Why the Florida Gators Won't Fire Billy Napier in 2024

©Matt Pendleton/Gainesville Sun-USA TODAY NETWORK

The Florida Gators are trying to avoid a fourth consecutive season with a losing record, something they haven't done since 1935-1938. The Gators will be facing an absolute gauntlet of a schedule with seven ranked opponents heading into the season. The Gators are really in for a long season, or so we think?

Stealing a Win Somewhere

Florida seems to always pull something out of their figurative hat when no one is expecting it. In the past few years, wins against No. 7 Utah to open the season as well as No. 9 Tennessee in Gainesville the following year made people question whether the Gators were a team that could make a run. While both of those teams played less than satisfactory the rest of the season (according to Gators' standards), every year some team overlooks the Gators and it doesn't go well for them.

Looking at the schedule this year for the Gators, they open the season with No. 19 Miami. While technically some consider a Florida win an upset, this game is in the Swamp and with it being the very beginning of the season, the Gators will have the stadium sold out. It might be the only game in which the team and fans have their hopes up the to the brim. A win is fully possible here for the Gators.

Another possibility is Texas A&M when they visit the Gators in Week 3. The Aggies are currently No. 20 in the Associated Press (AP) Poll and will likely be even higher when they play the Gators. However, if Florida gets through Miami and Samford just fine, a Texas A&M upset isn't out of the question. The Aggies will be under new head coach Mike Elko and will still be finding their footing in the early part of the season. If the Gators could steal this one, it could be a massive win for Gators head coach Billy Napier and his future.

The final game that could really be an upset (not that any of them couldn't be an upset) would be the Week 14 matchup against the Florida State Seminoles. Currently, the Noles are ranked No. 10 in the country. They will not be there by the end of the season. With new quarterback DJ Uiagalelei transferring in from Oregon State, Florida State will not be as good as last year with Jordan Travis. The supporting cast will have to prove themselves with the departure of Keon Coleman who now plays for the Buffalo Bills in the NFL. While the Noles will have the home-field advantage with this game in Tallahassee, it truly could be an upset for them as they couldn't run away with this one in 2023. That tends to be the case whenever these two get together and the game becomes must-watch television.

Why Won't the Gators Fire Napier?

In many predictions of how the Gators will do this season, often the final record this season has been 4-8. That is just one game worse than last year. If Napier was able to get a surprise win as well as win all the games the Gators have a chance at winning, the Gators will be around the 5-7 or 6-6 mark. That is more than enough to justify keeping Napier for a fourth season when the schedule is rated as the most difficult in all of college football. Even if he doesn't do great this season, there are two reasons why they should keep him in 2025.

The first is that the schedule does not get much easier in 2025 for the Gators. Most of the teams on the schedule this year will be on the schedule next year with the locations flipped, including every Southeastern Conference opponent. Outside the conference, Miami and Florida State return to the schedule with locations switched. The only changes are Samford and UCF, which will be replaced by Florida A&M and South Florida.

The second reason is if they wanted to, they could hold off on firing him, which would make the buy out less and the could wait for whoever they really want to come available. At the moment, there isn't any top coaching candidates out there waiting to be hired. On top of that, they would have to pay him a significant amount due to his seven-year contract. The last factor is that 2025 may also be a flush due to the fact that other teams are several years ahead of the Gators. It might be better to let it all fall on Napier if they are just going to fire him anyway. That way it doesn't mar the first year of new head coach and the Gator fans don't want him out immediately.

It is very hard to judge how successful a team will be when they are several years behind and haven't exactly played a down of football just yet. However, one thing is certain—Napier has a higher chance than some realize to save his job. He just needs to actually do it.