too many weapons for MSU to compete with. This game should be over by half and OSU covers the number—Mike Germanese

If OSU is the "best team in the Big Ten" they must show it in East Lansing. This is their first true test after having a "cupcake-ish" start to their season. My pick: OSU -23.5—Jay Holahan

The Spartans might be ahead in the Big Ten Standings and will face the Buckeyes at home, but they are coming off their first loss of the season and will have to slow down the nation’s No. 5 offense. Ohio State has averaged more than 550 yards of total offense per game and has averaged 52.3 points per game in 2024. The Buckeyes will have no problem re-adjusting to the physical play of the Big Ten in their first conference game this season. Ohio State wins and covers—Matt Girard

Minnesota (2-2, 0-1) at No. 12 Michigan (Michigan -9.5)

FOX, Noon EST, Sept. 28, Ann Arbor, Mich.

Michigan seemed re-energized and got back to the basics. The blueprint for the Maize and Blue will be simple—eat clock, run the ball and play nasty defense. I don’t feel Minnesota is good enough to keep it close. Take Michigan—Kyle Golik

I think Michigan might be starting to find its identify after last week. While the Woverines' limited pass game keeps a ceiling on their offense and could prove worrisome against the OSU’s and Oregon's of the B1G, they shouldn’t have a problem handling the Minnesota’s of the world. Michigan -9.5—Brett Fine Jr.

Michigan had a big win over USC last week, 27-24, after scoring with 30 seconds left in the game. The fact they won is still mind boggling after managing only 32 yards passing. The offensive line looks to have finally built some cohesion and started opening holes for the running game. Minnesota comes in ranked 15th in rushing defense and will need to stop the run and force Michigan to pass if they hope to win this game. Minnesota won't be able to stop the Michigan running game which means it should be another big Saturday for Michigan's new number RB1 Kalel Mullings. Michigan covers the 9.5—Mike Germanese

Michigan won a controversial game over USC last week, and I think they'll handle business at home against the Golden Gophers. My pick: Michigan -9.5—Jay Holahan

The Wolverines proved they didn’t need a passing game to upset the USC Trojans last week, rushing for nearly 300 yards as a team. The Golden Gophers proved they couldn’t stop the run last week, giving up almost 300 yards rushing in a loss to Iowa. Look for more of the same this week in Ann Arbor, Mich. Michigan will stay undefeated in Big Ten play and will cover—Matt Girard

Washington (3-1, 1-0) at Rutgers (Rutgers -2.5)

FOX, 8 p.m. EST, Sept. 28, Piscataway, N.J.

This is as close as it can be. I don’t know how much to buy in the Apple Cup, but I feel Washington is getting closer to clicking under first year coach Jedd Fisch. Take Washington—Kyle Golik

I took Rutgers as 3 point underdogs last week and I’m gonna continue that trend, despite them being favored. Washington clearly took a step back and Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano has these boys playing hard. Rutgers -2.5—Brett Fine Jr

Rutgers running back Kyle Monangai (457 yards rushing, 5 touchdowns, 152.3 rushing yards per game) will have another big game. Rutgers has yet to get the respect they deserve and will look to prove they are not the same team they have been in past years. Washington has the second-worst rush defense in the B1G and is going up against the best-rushing offense in the conference. This makes it a bad matchup for Washington. Rutgers covers and moves to 4-0 and 1-0 in the B1G play—Mike Germanese

We saw what happened when one former Pac-12 Conference team came East to face a Big Ten team last weekend, and I think Greg Schiano's Scarlet Knights will be ready to put their product on full display this Friday. My pick: Rutgers -2.5—Jay Holahan

Rutgers just might be the surprise team in the Big Ten this season after notching its third straight win last week in the hostile environment that is Blacksburg, Va. The Scarlet Knights are averaging more than 400 yards of total offense per game and averaging nearly 40 points per game thanks to a balanced attack. Quietly, the Huskies are also averaging more than 400 yards of offense and have the No. 11 defense in the country. Weird things happen on Friday nights, but Rutgers will stay undefeated and grab its first conference win of the season. Take Rutgers to cover—Matthew Girard

Wisconsin (2-1) at 13 USC (USC -15.5)

CBS, 3:30 pm EST, Sept. 28, Los Angeles

Wisconsin is in disarray since quarterback Tyler Van Dyke went down. I don’t feel Wisconsin has an identity

and it gives USC an opportunity to get back on track. Take USC—Kyle Golik

USC's performance against the run was concerning last week. I think they win the game, but Wisconsin may attack the trenches and keep this game close with their backup QB. I like USC to win, but not by 16 or more. Wisconsin +15.5—Brett Fine Jr.

USC is coming off a tough loss and will look to rebound at home against a Wisconsin team who will be without their starting QB Tyler Van Dyke. Quarterback Miller Moss will find himself with time to throw the ball to one of the best WR rooms in the B1G. Wisconsin coach Luke Fickell has tried to bring the Air Raid offense to Madison, Wis., and it is just not working. Wisconsin fans are growing impatient, and this game will do nothing to ease that. USC wins and wins big. Take the Trojans to cover the points—Mike Germanese

Now that the Trojans have experience coming out East, I expect them to correct their mistakes and win big at home against a Wisconsin team that is reeling early. My pick: USC -15.5—Jay Holahan

The Trojans might still be figuring out what happened in Ann Arbor last week, but taking on Wisconsin at home should help them find some answers. USC is averaging more than 450 yards of total offense and 33 points per game, while the Badger defense is surrendering more than 300 yards of offense and 23 points per game. USC will bounce back from its loss to Michigan and cover—Matthew Girard