Aug 295 min read

Will Penn State Make the 2024 College Football Playoff?

Penn State predictions — © David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

It's a new era in college football with the expanded College Football Playoff. Penn State has been the darling for many analysts saying the Nittany Lions are a major beneficiary of the expanded format. Will Penn State compete in their first CFP this season? Let's take a look.

Week 1: at West Virginia Mountaineers

Historically Penn State dominates this series and is looking to win its 50th game against West Virginia. Last season’s final score is a bit misleading considering the garbage-time touchdown quarterback Beau Pribula scored with six seconds to go in the fourth quarter. For West Virginia, it has a great ground attack that features NFL-caliber lineman like Wyatt Millum and quarterback Garrett Greene has an edge to prove he is amongst the best players in the nation.

Under head coach James Franklin, this rivalry game have historically been thrillers and close to the end, but Penn State finds a way to win another against West Virginia.

Record: 1-0

Week 2/Week 4: Bowling Green Falcons/Kent State Golden Flashes

“Money Games” that will fund these Mid-American Conference athletic departments.

Record: 3-0

Week 5: Illinois Fighting Illini

West Virginia should have the Nittany Lions ready for another thriller. Illinois has always played Penn State tough, even when the Nittany Lions have a decisive edge in talent. Examples include the 1994 contest where arguably the greatest Nittany Lion team of all time needed the full 60 minutes to put away Illinois and who can forget the nine overtime debacle in 2021. Penn State should win, but struggle to do so.

Record: 4-0 (1-0 Big Ten conference)

Week 6: UCLA Bruins

Penn State caps a three-game stretch for UCLA that includes LSU and Oregon. The weary Bruins might need to be reminded they are from Los Angeles after this one.

Record: 5-0 (2-0 Big Ten)

Week 7: at USC Trojans

If Penn State would like to make the CFP, it needs a second marquee win on their resume. Head coach Lincoln Riley has the Trojans headed in the right direction and the defensive staff it assembled. But former Nittany Lions and current Trojans defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn won't have the ship righted for this one.

With Franklin and his team being creatures of habit, how the cross-country trip affects their routine will dictate how they do in this one. Penn State will get a signature win on arguably one of the most anticipated days in college football in quite some time.

Record: 6-0 (3-0 Big Ten)

Week 9: at Wisconsin Badgers

Head coach Luke Fickell also has Wisconsin going in the right direction, but his and offensive coordinator Phil Longo’s flavor of the Air Raid offense is still a work in progress. Former Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke will make this one interesting and a thriller to the very end, kind of like the 2021 Week 1 affair that saw Jaquan Brisker intercept a Graham Mertz pass to seal the win 16-10. Penn State should make it out of Madison, Wis., victorious in four of their five previous to Camp Randall.

Record: 7-0 (4-0 Big Ten)

Week 10: Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State is the "Lucy with the football" to Penn State's "Charlie Brown." One of these days Penn State will catch Ohio State, but this will be another “moral victory” for the Nittany Lions over Ohio State.

Franklin will drop to 1-10 against the Buckeyes and questions will emerge about his ability to win a significant game.

Record: 7-1 (4-1 Big Ten)

Week 11: Washington Huskies

The greatest spectacle college football has to offer: The White Out. Last time Penn State and Washington played was in the 2017 Fiesta Bowl, Saquon Barkley shined in his final game as a Nittany Lion.

Penn State got another home-run hitter in running back Nicholas Singleton. Don't be surprised if Singleton and running back partner Kaytron Allen have a big game against Washington.

Record: 8-1 (5-1 Big Ten)

Week 12: at Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue is one of those teams that can pull the upset at inopportune times. Ohio State encountered this in 2019 at Ross-Ade Stadium. These Boilermakers, under head coach Ryan Walters in Year 2, have Hudson Card at quarterback and one of the best offensive line units in the Big Ten Conference. This isn’t like the Jeff Brohm-coached teams that will pass you into submission. A lot of players remember the 2022 season opener in Ross-Ade that came down to the wire. Experience along with aspirations to play in Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship will fuel Penn State to a win.

Record: 9-1 (6-1 Big Ten)

Week 13: at Minnesota Golden Gophers

If there was a team who can play spoiler to Penn State it is Minnesota, and the Golden Gophers have done it before. Heading into the 1999 matchup, Penn State was 9-0 and ranked No. 2 in the country, but the Nittany Lions missed many opportunities to bury the Gophers. Minnesota was able to hang around and shocked the Nittany Lions with 24-23 victory. While that game has no bearing on this year's Penn State team, Minnesota's 31-26 upset in 2019 in Minneapolis has more similarities to this year's game. The then-undefeated and No. 4-ranked Nittany Lions fell to a Gophers' team that had experience at quarterback, had a great offensive line and had a dual threat at running back.

Fast forward to this year and Minnesota once again has a veteran quarterback in senior Max Brosmer, a two-headed rushing attack in running backs Darius Taylor and Marcus Major, and a top-5 offensive line unit in the Big Ten. All the makings for the trap, but Penn State will survive a scare here. It also wouldn't be a surprise if the Nittany Lions drop this late-season tilt in Minneapolis.

Record: 10-1 (7-1 Big Ten)

Week 14: Maryland Terrapins

The job head coach Mike Locksley has done in College Park, Md., is fantastic. This will be Senior Day in Beaver Stadium with a potential Big Ten Championship game berth on the line. This could potentially be the final home games for Allar, Singleton and Allen. Maryland will put up a fight, but this is a one-sided rivalry and Franklin has owned the Terrapins—out-scoring them 112-29 in their last three meetings.

Record: 11-1 (8-1 Big Ten)

Big Ten Championship Game?

Penn State will feel the impact from the division-less Big Ten, and even if there were still divisions, Ohio State would get the nod for the trip to Indianapolis due to head-to-head matchups. Most likely, Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State will all be 11-1, leaving the Nittany Lions as the odd team out.

Prediction: Ohio State vs. Oregon

College Football Playoff?

At 11-1, Penn State will be a lock to host a CFP Quarterfinal game at Beaver Stadium in December. At a minimum, Penn State has to be 10-2 to make the CFP, and at least win two of the three games between West Virginia, USC and Ohio State. Some might say Penn State could lurk at the bottom of the playoff at 9-3, but that's doubtful.

Franklin will get a win in Beaver Stadium in December with the home-field advantage and advance to the semifinal. That is where Penn State will either lose in a rematch against Ohio State or against the Georgia Bulldogs—depending on the seeding.