Week 9: Sharp Money Doesn’t Lineup With the Public Favorite

© Reese Strickland-Imagn Images

Each week I will comb through the college football slate to try and figure out what games look to have the ""sharp" or respected money differing from the public money.  With the hope of giving you this added information to help you before you place your wager.  

No. 11 BYU at UCF (UCF -2)

This Big 12 Conference matchup has BYU traveling to Orlando, Fla. for a matchup with UCF. The game will be at 3:30 p.m. EST on OCT 26 on ESPN. BYU comes into the game undefeated and atop the Big 12 . UCF started strong by winning their first three games, since then they are riding a four-game losing streak.

The public has been placing their bets on BYU all week with all signs pointing to a Cougar cover. BYU opened at a 1-point favorite but the line has dropped all week and is now resting at UCF -2.  The line moved UCF's way despite BYU getting 88 percent of the bets. The job of any book is to make money so why drop the line making it easier to take the presumed favorite? The simplest answer is the respected bettors are laying their money opposite the public money. Or professional gamblers are laying large amounts of money on UCF instead of BYU causing sharp reverse line movement.  These bets force the books to continue to move the line up unit the sharp money stops coming in and it's starting to look like -2 maybe -2.5. UCF is that number.

No. 3 Penn State at Wisconsin (PSU -6.5)

Madison, Wis. is ready to welcome No. 3 Penn State to Camp Randall for this Big Ten Conference showdown. Penn State will be trying not to look ahead with No. 4 Ohio State looming to avoid the upset in a perfectly set-up trap game. Wisconsin comes into the game on a three-game winning streak. 

Penn State Opened as a 7.5-point road favorite and has received 79 percent of the bets. But just like the BYU game, we saw the line move in the opposite direction, going from the 7.5 through a key number of 7 to 6.5.  With almost everything pointing toward a Penn State win again we will see the linemakers make it easier for the public to take the favorite. It appears that the larger bets coming from sharp bettors are going the way of Wisconsin. The opening line fell within hours, meaning the professional bettors jumped on right away. The quick line drop slowed the sharp money.  The steady 6.5 line says that despite the heavy volume, Penn States paints the picture that the books know at 7 or above the sharp money will jump back in.